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Someone is dumping into the rise..anyone with L2 can prob. see it in action better, but the sudden jumps down are likely big orders. Its almost disturbing how little credence the Indian government law is getting via this SP

*now open, apologies

Thanks for the link Jef - that implies a dialogue is not open between Cairn and GOI - I tend to think a base position of $1b has been established, they need to bridge to $1.7b, lets see...

Dark_Knight, this will sound frank but screw the masses and the markets...that is my current mood. Do the maths on it, and have faith you are correct...its all we can do.

Apparently because they didn't get time to read it...it has been absolutely powered through, if that isn't an indication that they need this sorted ASAP nothing is. Strong hand here held by Cairn.

Ask yourself this, why even propose this bill if they don't already have good faith that a settlement will be reached. I expect producing assets could be a make wait in such a deal, but the legislation is being fast tracked, can only mean money is forthcoming soon IMO

https://www.livemint.com/economy/rajya-sabha-approves-tax-amendment-bill-to-end-retrospective-taxation-11628506895651.html

As I suggested Volcano..some games being played here

I think there are a number of ways to play this share at current price. I am opting for a buy and hold until resolution strategy (rightly or wrongly). The reason being is that the company has no debt and the Egypt acquisition will have a largely fixed price, so less exposure to oil and gas spot movements. I think Cairn are currently positioned defensively ready to tough it out on this appeal and get the money they have been awarded. Suspect some games being played in the meantime, will just sit those out as a settlement RNS could land any day.

https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/will-cairn-energy-shares-keep-rising-with-indias-amended-tax-law-210809

I find it almost insane that people are talking down the offer of 1b USD as some sort of non event or negative, as though the SP should be falling - if the board do accept that offer these shares on a sum of parts must be worth min of £2.60+ People should not talk themselves out of making a tidy profit on here

I am already long after my fag packet calc this morning as expected it to shift quicker, but I have just done a sum of parts on the Egypt asset, cash on hand, settlement and exploration bits and can say I am very comfortable with price paid today.

The angle given in the FT article by one advisor is that the offer of $1b is too low. I mean could Cairn get more from selling the claim? I don't understand how the share price is still this low, when the offer is equal to current mcap!?

Cheers Seav - you a long term holder? I have had a real head scratching day trying to value the actual operational assets here..its not easy to deduce the value of the Egypt assets at all from the info available

Has it been passed though, or proposed in the lower house? If you read the Cairn statement implies it is not enacted..

Yeah I am not sure how long legislation takes to pass into law. However on the being in a rush thing - slightly disagree, as asset seizures in France and America is not a good look for them - that is what has forced their hand IMO. A lot of key countries have said the award is enforceable against assets I believe.

Yeah I have been researching this more this afternoon and I am more confident now that Cairn will realise a material sum from this having read around the subject. As someone else on another board suggested, its akin to a sovereign bond in asset terms. Could be sold to a recovery firm in order to monetise it. All the time it ticks on, interest is being accrued. Good result would be the full $1.2b plus say half the interest via a settlement agreement.

Seems the market doesn't trust a word that the Indian Government says ...money talks as they say. Looks like this will be a case of sitting tight and holding on for the actual cash in the bank.

Here is the tree shake..yawn

The fact that they are selling all their producing assets makes it harder to value this as well..