Member Info for Thunder2040

Warthog, dilution based on the closing price pre announcement which was 157p approx I think. You can work out the overall theoretical ex issue price a few ways. If you get the full half year accounts and check how many shares were in issue prior to new issuance, multiply by 157p to get the market cap. Add on the capital raise proceeds in correct currency, then divide by the total new share no. (old shares in issue, plus new shares they issue). Then compare it to the average price of your own holding buy buying more or not, then you can see how in or out of the money you are. The reason its a theoretical ex issue price price is because in reality there are other things to consider, i.e the extra business value you get from having the increased liquidity and the opportunity it can unlock etc.

I have not got time to do the maths for you, but the theoretical ex issue price is above 115p for clarity

Its means the underwritten element and dir purchases are proportionally larger than the open offer, so you can't prevent dilution totally by taking up your max subscription option..but can reduce it through participation

A placing and RI are two different things. You have been diluted to some extent at 115p without any ability to participate, unless you buy in the open offer which is a n option not a right, but I didnt read how many shares will be placed in that open part. Either way a capital raise was on the cards as I said, so I am not surprised. Someone can work out the theoretical ex issue price by taking pre raise market cap, adding proceeds and dividing by the new no. shares.

Good luck

Tankships was the cashcow, and now even that is struggling, so I really don't know what is going on here. This is a different management team to the one that built it up - I really wonder now if they know what they are doing. The dive ship debacle was not clever either.

Has been jam tomorrow for the last 2 years here, I got out at a small loss a fair few months ago as I lost confidence in the new directors to turn this around. It was on a growth type multiple previously - now still looks expensive.. could drop towards £200m market cap in my opinion. Earnings do not support any price much higher.

Its not the SFO issue that caused this pullback IMO, I think they might well do an equity raise and that is why results have been delayed whilst they work out what they want and at what price.

What is the proxy going to vote for in the North Sea sale issue? Presume the big guns are on board for that too..

Its at a point now where its irrevocable on the Indian side IMO, as its had too much media time. If they renege on this now then I can categorically say no one is going anywhere near them with a bargepole let alone a investment fund and chequebook..which means we likely are getting a pay day, and I think the creeping price is starting to indicate this now

True, I like to think this has downside protection given we are buying cash plus fixed price production at sub NAV prices - but the oil market it on a stonker at the moment so its irrelevant I guess..unless of course we drill something, find more oil and then bingo, upside again - hence by earlier comment today.

They need to get drilling some of the prospects to add some other catalysts, its really starting to drag. If you look at the gains of oil producers, this is just sat still - very frustrating. Patience being tested for all of us I think.

I value the regular posters' contribution on here..also going to agree and say, if you think this is getting dragged out or pulled at the last minute you are in cloud cuckoo land tbh. I added another £11k on the dip today, to add to an already substantial holding. The opportunity here is too good to overlook. You are buying cash at almost less than face value when assets thrown in, will ride out any volatility.

Expect the money to drop this month - that is my prediction. Once its confirmed expected a SP of 240p mark

Must be some form of renegotiation of the fixed gas price contracts one would think, I hope management are looking into this.

People should remember that the figures mentioned have come from Petrofac, who are always going to try and lowball it. With a debt facility of £700m, its pretty obvious they can pay more than they claim, and a capital raise is not required for sure IMO. Will see what happens Monday, but think the price will probably continue to rally tbh

Fair play for taking profit, but this is severely undervalued, eventually going to be up at 400p region IMO

Paddy, that is a mistake, shorts will be bailing now and if that fine is below £200m it will be straight into auction tomorrow, you won't get a sniff

Forget the brokers, the short are back at the watering hole on time, buying back haha. Just do pre pandemic earnings multiple, manageable net debt and new bidding opps...that says this goes one way

Natural gas prices going through the roof, oil following - melt up! I think Petrofac should be rising off that alone let alone SFO resolution...

Mid day auction incoming, I think we can see what is going on here

The key reason this is a buy is that Petrofac should be able to bid on a lot more new work very soon, just as capex is likely to start cranking up with Oil USD80+ The fine be it £100m or £300m is what it is. But consider this also, they financial penalty that Petrofac has suffered over 4 years of not being able to bid on work has cost the company millions - the court must consider this...FV for me is north of £2, not going to take long to get there if a bit of patience is applied.