Member Info for Thunder2040

I have pencilled in the 28th as the day of the cash receipt, GOI have played a real dirty game throughout so would not surprise me if they find another excuse.

Form 3 was done by 5th Jan, so its been 42 days, no official announcement was made re@ form 4 as far as I know, so we still can't predict the exact date

'Post that, the entity concerned will have two months to withdraw the litigation and inform the Department via Form 3. Based on that, the jurisdictional Principal Commissioner or Commissioner will issue directions in form 4, stating that the tax demand orders shall be deemed to have never been passed. This order will be binding on the Assessing Officer (AO), who will revoke the attachment (if any) and issue a refund within 15 days.'

A critical question on petrofac for me is how exposed to inflation are they? Like are their contracts a fixed price or cost plus etc. Think the board should explain that a bit more at the next investor day or such given it is a huge market theme.

Broker ratings are complete nonsense, JP Morgan cut the price target to £2.21, that is about 5% above where we are now haha. If India cash is worth 160p they are assigning 60p a share to all other assets and cash - all very odd

Dilad, do you mind sharing how you calculated the 16th Feb? How the Indian government can think this drawn out debacle is a good advert for investing in their country I do not know - its our money that they seized ffs!

Luckily I only allocated a small amount to Superdry, I really rate Julian Dunkerton very highly - think he will get this turned around or take private. Given how its dropped like a stone, I have decided to sell half and put it in Boohoo which has been similarly pounded recently, so both have decent enough rebound potential and I have diversified my fashion position...the CEO at Boohoo was the guy that built Primark I think, also rate him. In fashion its very much about having gifted individuals that get the trends or the younger crowd, I think both Superdry and Boohoo get it, so inflation pressure aside, these will do well.

Last time I checked the Superdry flagship store wasn't in Ukraine - what an utter joke today here. I bought last week at 217p, going to be 20% before I even blink, is this AIM?

Baysil, the odd thing is here, if you want to hold after the tender, you want as low a price as possible for the repurchase, if you want to tender all your shares, you want as higher price as possible.

The tender offer will be at approx. market rate post cash receipt from India - so the company loaning the stock would gain but have to return the same amount of shares or cash equivalent to the loaning party..this is all just how I interpret it of course. The tender offer is more like a share cancellation in effect. It will just cancel $500m worth of shares at close to market value, reducing the shares in circulation, but increasing the NAV/share proportionally. The remaining risk discount for non settlement has diminished, hence why we are sat over 200p, I really think the share offer will be at about 230/240p but this can rise to 280p during time once Egypt shows some profits.

Because if you loan out the stock to a company in a low tax jurisdiction, they can tender the shares for the cash in the buyback, crystallise the gain without CGT and then return the funds to the lending party to settle up I suspect. It goes back to the point, the stock is on loan but has not been resold 'short' into the market IMO - hence why no disclosable short positions > .5% disclosed.

If stock goes out on loan, it doesn't mean its sold short? I.e it can be loaned to another entity and just held. There are no disclosed short positions, so I don't think anyone has been selling the loaned out stock, as the article alludes to. In actual fact it means its highly likely the settlement money is coming out way!

AA2020 - kudos to you sir for pointing that out -I was talking operational cashflow not freecashflow as you correctly point out - sorry about that. I had factored in capex but on a company wide basis in my thinking, I presume ramp up capex for Egypt will be far higher in earlier years but again I really don't know.

Cashflows aside though, if we want to use a multiples basis for valuing Egypt the operating cashflow is maybe more useful perhaps.

Its make or break time for the Indians, the world it watching I feel.

The buyback will be at market value post cash receipt whatever that is IMO, as it cant disadvantage holders who don't participate..maybe slight premium to get it fully subscribed.

Baysil - onboard with a fair amount of what you say similar valuation to you then circa £2.80 for the time being, but I really need to know if in the last RNS the Egypt figures were net to Cairn or if that was total production, isnt is a 50/50 JV?

