Member Info for TrekMadone

From 90p to 97.5p in 5 days is more of a mini-rally that divi buying. Divi is approx 3p after 15% deductions if in ISA.

100p has been support over last 5 years so now it’s resistance. Just need to get above that an hold it so we can consolidate a new trading range. Be nice to look back at what a buying opportunity this was!

Jiffy,

For hedge reporting look up Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) under IFRS9. It’s a reporting of opportunity gained or lost as opposed to hard currency. It often results in miss reporting of P&L by the journo’s that use robotics to grab headline numbers!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Alltorque,

I have already derisked here and only have some profit left in. Took out over 100%. The shares I have left are from new buys of 540 to 590. Was hoping to get 600, and 700p for them but hey you can’t win them all. So they are showing red atm.

That said I didn’t sell any today as I think this is skittishness because people were assuming we should have had a TU by now. As posted before it’s not due until the end of the month.

This share is wildly volatile up and down on relatively low volume. Few shares cuts both ways.

Imo the trade today was to buy into the close ready for a ‘bounce of common sense’ tomorrow. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 540 maybe even 550 into the close.

That said I didn’t buy any either as I have made enough here to pay for our summer and autumn holidays. So happy to leave the few I have for a bit longer but not buying anymore here or elsewhere for that matter.

Taken the cash and fully intend to spend it. Isn’t that one of the objectives?

Hopefully when we get back off our cruise YU will be 800p again! If not I am not bothered as it’s a cracking business and the delivery will come albeit a just a bit later.

This dip in energy costs after the Ukraine war peaks would have tempted many ending contracts to fix now. Don’t forget gas has also gone from $2 to $2.55 and back to $2.34 just in the last month. So that’s plenty to tempt businesses to fix. Many would also be using the smart tools for the first time to set contracts. So the point is even if the numbers come up short in this TU they should be on track next time around.

Debt as always is an unknown but I read across to the housing market which has been surprisingly resilient. Macro outlook is improving so again if it’s a miss this time around any dips could be a good buying opportunity.

But I am not risking ropy internet to trade here! Will leave the few I have in to ride for a while and see how it goes.

Good luck one and all.

Usual caveats

Trek

Slowly slowly ever so slowly. Was ever thus! Then there will be a boom!

This mcap is punching well above its weight in achievements and progress! But zilch is in the price.

Think I’ll continue to wait!

Usual caveats

Trek

Here’s a thought. Ukraine and Poland unification!

https://youtube.com/shorts/iys_FtS6Sgo?feature=share

Trek

Chasing gas price as well gone fro 2 to 2.5! 20% is unhedged yet.

Be nice to get to 98 then 95 after 3p divi. Historically this one and SEPL have been pretty divi agnostic recovering within a day or so. Now that would be amusing this time around!

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Trek

ONC - I just grabbed a few at the bell. I held them for ages and eventually traded down and out for a small loss. Their remaining immunoDiagnostics business makes 80% cash margin! They have the majority of top 10 Pharma’s on their books as they have the biggest antibody data set in the world! Now they have managed their cash position they will imo return to +100p. But I think the rest will be bid for now. Hopefully early signs that the US is taking an interest in Brit biotechs which are at a nadir!

CSN - I always had them as a t/o target. Held many years ago and thankfully exited at a much higher sp than they inexplicably are today. They have done well buying all the non core no one else wants! Been a good divi payer.

CAML - gone below 200, Director made a small buy. I am thinking of selling and moving the money to elsewhere. About evens after the divi. The copper story seems to be fading! Looks like It will take a Ukrainian rebuild to kick start metals. Always weary when GS push an agenda!

Not too late for a TXP trade for those so inclined! Last orders sub 60p I reckon as news approaching.

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Trek

Looking at a cash machine now as immunodiagnostics reap 80% margins without the non core overheads. It’s a shame though as given time and funding this business had the potential to grow substantially. The rest will be sold soon imo as it’s a clean business.

Usual caveats

Trek

Prigo is claiming Bakmut as Russian. I reckon it’s a ploy to hand over to the regs and run for cover. He can then blame the army when it’s completely retaken by Ukraine.

