Member Info for Thunder2040

yeah so the debt and interest is totally wiped out if they sell north america on same terms first group did..so they have a huge lever they can pull..also rates aint staying here..economy will tank and they will cut

Agree WM is the problem child..but only 20% of total revenue is uk..and the new coach holiday business is on the money for me..uk will be getting a lot of holiday business with warmer summers and terrible fx rate plus reluctance to bother with the airports..I think management know their stuff here from my research..the shorts literally just crunch numbers and go after weak casflow and large debt..can see it from the other shorts they are holding..but this has guaranteed revenue in place so you can't get rid of nex..there is no short to zero here

Longerguy..you would be surprised what management can sit on claiming its not material..but I dont expect anythong bad either

Logically its the macros..the higher interest and wage inflation..margin was 10% now 7%..but it was explained they are holding down prices to regain market share which is clever and they can afford it..ticket prices will need to go up soon but still far far cheaper than alternatives..as I said..annoying thing is I am convinced it will get taken out cheap before full recovery..but its still good enough reason for me to be in here now

The reason p/e are buying up transport sector is that the revenue is very sticky...covid aside and its esg friendly. The shorts will close around 100p I would say..once higher wages are then passed through in new contracts wbd load factor is maxed out, the margin will improve and this will double imo from here based on historical ebitda. Their trust pilot score is very very strong. An often overlooked source of info..same with glassdoor..good reputation goes a long way

No one can buy in any size without concrete info on the results or outlook IMO..the radio silence on trading since October is not great from board...the cashflow yield vs the mcap is poor..so there is a sustained short attack here now...but why was it valued so highly in the last few years vs now - the only change has been interest rates and inflation so clearly they think its had it in current climate..which has presented a buying opportunity for contrarians..in medium term the sector is very promising.

can't hurt to market the us business..attract some interest and give the shorts a bigger risk factor..with no trading updates for months they are using fear to drive it lower

The shorts are here due to the leverage and realtively week margin - nex will be getting compressed at the moment with these wage demands. This being said I can't help look at the M&A activity in the sector atm and think this is a sitting duck eigher for selling the us business or the whole thing. Price of £2 gets it at the momrnt IMO. I don't want a dividend if levrrage on balance sheet is making it a short target..feel like a plan HAS to be announced at results day to defend against the shorting.

Saw this article today saying bus usage is down, not sure if this is contributing to the downward movement with NEX, but given its an international company would have thought limited impact:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64117338

Finance sorted, sales up, new auditor - looking strong here now!

I can'nae hold her captain, she's gonna blow.

Think it was just oversold last few sessions tbh, corrective move back to the 12 month bottom range of 39p approx.

I actually bought in recently but sold literally yesterday before this acquisition news on the basis of some things I had read here, that private investors did not trust the board to make good use of the cash. I don't think it is a great investment tbh - seems like they just want to deploy the money in anything to keep themselves in a job. Anyway, thanks to holders here for at least warning that it was a risk, saved me 7% in the short run. Hope it comes good for you here, but I have moved my funds elsewhere for now. I liked this as a gas play with no debt, now it has oil and debt I am not sure why you would invest in this rather than Harbour tbh. I actually took some Tullow instead, as they seem to have near term catalysts for the SP that will move it higher not lower. GL all

Fresh pair of eyes, I see this as a call option on Kenya with limited downside - operational risk on existing portfolio aside, Saudis and US will put a floor under crude at $70ish - granted a few months ago at 50p less attractive, at 35p its a very good punt for upside. Bull flags Odey closing and Cap markets postponed - you simply do not postpone that unless you have something close to signing. DYOR and GL - you lot have suffered a lot over the years so hope this comes good.

What odds a deal in done with the Indians for the Kenya farmin in the next few weeks? Probably been discussed here by long term holders before, but is the thinking that the capital markets day has been postponed because of Ghana gas deal and Kenya farm in? Odey closing is a huge bull flag for me, thick as thieves that lot, so if he sees this as a bottom, I think there is something in the pipeline.

How were they making an offer when they are the smaller co. by mcap by far? Surely it was more a merger of sorts. I see not benefit in merging with them, unless they have lots of fields ready for development that the cash could be used on?

Serica are mostly gas, and largely unhedged, so I assume the market cottons on to this soon and we see a rise given how tight the market is going to be and where prices are. I am positioning with this in mind. The MCap less the cash is too low.

The forecast keeps getting clouded for various reasons. What I want to see is some stability in the NS tax regime. The company would really benefit from issuing cashflow guidance based around various oil prices, taking into account the new taxes, so the uncertainty is reduced.

Brent and gas prices withstanding a severe market sell off, indicates to me that their is tightness in the market..as I have said the last few weeks, gas situation globally and in Europe in particular is going to drive prices far higher and Harbour will make good money after paying its taxes - hold for gold

If VOD keep the dividend where it is, I see this as a good punt. 9% yield with some capital upside in a few years, in a defensive sector. I have bought in here today, and feel like 86p is a bargain. Might go lower, might go higher, but can just tuck it away and forget it, unlike a lot of shares out there atm.

I think that it gets bought out before any of that. Think about it, hardly any debt, load of work and pipeline, cheap as hell, USD. GBP favourable. Market has missed the main point in the report from Sparta, which is unless they do a buy buy or get the SP up fast, its getting taken out. So I would not be worried about the board, their plan ain't getting more than 6 months IMO.