The other thing that needs saying is they are ploughing in a lot of the retained cash into exploration, we do actually need some luck on the drills to get this firing too. I think they have shelved a second major aqui because of the high oil prices atm and lack of global capacity, doubt there are quite so many bargains going as 1 year ago - still the Shell assets we snared are clearly very very tasty - hence why Apache are also in the area - I rate them as an outfit!

The last post I made on here was after I gave investor relations both barrels on the privileged position of Directors selling to get their tax affairs in order ahead of a dividend (that they knew more about that us) that would cause the same problem for the rest of the holders IIs and PIs alike in terms of tax. After no response I threw in the towel and sold up. Well I had a gut feeling before the update that something good would come up and they would do the right thing by everyone... so bought back in the day before the update. The best news was the scrapping of the special and instigation of an open offer when the Indian cash comes- no wild spikes or forced sells now.

So I have benefitted from the share price rise this last week. I was encouraged by the Egypt news. Think they are spending more on it than they first thought as they see more potential returns. Not sure what is left in the kitty for acquisitions. Surprised with all this talk of post settlement valuation, no one has tried to value the Egypt cashflows. We now know the following:

Working interest production across the four main concession areas of Obaiyed (Capricorn 50% WI), Badr El Din (Capricorn 50% WI), North East Abu Gharadig (Capricorn 26% WI) and Alam El Shawish West (Capricorn 20% WI) averaged ~36,300 boepd during the period from acquisition completion on 23 September to year end 2021, with ~38% of the production mix comprising oil and condensate. This was within the guidance range for WI production of 33,000-38,000 boepd announced in March 2021.

Oil and gas revenue in Egypt from acquisition completion on 23 September to 31 December was US$56m, from net entitlement production of 1.5 mmboe of which ~38% was liquids. Oil sales averaged US$77.5/boe and gas sales averaged US$2.9/mcf. Production costs over the period were ~US$22m, or ~US$6/boe (on a WI basis)

Say it operated for about a quarter, net CF $56m-$22m = $34m or about £25m

With scaled up production I would estimate freecashlow of circa £100m for the year. Wasn't sure if they was all attributable to Cairn or not?

As I want to discount head office costs and apply a multiple, add it to the cash post capex and settlement and then add on the contingent £ to value this.

Anyone got any thoughts? My gut says market cap should be about £1.4b, so I think there is still 40% upside from here, circa £2.80 a share pre buybacks etc.

Its very hard to value the ongoing business here, its still just a sum of parts valuation type investment, but they could help us a bit more with it all when results come out in full for the year I think.

Also think gas is very much the place to be.

Hoping for the Indian cash RNS within 2 weeks.

GL

No Idea, but they are all involved in the Asian betting industry from what I read- I was trying to work out if they use Playtech services in their existing operations and want to block a t/o to maintain status que or whether they actually want to buy it. Aristocrat comments about not operating in markets that jeopardise their licensing would seem to be at odds with the unregulated nature of the Asian ops - this is just my rudimentary understanding, any LTH with specific knowledge of what Playtech do in Asia atm would love to hear thoughts.

I also read that Aristocrat were the only player that had already got approval to operate in the US, are the Americans going to let this group of HL/ Chinese investors into their market? Not so sure about that.

A lot of unanswered questions but I bought in Friday on the high level assumption that people would not be piling in about 700p if there was no value, so 570p seemed a fair punt.

I noted the comments by sum about this retracing heavily if the current bid is blocked, but I would say this also, in the pandemic Willhill was down at sub 30p, its t/o price was north of £2, so don't underestimate the future value of Playtech either..with the American market growing at such a clip, I can only see more interest in Playtech stock in the near to medium term.

PYUECK - so you think they have bought over a quarter of the company north of 700p just to sit on it? Interesting, not totally implausible...perhaps you are right but there are too many potential bidders for this not to get sold IMO

That was my thinking, Aristocrat need to engage the Asians and thrash out a deal for that section of the business.

I have left some powder dry in case there is more weakness but the vote for the £680 is on 02 Feb so not long to wait really

Lol Stefano - assume you mean to raise more funds to buy this, as opposed to a dog haha!