Bakmut is surrounded by hills. You wouldn’t want to be in there if it get’s surrounded by artillery!

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Trek

Jiffy,

Have a look through the last Corp ppt … May 9th

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_4f580065c9f9acf0ccf37db791dc031c/dgoc/db/557/4647/pdf/DEC_Corporate_Presentation_May_2023.pdf

Slides 15-19 cover hedging, there is also more detail in the Appendix. You should look at the hedging in context of the whole business model as opposed to any given epoch. Then you will see how the debt runs off along side the asset depletion and how revenue is generated.

If you want capitol gain there are better plays out there. DEC has lagged Shell by 30% the last year. Shell is on a recovery while we have declined. But DEc has paid out a significantly higher divi than shell.

It may be that your recent purchase has been timed perfect for the bottom of DEC in which case you bag divi and capital growth or it may not be. Only hindsight will tell. But the point is this isn’t a standard E&P model but the market seems to basket us in with the rest and reward us or penalise us disproportionally.

I have traded my average down here to a tad under 94p and am now sitting for a long term income play. I have an equal position in TXp which I believe will deliver capital gain this year. But I would add profits into Dec esp sub 100p for the income which I see as the lowest risk high yield that I have found listed in UK.

Usual caveats

Trek

My brother has his own media company they did a lot of work across Europe. It was tough after Brexit his work dried up over night! But can you believe from a team of 14 mostly youngsters they overwhelmingly voted leave.

He then had to reduce the workforce by over half! Oh the irony.

It’s since picked up because as an entrepreneur he has replaced work on the bloc with other revenues now because the red tape and duplication of following two sets of rules made it too problematic for a small business. So he redirected his work over time. But the growth still hasn’t resumed to what it was and he actually got a boost from covid.

Anyways remember this for a laugh, came up on my YouTube….

https://youtu.be/5qsSZXvYDuQ

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Trek

Amazing liquidity here. Can sell 100k in one hit and close to the mid! That’s a good sign 🍀 !

Usual caveats

Trek

Could be End of the month. They haven’t even said end of month. No date has been given.

Hope you guys all topped up I reckon we are off for 6’s again!

Will be selling my additions in 6’s and just letting a few ride for results unless they land before!

Usual caveats

Trek

HH88.

Go to your App Store and download ‘Brave’. It’s a browser like safari but has built in add blocker. I have been using it for years. Even if you just use it for LSE it’s worth it!….oh and the Daily Mail as that site has to be one of the worse for pop ups!

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Trek

YOU - hit 10 there’s always a pullback. Shown it’s hand buy sub 10 for 12 which will be easily achieved ahead of electioneering!

There aren’t many stocks that can virtually guarantee a 20% upside. Folk chase 10 baggers and loose money whilst missing the obvious nibbles that’s right in front of them! That and income is how you survive in this space. Oh and a luck! The 10 bagger punts have to be precise!

TXP could be last orders now for that 60p buy 70p sell for the 4th time! That’s a huge trading return if repeated. News due soon so you can sell into the run up. I am there for the end game with a ‘huge’ position hence I know the stock well. My target is over 200p with a bumpy ride! Traders can play it quite easily!

Usual caveats

Trek

Diversified Energy Company PLC (LSE:DEC, OTCQX:DECPF) was today boosted as its finance facilities got a favourable nod after its syndicate of fourteen banks reviewed the North American oil and gas firm’s borrowing base.

The borrowing base was retained at US$375mln though its facility which is described as a ‘sustainability-linked loan’.

Stockbroker Peel Hunt in response repeated a ‘buy’ recommendation for DEC with a 175p price target that suggests some 90% upside to the current price of 91p.

As previously announced in its first-quarter trading statement, Diversified Energy ended the quarter with approximately US$110mln of liquidity.

In today’s statement, chief executive Rusty Hutson, Jr. commented: "We are grateful for the unanimous approval from our 14 banks of the US$375mln sustainably-linked loan borrowing base.

