Member Info for Thunder2040

The loan has a conversion option..so I fully expect equity holders to get diluted.

UBS Have its at 170p, Berenberg 250p, Jeffries 78p, Barclays 300p - I think you will find its not just me that knows it.

Its in your post history, I mean, you call me out - but have any of you lot actually looked at the balance sheet? I am sorry if its rattled you and you have money at risk - but the company is insolvent.

It was you that didn't seem to understand the rights issue here recently Masaimara. I mean, did you just buy this because you like ice cream and sun or did you actually look at the severe lack of free cashflow vs the debt?

Mordashov was buying this week, assume he is pumping up the VWAP in low volume market so that the future conversion price of the bond issuance, due this week is higher. Just my take

Lol yeah, I mean money talks I guess. Maintain its worth about £2 tops, we will see.

The truth will out as they say. There is the H1 results due 12th May - will be hard to disguise things then.

Massive ramping from holiday firms and airlines this last week which is just vastly irresponsible IMO. Reading reviews of TUI recently, it appears they have decided to make giving any form of refunds particularly difficult which has damaged their reputation - I guess they have no choice given they are literally coming to the market on a quarterly basis for more cash.

Their message - no restrictions, fly where you want, no testing, everything is fine. Its irresponsible but the PIs still swallow it and buy the shares.

When reality hits that travel has to be carefully managed and restricted for another 6 to 12 months, the masses will be left holding the bag.

TUI, Easyjet et al are high volume businesses, embarking on a lower volume future. TUI has massive overheads and low margins plus a balance sheet that is leveraged beyond belief. It needs to potentially refinance debt in an environment where interest rates are expected to rise soon.

I just can't see the bull case here at all. But what do I know, the share price is on the up today. The rationality of markets at the moment is strange!

Its on the news tab of this site as well. Its not even big news to me, said it before, equity is worth very little here once the debt is restructured. Yes people will go on holiday, yes TUI will still probablu be there, no you won't own much of it.

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1618302591923960000/broker-ratings-jpmorgan-upgrades-bab****-to-overweight-from-neutral.aspx

JEFFERIES CUTS TUI PRICE TARGET TO 78 (100) PENCE - 'UNDERPERFORM'

We will see if anyone buys the bonds first

Even after Friday’s drop, the company is valued at 8 times 2022 EBITDA including debt – well above a pre-pandemic historical average of about 5 times. Shareholders hoping for sun should bundle up instead. LOL

Volcano, I know you are a contrarian but this one is a basket case be warned

Well no smoke without fire, but this is also assuming £700m is even in the right ballpark, could be far less. The risk around the covenant on the net debt to EBITDA is what I think needs watching. The revision to profitability would impact that and I think that is the angle Barclays have looked at when they said sell. Sure it will come out in the wash soon

Spindler, the way I read one of the articles was that they had got them away at 4.5% -5% which seems cheap - no doubt that indicates someone thinks this is a good investment. I suppose if its being guaranteed by the state in effect the bonds offer more scope for returns, the equity however, is grossly over priced. I will leave people to invest as they want, was just trying to warn people that I see real problems in the shares.

Well its already trading at a substantial discount to NAV then, some of that write down must be priced in. What about the impact on covenants? Will this cause a breach?

I was very tempted to buy in last time and did for a short time, but the one thing I didn't like was that the margins seemed a bit thin.

Agree with others, they should kitchen sink this and get it all done and out there.

For now it isn't investable for me as they just aren't giving the clarity required

Yeah FireAnt, it is beyond a joke what Directors of listed companies get away with these days!

If the market cap is £1.1b and the touted write down is £700m, where does that leave the value in this? Falling knife

I was surprised the conversion is at a premium. No two ways about it TUI has friends in high places. The balance sheet is totally crippled though, as I have pointed out many times here recently. Handle with caution.