Member Info for Thunder2040

I guess they can buy on the open market up to potentially 75% as someone else mentioned, a takeover is not out of the question

Guoco Group Limited have 57%, gets me thinking, how much to buy the other 43%? What sort of premium would they need to offer to get a take private away? Surely looking at a price north of £1. In reality I can't see it based on current circumstances, but who knows.

I could be wrong, but I think if someone want to offload a big chuck it sits there getting partially filled, once the whole lot has been completed it usually appears, but can take takes to clear the big ones. This is all just a guess in this scenario, but the take away point is that the majority shareholder sees value in this price range enough to have stepped in and bought more.

Interesting, they usually RNS when they have finished buying so could just have been a top up or soaking up from another II. Some decent activity here this morning on the book too, £300k buy just went through a short while ago. The structure of the business remains the same as pre covid, so I do think this is a very strong recovery play, granted has to weather the next year or so of recession, but balance sheet looked ok to me - and the gambling reform is apparently going to allow sports betting in casinos which I think will be a huge draw in London, as people watch live sport and bet on it.

57% actually, I wondered is there a limit on what percentage they can own?

If they got £1.5b for the digital part, is the rest worth £300m? I would say so, hence if this transaction goes through, these shares are very undervalued at 180p

How much of Noble Group do these two hedge funds that are shorting actually control or own now, does anyone know? Are they looking to short the full Noble 8% holding? As others have said, there is a massive battle going on atm between the market and the shorts, they are clearly unloading into this strength but it can't last forever.

https://www.ft.com/content/e630a3a1-03ac-4526-83ac-16ff851067cc

To those who have hypothesised that the altnets will take market share I would say read that article. In telecomms scale wins, everytime, no exceptions. The fragmented altnets have literally no chance in the current environment, no pricing power on the purchase costs side or the consumer side, no brand, no nothing. BT will steam roller them and probably end up acquiring some of the half built networks in the process. BT trades on a forward p/e close to 6x, European telco average is 15x, and still the market wants this cheaper. Inflation and higher interest rates will decrease the pension deficit materially. The company's debt is long term, low interest, grade A. Internet is an essential service, so there is a limit to how much people can cut back. I remember debating people on this board back in the height of the covid sell off at about 99p - BT share price will come again, when everything is shaken out, it will still be here with a massive market share and owning critical digital infrastructure.

Dragi owns 18%, DK own 12.1% - 30% to trigger full takeover, and you think that is just a coincidence? The fair value of the sum of parts here vastly exceeds the current MV - critical fibre infrastructure is a prized asset and worth a lot. The reason they may have increased debt is they have been busy rolling out full fibre whilst they get the super deduction, front loading the capex to get the tax incentive. I give this 6-12 months before a bid is received. DYOR

Also they are talking about costs 'battering' profits, I mean its trading on a forward p/e of around 6 times ffs. Some odd commentary

Were these results not inline with guidance? It is excessive but has presented a useful buying opportunity so I can't complain too much

Bargain of the century here. Altice paid £2.2b for 12.1%, so that valued it at £18b in June 2022, they further topped up since. So now its magically worth about half!? I just don't see it. Load up

It is all about getting out of the UK now, if we can manage to get out with minimal further capex I will be very happy and this will rerate.

The cashflow vs market cap here is now insane - free cashflow of $2b. Great results and a very tight ship being run by our Linda. Happy with that.

Plebeens - I would tender offer them at current price, full £200m, see what they are made of

Thanks Tornado:

'From the filing of the registration document to Tuesday’s close, Var Energi shares have risen 11%, Aker BP is up 12% and Harbour Energy shares are fractionally down.'

Just grim that! Board need to be asked a direct and uncomfortable question on the Q&A tomorrow!

The only angle that I see as a reason to be selling at this price is the reserves replacement issue and the large PE sellers clearing out. The board are being too cloak and dagger about how long they can produce at 200kboed IMO, if they just laid it all out on the table you could properly calc the value and the only variable would become the oil and gas price - the selling by the PE crew most likely a temporary distortion. Also the comment about needed debt down by XYZ seems to be from a past era when this was over leveraged, debt level is not even relevant now, in fact they will likely go and load up on the stuff again soon to get more medium term production..so think the debt angle is the wrong tree to bark up

Didnt we already go over the short thesis, the two entities have only one short open per the tracker over 0.5%..they also have interests in other producers and in Noble which may or may not be distressed. As others have said they could be just forward selling shares they think they will come into anyway.

Best way to do *** packet value on HBR is on terminal value of future cashflows - 7 years of reserves at circa 200kboed (may be accurate or not), £300m a year decommissioning by their estimates, but I like to just divide the full whack over 7 years and assume the co in wound up (just an assumption) - on current POO and Gas prices say we did $1.8b of free cash, times 7 years (no discounting) is $12.6b, , subtract decommissions $5b, add in assorted other assets Zama etc $500m gives MV of ball park $8b. If you built in contingency and discounting you prob get to about $6b, which then starts to marry up with the Barclays £7ish target. All IMO

Say 66kboed for 1/2 year, so 130kboed for full year - is it growing? Also depends on their reserves, but still, it does imply we are below FV here

She call me Mr. Pumptastic, tell me fantastic. Expect this to get quite tasty in t-24 hours - start your engines