“Their support reflects confidence in the quality of our assets and our ability to acquire additional high-quality, mature-producing assets.”

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1015465/broker-repeats-buy-rating-for-diversified-energy-after-sustainability-linked-loan-is-retained-1015465.html

The 110m liquidity is in addition to the 375m borrowing base. That’s a huge amount for the next acquisition(s) which would be non dilutive. DEC only buy quality that is net accretive in terms of well ‘run off’ v debt and cash revenue. The Tanos acquisition was even hedged higher than our existing assets!

I think they have made it clear debt next. But all said the SP will imo recover under its own steam they obviously needed stock to grab Tanos. Now they don’t for the next one.

I think a lot of the drop is due to placees hedging stock to profit from a pull back. It seems to happen all the time now following a placing in London!

Gas tail wind. Get the US debt deal done and we are due a bounce back to 105 imo.

Usual caveats

Trek

Malcy comments on DEC…

“ Nothing new here but a generally pleasing announcement that all the company’s bankers are 100% supportive of their loan book with regard to DEC. As always DEC have the most sophisticated tools of the trade, in this case Sustainably-Linked borrowing and shareholders can rest assured that their company is well financially structured for future activity. ”

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/05/oil-price-dec-petrofac-uog-edr-ujo-eog-and-finally/

Trek

Gonna close blue today I reckon.

Grabbed a few to sell at+6

Usual caveats

Trek

Https://youtube.com/shorts/Fx1N1-dZ83U?feature=share

I drought it makes any difference though! 🙄

Trek

What this divi means to us income junkies!. Well being quarterly, well covered and having increased annually since IPO. The company has also returned +100% to shareholders in that period. So that evidence ticks box one which is ‘does the company have a proven track record of payouts’. Yes! Tick!

We also have a too BoD aligned with shareholders and Rusty has a huge holding. Tick!

So that’s the history which sets the scene for the future which is the next question. ‘Can the company sustain its dividends going forward?’

Well we now have 14 banks that have backed DEC and they say yes. We have a cash buffer and a revenue model which is hedged first and foremost to pay down debt and generate income. It’s NOT intended to play the peaks and troughs of the market.

There are economic growth opportunities and aquisition opportunities in the US plus alternatives in renewables. With the ability to raise capital and demand for energy there are numerous options. So we are not in net decline and even if we were the debt is paid and the income flows. Tick!

The next future element is macro. It’s always an unknown but we have had a massive outlet in the US as US gas is replacing Russian gas esp for friendly Europe. The US have now overtaken Russia and Qatar as no 1 gas exporter.

That is significant because it acts as a valve for any US or world recession. Taking out Russia means we have a bigger opportunity. Then add in general population growth and energy demand + gas as a transition fuel and the future market macro is as good as it gets.

That is a pretty compelling macro for gas but as with any stock you can only make your best judgement based on the data. So it’s only ever a half tick!

Being in the US gives a further macro edge geographically due to its minimal land borders and sea protection. Politically as a stable democratic country and then economically from a growth perspective helps plus the USD is still the king currency.

What about income. Well it’s pretty easy as the sock pays quarterly. Assume you hold it in an ISA and the FX stays as it is.

100k shares will give you approx £1000 income per month after the taxes

50k shares £500 pm

25k shares £250 pm

Etc

Or of course you can compound it! In which case if the SP stays the same you double your money in approx 5.5 years!

We could go on about the Commetrics. They are well covered in the last company ppt.

Atm though given the sp it comes down to sometimes you just gotta follow your gut!

My previous largest income position was in GLO. It was a high yield energy stock. The SP was in its knees and as far as I could work out from all the data significantly undervalued. I kept buying and taking the income. It was then taken over for a 30% premium!. I voted no as that was too cheap but the BoD took the money. Anyway it just shows the market can be wrong and us PI’s can win!

Usual caveats

Trek

YOU - remember I tipped these a short while back around 850p. Have now had two days of good gains. Looking to move through 1000p and then on to 1200. They are the survey kings. Ducks lining up!

Usual caveats

Trek