Member Info for Thunder2040

I did say they were insolvent, I wasn't wrong. Joke of a company this.

Well, I say rights issue, I mean is there an appetite really? They have the Russian investor they could tap further in a placing. The German government funding as conversion options, so there are a few other leavers they can pull as well as the aircraft sale and lease back - but in reality the debt level is just not natural, its been saved by the state basically.

I have listened to what they said (the board). My read is the board are pumping the share price up to as high a price as they can, pre half year results I expect them to do a rights issue, sale and leaseback of aircraft or debt for equity swap. Most of which seem to be bad for existing shareholders. I could be totally wrong but it is obvious the debt level is too high now. I don't think it will fail as a company, but my focus is on what return an existing shareholder would get in the short and long term and I am not convinced about it.

My point was not about them going on holiday, more about introducing variants back here to portions of the population that have not had a vaccine! Some people have a very odd way of reading posts the way they want to see them.

I don't see how the debt is sustainable. Interest payments are now as much as 2019 earnings...so unless they really have managed to cut costs and get revenue back to pre pandemic levels during a global pandemic...it doesnt make any sense to me

Well letting it rip through our age group is stupid that is my point.

I am 35, based on the latest UM vaccine calculator I will have my first vaccine shot between 11/05/2021 and 19/06/2021. So before people get all excited about flying off and reimporting variants from the 17th May, surely it is only fair that everyone lets all younger people actually get immunised.. and have the 3 weeks gap after...as it was us that sacrificed a year of our lives for this, just like the rest.

All I am seeing and hearing is desperate travel company CEOs blatantly ramping up their companies telling everyone its all fine.. Well I prefer to listen to the science, and if that means we go a bit slower, I am sorry for the likes of IAG and TUI will have to wait a little bit longer for normality.

'Asked on BBC Breakfast on Monday what the most likely destinations will be when foreign travel resumes, he said: "Cyprus have come out and been very positive, Greece and Turkey have come out and been very positive, and Spain again.'So all TUI's key markets. Brilliant news! Funny isn't it, all the actual science and politics aside, it just needs the UK Director of a travel company to pump his biggest markets to really unlock things. You have to laugh.All the travel companies coming out saying yes, its all fine. Well I tell you what isn't fine. The fact that they are technically insolvent and suspended all guidance so they don't have to report any actual figures about solvency.Half year results in May are unavoidable though, that's when the they will let the cat out the bag.

By not issuing guidance they can continue to pretend everything is fine.

'Downing Street sources have claimed Mr Johnson will not commit to reopening travel to popular European holiday spots due to fears of a third wave of the virus, which has seen infection rates surge in Italy, France, Germany and Poland.

These destinations will likely be out of reach until at least August, but Mr Johnson's framework will not rule out the possibility that some international travel could resume from May 17.

Only places with high vaccination rates, low prevalence of mutant variants with good capabilities for detecting them and low infection rates are likely to make it on to the low-risk 'green list'.

The first holiday spots expected to reopen include the Cayman Islands, Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Bermuda and Barbados due to advanced vaccination programmes on the Caribbean islands.

The US, Maldives and Malta are also among the contenders due to their higher vaccination rates. All three have rates of about 45 per 100 people. By comparison, the UK's vaccination rate is 53 per 100 people.

Other possible destinations are Gibraltar, Israel, the Seychelles and the United Arab Emirates.

But quarantine-free holidays to traditionally popular destinations such as Greece, Italy and Spain may be some way off amid the EU's sluggish vaccine rollout.

The countries' vaccination rates are all around 17 per 100 people. Most of the Continent is likely to be 'amber' until July or August.

Mr Johnson is expected to tell Britons to hold off on booking holidays until the situation is clearer. All non-essential overseas travel is currently banned under Covid-19 restrictions, with fines of £5,000 for those who do not follow the rules. '

Same. I also forecast no free cashflow haha. Its a con.

Jefferies: TUI not built for this crisis

Slumping summer bookings are weighing on travel group TUI (TUI) and cashflow will remain ‘materially negative’ until 2022, says Jefferies.

Analyst Becky Lane reiterated her ‘underperform’ recommendation on the shares, which fell 6.2% to 344.7p yesterday.

Summer bookings have deteriorated 81% amid the coronavirus crisis and Lane highlighted the risk of ‘additional liquidity requirements in 2021’.

She said debt levels at the group were ‘unsustainable’ and there was long-term covenant risk.

‘TUI’s high fixed cost base, capital commitments and more levered balance sheet are not well suited to the current crisis, or in a backdrop of potential industry changes,’ she said.

‘TUI seeks to reduce gross leverage in 2021 and return to normalised levels of profitable growth in 2022 but we forecast free cashflow materially negative until 2022.’

Well tell me where I went wrong with that one, supported with numbers?

As per the investor presentation March 2021 available on the website:

Page 37 FY19 Profit after tax €416m, including net interest charge of €77m
Page 34 FY21 projected interest cost €400-450m - so how exactly is this company a going concern at the moment!?

Needs operation performance equal to or better than FY2019 to break even based on my estimates - so where is the free cashflow generation to repay the debt in FY 22?

Total joke of a situation here. Board need to come clean

DYOR

Just been reading that Chile has locked down its borders, even with 35% of population having had a vaccination they are seeing a parabolic curve upwards again. Read that vaccination needs to be at 75% to supress infection rate in absence of lockdown measures - how on earth this and the airlines are climbing with world infections on the rise is beyond me. I look at company specific factors, and TUI sums just do not add up- I actually think the beard should comes out and warn if there has or is going to be a material deviation from expectation here. They didn't provide any financial guidance this year for a reason IMO and I think a lot of people are being tricked to think they are in a better position than they are.

This is getting dragged up with the wider market and expectations of general consumer spending rebound, total disregard for the rising Covid cases in Europe that may well prevent large proportion of holidays on the med this year.

Don, come back here in 6 months and we will see where the share price is at? I simply did my research and decided to pass some of it on, we are allowed opinions, by or sell. That is what the message board is for. If you want to give me the long thesis I am all ears.

The Oxford vaccine has reportedly 10% efficacy against the South Africa variant.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/03/17/astrazeneca-vaccine-fails-to-protect-against-the-south-african-variant/?sh=14649bac6526

I would question the wisdom of flying off around Europe this summer where were are told 10-15% of cases seen in France at the moment at this variant. The countries that need tourism came out with some fighting talk yesterday and the travel bosses are talking a good talk - but the reality is being masked here at the moment.

Final warning call - go check what a Moody's Caa1 rating is - debt has 'Substantial risks' - outlook negative. Driving factors for negative rerating are deteriation in market conditions.

Societe generale declared their 5% positon end of Feb, they have now sold the lot at a loss.

Call me a canary in the coal mine.

Tui's predictions for the summer season came in a trading statement that underlined the scale of the collapse in the tourism market due to Covid curbs.

The firm's winter bookings fell 89% compared with a year ago, with November and December hardest hit.

Income in the three months to the end of 2020 fell 87.8% year-on-year, from €3.86bn (£3.4bn) to €468.1m.