Member Info for TrekMadone

Hi gee,

It’s a fair comment. Me to. But I think they are looking for this CLN consolidation vote to go through first.

I will email Mike and ask when we can expect something more tangible for investors.

It’s easy holding at 3p but I feel for those at much higher SP’s and so often the BoD’s do not tune into those holders concerns!

Usual caveats

Trek

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PAY/holding-s-in-shares/15975993

Trek

IMO it’s not the model. As pointed out it’s been delivering for 7 years.

The data is showing that energy levels are at or near saturation point in Europe. In the UK NG futures are now down below 56p a therm!

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

We could be entering negative gas prices similar to what happened to oil. Thankfully the situation is better in the US where we can still land contracts for well over $3

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html

Remember we had only 80% gas hedged at the interims for 2024 and 50% NGL. I understand that people go on about the hedging but that is the model and if you don’t like it I don’t get why you would invest in the first place. It’s not exactly been a secret and you will find that most energy companies hedge to some degree.

There may be some respite to to gas prices from higher temperatures in the summer and also from the old adage that ‘the cure for higher energy prices is higher energy prices’ and likewise for ‘lower prices it’s lower prices’. Those companies that haven’t hedged production and the many that run at much higher unit costs to DEC could be really feeling the pinch.

Atm whilst the SP is a suffering at least our operational metrics and unit costs are more than sustainable at the current price levels. We have just increased the divi, declared the next divi and had director buys. Rusty also has a sizeable stake in the company and we have had a clean bill of health from the banks.

I just wish I was buying now but I sure am not selling. This phase will pass like the last dip in oil price and those stock’s affected then recovered pdq thereafter and getting 17% back!

PAY also made a recent acquisition. Have cash, increased divi, SP is in DUMPS yielding +9% on future basis

Insurers like LGEN, PHNX, MNG etc you could get 9% yield last week. I hold MNG at +10% yield.

Like I keep saying it’s a bear market the actual FTSE index(s) doesn’t reflect the depressed levels of some stocks which are down disproportionately on low volumes of sells and an absence of buyers due to global concerns and that has dropped prices down across the board.

It’s either a case of taking a chance and selling to come back later or sitting it out. I think it’s the market itself more so than DEC in isolation.

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Trek

They should go to the CBI for help! 😬

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Trek

Luke in hospital critical after meeting Putin behind closed doors. Shouldn’t have gone! Likely had his strings cut for not sending his army to their deaths!

https://youtu.be/oAlxPh33xeI

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Trek

Oops Memorial Day in US tomorrow. Whit Monday on Euronext. I think Tokyo open though! Lol!

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Trek

From cnbc app

“ WASHINGTON — House Republicans reached a tentative deal with the White House on Saturday night to raise the nation’s borrowing limit and avoid a catastrophic default on U.S. sovereign debt.

“We have come to an agreement in principle,” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Saturday in the Capitol. “We still have a lot of work to do, but I believe this is an agreement in principle that’s worthy of the American people.”

McCarthy said he spoke to President Joe Biden twice on Saturday about the plan. “I expect to finish the writing of the bill, checking with the White House and speaking to the president again tomorrow afternoon,” said the California Republican, “Then posting the text of it tomorrow, and then be voting on it on Wednesday.”

The deal, he said, “has historic reductions in spending, consequential reforms that will lift people out of poverty and into the workforce, and rein in government overreach. There are no new taxes and no new government programs.”

Biden called the deal “an important step forward that reduces spending while protecting critical programs for working people and growing the economy for everyone.”

He also offered a preview of the White House’s argument for House Democrats reluctant to support a bill that appears on its face to be a Republican victory: In short, it could have been a lot worse.

“The agreement protects my and Congressional Democrats’ key priorities and legislative accomplishments,” said Biden, adding that it “represents a compromise, which means not everyone gets what they want.”‘

Probably USD up, markets up, oil up, BTC up, gold down on Monday. Asia will give a clue.

Doubt it will last though!

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Trek

Well done evi, that’s an awesome entry and you get tax benefits for that juicy divi in your sipp. My average is 93.6. Started at around 120! Ouch!

But DEC now my no 1 holding and I intend to add more!

Usual caveats

Trek

They view the only way as getting inflation down is to get the currency up with interest rates. That’s coz like just about everything else we import inflation!

This mess has been decades in the making in the name of cheap. Where we have offshored, friendshored and tried to get everything from outside coz it’s cheaper.

The alternative would have been to invest in the UK and even putting up taxes in good times to finance huge infrastructure projects. Roads, hospitals, rail etc. This country can produce food, fish, energy and we even have enough water that we could export it if we invested in it!

But each successive government after the other is more interested in ‘me’, ‘sleaze’ and engineering their next term rather than making a real difference. But then everyone seems to want stuff now and cheap even if it’s tack rather than growing a meaningful society.

I see on the BBC news we are even looking to Africa to recruit teachers and give them a £10k incentive. Too many of our youth wannabe YouTubers I guess rather than have a meaningful career. Mind you it’s difficult enough just trying to teach a Sunday school class so in some sense I don’t blame them!

