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As I suspected, no bid. But a silver lining of sorts, £200m+ adjusted EBITDA for H1, any bid could likely have undervalued this IMO. Time to ride out the short term storm and keep eyes on the long term prize.

Yeah, but that was yesterday's reported position, I think given the drop today someone was selling again, so will be very interested to see Odey position update tomorrow. If he is jumping ship before Friday, is it cold feet or something else? I think given the way the last deadline came and passed, given there has been no bid yet in the extension period, I do not hold out much hope anymore tbh.

Seems like a leaky ship, Odey selling out, hope everyone is playing by the rules

A small article on Playtech, given a long recommendation, 800p, DYOR:

https://www.smartkarma.com/home/daily-briefs/tmt-socar-inc-playtech-plc-sensetime-group-and-more/

The Saudis were trying to buy the oil and gas division recently, and there was a placing less than a year ago at 32p, do why exactly will the business be let go at 5p? Granted they need funding but this doesn't stack up.

So another delay - however there is clearly now a deal to be made, else they would have walked today. It would seem logical that they are waiting for something in order to make the bid..as it would not take this long to negotiate a price normally. My guess is they are waiting for the Caliente SPAC deal to go through, waiting to get confirm what % of shares can remain listed or waiting to hear if they will retain licenses to operate in US under new control- I think they are waiting on something that is out of their hands, but that a deal is on the table. Finalto sale could have been one hurdle that is now cleared. I feel the month extension can only be viewed as the required time to get the bid finalised given whatever issue remains.

Best of luck to all holders tomorrow, remember the long term value here is far above current SP, so any dips could be an opportunity.

As per this morning's RNS, sale of Finalto to Gopher has regulatory approval. Clearing the way for the TTB bid perhaps? We shall see. But the proceeds of £205m will reduce net debt significantly, so good news.

There is very low volume on reported trades, so someone is either filling a large order, transacting off book or playing around with the bid/ask to try and generate some selling. I have now decided that I will hold this regardless of whether there is an offer from TTB or not, as comparing the valuation here to other players like Entain and Flutter, in my opinion, it is now at a deep discount to FV - I expect if no bid comes in it could tank considerably, but there are too many interested parties here for there not to be more bids. I will hold my nerve and see where it take me.

Good morning

As we await the bid deadline on Friday for the TTB approach, there has been more recent M&A activity in the sector. Here are my opinions on the implications for Playtech:

Recently, MGM announced that it was buying LeoVegas for $607m, equating to 12x EBITDA.
https://wagers.com/news/mgms-leovegas-play-big-deal-with-bigger-implications/

Today, Entain have announced that they are buying BetCity - 'acquisition of BetCity, one of the Netherlands' leading online sports betting ... based on 10x BetCity's EBITDA for the financial year 2023'

So clearly there continues to be very strong demand for betting companies at the moment in the M&A market despite the headwinds in the economy. In fact betting companies are sin stocks, but have very defensive qualities. Playtech announced EBITDA for Q1 of over €100m or circa £84.5m:
https://igamingbusiness.com/playtech-hails-excellent-q1/

If the run rate of Q1 is sustained that would put Playtech on course for adjusted EBITDA of circa £338m for FY22. Now, given there is net debt in the business of circa €600m or £515m (as per 31 Dec 2021 results), an adjustment for the enterprise value should be made in any similar valuation of Playtech. However, we already know that there is an intention to pay down the debt with the Finalto proceeds - which are $250m or £205m, so post completion net debt could stand around £300m.

Taking the average multiple from the recent transactions in the market, 11x EBITDA, playtech FV is £338m x11 less £300m net debt say which equals £3,718 -£300m = £3.4b. This equates to a premium of 112.5% over current price.

At current share price of 519p the market cap is £1.6b, therefore to give the FV of £3.4b I equate this to a share price of 1,103p per share.

So now we really need to see a bid over 800p on Friday IMO or TTB are significantly undervaluing the company.
Good luck all, and DYOR.

Hi Marinella. I think also a lot to do with low volume, market makers certainly play around with the bid/ask on this a lot - although I did see a £40k sell this morning, so perhaps that was the meaning of the dip - regardless as you say, not long to weight to find out if TTB are bidding or not. Interestingly if you go on their website, they have a dedicated tab for Playtech bid and even a website set up for it - I do question why on earth they would go to that trouble and also risk looking rather amateur by not bidding after so much noise..which makes me think a bid will come, but with a twist I am as yet unsure of.

Moving towards the next chapter rapidly here, 6 trading days until the deadline lapses. I look at it this way, either they offer 750p or we make more by a sum of parts break up and realise the upside ourselves. Its a no brainer as I said if you look at the EV/Ebitda here vs Entain and Flutter, the other big US exposed players...GL all

Rookie, I do wonder if they are are currently working on a transaction and hence cannot RNS at the moment. Granted as someone else said, the portfolio is more complex that Serica so it would take longer to plan out the new tax strategy, but multiple times in recent communications the board has harped on about M&A credentials, I have a feeling they are working on something in that respect. All IMO, DYOR

@Phuketpunter - in respect of selling out, remember to buy low and sell high, despite the noise. This is the share you currently want to be buying in the oil and gas space due to material discount to FV IMO - it is counterintuitive but if you have done the maths and are confident in your positions this is the way to make money - do not chase shares that have 15% up days, in my experience, the ship has often sailed. DYOR and GL

I don't think this would move any higher at the moment at $150/barrel

comeonvog - made me chortle that one haha.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Now-Sees-Oil-Hitting-140-This-Summer.html

The worst part of the WT design is that is does not seem to acknowledge that firms like Harbour have hedges on that mean the oil price actually being achieved is far lower than the bonanza rates that seen in the spot market at the moment - yet Harbour will still need to bay 25% more tax on anything it makes? The banks get their money from the hedge, the government gets theirs from the tax, just shareholders forced to swallow the cost - this government is just obsessed with property wealth, if you try and make money from anything else, they just tax it to death.

Does anyone know why this does not seem to move in correlation with gas prices? Presumably they are too volatile for this to track them closely, but I noticed on oil.com there natural gas quote was up over 9% at last check. I believe the production mix here is nearly all gas, so trying to understand why it did not hold gains today? If you price it all up and take into account the cash and low decommissioning liabilities, to me this look about 50-100% underpriced?

This was 400p last year with Brent at $60/70. So Oil price has nearly doubled, and the share price has gone lower haha. Granted there is a hedge on circa 50% of production. But still, the hedges in 2023 are a lot lower. Only reasonable conclusion I can come to is that sellers must envisage the bottom falling out of the oil market - but how is that even possible either given the Russia sanctions and limited capacity as it is? Maybe they don't like the decommissioning liabilities. Its literally bonkers that these companies in north sea are priced on such lower earning multiples - large institutions with green agendas can't touch them, but if you want to make serious cash these operators are a snip at the moment in my humble opinion.