Member Info for Thunder2040

Not saying vaccine fails, saying it won't save this year, and I am saying 2 years losses like this and a mass of debt means dilutive equity action at best. People keep buying shares on theories of recovery and stories, instead of looking at the company fundementals. Thomas Cook went bust, yet we all go on holiday? People will go on holiday again yes eventually and in good numbers, great. Just because you see a concept and believe an idea doesnt mean you should just buy any old share in that sector to follow it!

Last year plenty of people went on holiday in summer but it was still a terrible year financially for TUI....£2.7bn loss (for context 2019 was a €893m profit). This year winter was worse than last year. So unless summer some how magically smashes it out of the park (seems unlikely given we are in lockdownand no travel until June) the company could still make a comparable loss AGAIN. The goverment aid has bailed this company out, but has conversion options on a 25% equity stake, and repayments begin in 2022. I think you underestimate what it going on here. The majority of imported Covid cases into the UK were a a result of 18-30s going on holiday in Europe, non of them have been vacinated yet! Key scientific advisors are not going to allow a 4 month lockdown to unravel so people can sun themselves in Spain or Greece rather than Brighton!

Equity holders are at risk of dilution or wipeout IMO IF summer is not a spectaicular success and my issue here is that the board have not warned properly on the risk that it could well be a total washout. The CEO just dumped a load of stock for heavens sake! Societe Generale just dumped 5% position as reported today. They just shut another approx 50 stores. Wake up please these are not actions of a company on the up and up.

Loads of brokers are saying sell and they are usually the first to pump a lemon, I really hope PIs dont get stung on this but some of the people here don't seem to grasp the basics. If you think what I am saying is rubbish, go on the latest set of results, check the balance sheet. Discount goodwill, add up total assets and subtract total liabilities - you will see that this company is in a deep deep hole with negative shareholder equity that is getting worse. To make matters even worse the current ratio, that is the amount due within 12 months in less that 0.5, that means twice as many current liabilities as assets.

Please do me a favour and do some research.

I don't blame you dubious, there is a blasé attitude around here towards the risks. I note the news that they are closing more stored and honestly that is well overdue as no one is booking holidays via a shop these days. The balance sheet looks to be in serious trouble to me based on a current ratio of less than 0.5. If this summer does turn out to be anything less than strong they will ened to issue more equity or get bailed out again, but I would question the ability of the business to survive yet more debt.

Stowthorns, absolutely make your own choices, I was just alerting you to the fact the CEO sold shares and the balance sheet is crippled.

Have sold out their entire stake, another vote of confidence there haha

Lol, I admire the sense of humour. Without the German state intervention this company would have had it before now. I think the fact the Director flogged a load of his shares over £4 also says a lot. Think the board should come clean, as a lot of people getting carried away here the last month will be in for a rude awakening.

You are a mug if you are buying more of this. Look at the balance sheet. There is no equity left, and this news of travel bans and rising cases in europe, with increases in SA variant will wipe out the summer bookings 100%. I would go short and look to be closing out sub 200

The trend continues, I assume this is move higher today is based on the inflationary expectations we have been seeing.

Apologies, got mixed up I was thinking I was posting that on IMB. I have a lesser position in BAT, its got more growth potential but is less undervalued

Baffled - what is your read across to tobacco though, and specifically IMB? Would be interested to know. I like Telcos and copper - as well as tobacco. This company's tactic to reduce spend on vapes will lower the execution risk IMO.

CSD, dividends should in theory not matter. Cash paid out = movement in SP on ex div. I think I read an earlier post on here where someone suggested the movements were not equal, however I maintain my confidence that it is, regardless of short term trends. The reason the value stocks have been low for so long is simply that money has been free for too longer. Its a product of ultra low cost of risk free capital, tech co's can just sell a story. That is about to end and there will be a huge rotation. Inflation will come, regardless of whatever anyone says. Lets speak again in 6 months and hope we are north of 3 here. GL

*$30

I have a position in BAT and IMB, more heavily in IMB as I view that as more undervalued. To those that are selling out for gains, congrats. But I would say the macro conditions thats are unfolding are highly supportive of tobacco stocks IMO. The inflationary pressure across the globe can be covered with price rises here (see Aus where the market value of cigs is increasing even at $0/pack) and demand is robust even in time of uncertainty. The high yield of the stocks also offers protection - I see much larger gains over the course of 2021.

I have opened a long on this share. Reason being, is the macro economic situation coupled with the lower risk strategy of the board to tilt towards combustible tobacco rather than vapes seems attractive to me.

On the macro front, tobacco has a low price elasticity of demand, and inflation can be passed on with releactive frequency and ease to the consumer (see Australia, the market value is expanding at $30/pack). In fact Tobacco is a decent hedge against rising inflation. The debt pile will also benefit if we get inflation, but rates remain low, so the gearing actually helps aplify the investment case and returns.

The current yield seems safe enough and will start attracting in value seekers soon, so expect this will motor upwards.

Unfortunate news but I have just taken some precautions anyway. Temporary issue only I suspect if true

I actually thought it was the miltary involvement that probably made it efficient. They should have been involved from the start.

Glad they delivered you immuisned and back to the BT message board in good time fleccy, I find your post to be fairly reasoned! Got to say I am a bit miffed at how much this has retraced, some perma bears knocking about BT for sure.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vodafone-towers-ipo-idUSKCN24I1UL

So UBS are leading the Vantage Towers float for Vodafone - quite simply ridiculous that they have put out that note on BT

Numis have just come out and said switch to Vodafone haha, at least they were honest about their intentions

Fleccy, I was invested in vodafone partly on the back of UBS Polo Tang's ultra bullish note on them not so long ago, despite thinking on fundementals the value in BT was far greater. I have now firmly decided the guy has a totally vested interest and is literally talking rubbish about BT - Voda is trading on >16X earnings at last check. Its criminal that they are putting out notes like that - saying the tax impact is net negative - what they failed to say was no other competitor is likely to get the super tax benefit to the same degree as BT so releative to peers its a big win. The Chairman story is being spun by some media outlets as some kind of feud, but in reality if it means a faster stake sale of Openreach - its not a negative. Jansen made Worldpay are super efficient company so I prefer his modern approach. He also put his money where his mouth is in terms of share purchases. Some massive games being played here - I will not listen to the brokers. P/E is vastly below 5 year average and BT is a good inflation hedge - that is more than good enough for me as the recovery takes shape. Openreach returns news will ignite the rebound still further. GL