I have been impressed with Bidenomics in the US. It’s an extension of Keynesian economics and they really are looking to onshore and develop their economy and resources. It’s a long haul for them as their social infrastructure lags ours but at least they have a meaningful plan and have made a start.

Meanwhile in the UK we level up whatever that has meant and has ended up with more backhanders and fraud!

There is so much opportunity and talent in the UK we just don’t have the leadership or wherewithal to direct all that energy.

We have now backed ourselves in a corner with interest rates as we don’t control the flow of stuff so we are left with one short term tool.

Think I better stop there!

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Trek

I read about the copper mines coming on line and increasing prod earlier.

‘ At the same time, recent mine-supply disruptions seen in Panama, Chile and Peru have taken “a back seat,” said Michael Cuoco, head of hedge-fund sales for metals and bulk materials at StoneX Group. Some big new mining projects have also come online recently, and analysts from Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. are expecting a small copper surplus this year.’

I consequently sold my CAML as it dipped below 200 support. Ended up with loss ever after the divi. I do still have PXC though hoping they complete bond finance soon.

DEC, my biggest holding has tanked below 90 although I am confident they will keep the divi. Whilst we may be heading towards a recession they now have a global market as Freeport LNG plant comes on line and Europe build LNG terminals rather than what was previously overwhelmingly US. So I hope the demand even if there is a recession nets out meaning they can still shift gas volumes as their price is hedged.

The flow of shipping containers from Bloombergs supply lines indicate we are already in a recession. China have actually been a net importer of boxes which is a pretty good sign stuff ain’t going back out again!

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Trek

must be true if it’s on a post it note.

data says people aren’t catching or dying of cv like they were before. these are facts with an audit trial.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

unfortunately facts don’t appease today’s woke/qanon/trump truth/holocaust was a lie/china is cool/ukraine are all nazis/flat earth conspi******s!

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trek

Partnering with an AI tech company to develop its immune related predictive responses from its vast database would be the next logical step now we have cash.

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Trek

Armchair trader coverage….

https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/duke-royalty-shares-2-4m-profit-instor-solutions-exit/

Trek

Andy,

I understand what you mean but my point is. If your business is valued by 11 banks at 86k and even if it was valued yesterday at 120k it’s irrelevant if you need to sell and all the buyers will offer is 50k.

Doesn’t matter if its generating 100k in revenue every year even. If folk will only pay 50k that’s it.

So you either sell or sit tight.

That’s kinda where DEC are. The market metrics are king not the traditional analyst valuations irrespective of their nuances.

Buyers will only pay 5ok so the agent has to drop the price to sell.

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Trek

Ace,

How is cash a constraint when the have 54% margins , debt run off a renewed rcf and backing from all their banks.

You may have been right to call the drop but you don’t get the balance sheet and yet you hold. You should’ve sold ages ago.

I am here for min 5 years so see this as a long term buy and hold.

If I didn’t think I got this or was unhappy I would just sell. I did at Dest recently. Better to sell and move on rather than expect your 0000’s to miraculously change into something you are happy with.

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Trek

It’s not about value it’s about buyers and sellers and the London market algorithm which is driven by and drives sentiment. It’s only a small percentage of the mcap that is traded and yet the price distorts significantly.

Pay is another example 600p to 400p. Increased divi but no buyers in this market.

The insurers are yielding 8-10%.

There is no confidence in the market that growth will be there so folk aren’t buying and for those selling the MM drips the price until there are takers for the stock. That’s how it is in a bear market.

When the macro improves so will the markets as buyers return but for now at least we have a yield unlike many other stocks that are just falling or worse need cash!

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Trek

It’s not just DEC albeit energy stocks have a wilder distortion.

Hi machin,

Yes I had a large position there from around 8p and exited the final tranche in the mid 20’s. Sold some in 30’s as well. AK is a v clever CEO. They will do well. I sold as didn’t want to face another suspension which after the pervious one looked likely due to the size of the deals they were pursuing. AK’s ‘hassle factor’.

Good luck if you hold them. I moved my money to SEPL and here. I tend to trade and then use the proceeds to built my income pf.

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Trek

The market will catch on soon.

“ The researchers in Canada and the US say AI has the power to massively accelerate the discovery of new drugs.

It is the latest example of how the tools of artificial intelligence can be a revolutionary force in science and medicine.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-65709834

Years of R&D for IQAI to develop their IB. The potential is about to be realised.

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Trek

‘ putins silence is deafening. ’

He should be shouting about his successes! 🖕Lol!

https://youtube.com/shorts/pZwbgF7H4EI?feature=share

Trek

Well I didn’t expect that after xd! Added a few today under 90 and will pick up more as I can.

I hold SEPL and they tanked from 130 down to 85p and are now 111 again. And there hasn’t been any significant news in between. They also pay a high quarterly yield.

I think once the US debt fiasco is resolved we’ll claw back up. 🤞

Usual caveats

Trek