Member Info for Thunder2040

The WT in the North Sea will not go any higher IMO, as that would risk Harbour perhaps not having enough cash to pay its decommissioning liabilities and would stop virtually all new investment guaranteeing that total tax revenue would actually fall over the long run.

There are a lot of people that don't understand economics lashing out and spouting crap in the media - the government would do well to remember it has a responsibility to help the UK economy not destroy it

It will be turning red in a moment at this rate. The sellers are still in the driving seat, I question how this even got up to near £5 recently if they are this desperate to sell, it doesn't make sense that they are so keen now, but were not a few months ago - what changed!? Hope Harbour pull a rabbit out of the hat on the trading update to put a rocket up this.

I expect a trading update in November sometime.

Schlumberger and Halliburton both announced very strong results this week and market demand in oil and gas seems good, so I have faith that Offshore and Marine Support divisions will be ok in H2. Tankships also seems to be back up and running fine and don't seen any market issues for that one in H2.

My current concern is Specialist Technical - still no announcement of any major new contracts, and it turned a loss in H1, that is dragging on overall group profitability - as specialist technical has historically been higher margin - need some good news on a defence or nuclear contract win. That is the key in the immediate term for me.

Share price continues to grind lower, I think there is a seller on the books. Any disposal news between now and Xmas could put a rocket up this if it alleviates the debt concern.

Margin restoration and debt reduction are the key, I have some faith, but its still not out of the woods.

Looks like the huge Total Mozambique LNG project is going to restart in early 2023, I think James Fisher are involved in this, so could be a very promising sign if it does go ahead:

https://www.energyintel.com/00000183-adc2-d96f-a1f7-effad60e0000

The fact that the UK has resorted to windfall taxes at all, both on Oil and Gas and potentially on banking, will have profoundly negative consequences on investment for years as it sends a crystal clear message that if you make too much money in the UK, the government will take it away at the drop of a hat. The Indian's did a similar thing with Cairn Energy and Vodafone and in the end backed down and gave back what they took - but only after it had damaged investment in the country for years.

Keeping an eye on the sector in general, currently holding James Fisher stock, but looking to add Petrofac back to my holdings..what I really don't understand is with all the energy shortages at the moment, why there is not a boom in demand yet for wind, oil and gas etc

Probably the best hedge vs recession, hedge vs weak GBP, hedge vs labour government, takeover upside share on the market. Expect a decent update tomorrow, worth in excess of £2 easy atm

Could be old news but there are two shorters there now, Capital Fund Management SA joined the fray - wtf do they know - are they betting on a labour government grabbing all the profit or something? Very odd, stake here is modest but still miffed by this

Looks like a distressed seller to me now this

Market cap $4b, Thunder free cashflow estimate for 2022 $2b, so half the mcap in free cashlow...really is hard to fathom the market atm

Big Linda will Cook these pesky shorts...onwards and updwards

I agree PMO was a different beast, but if you don't have too much debt, the downside risk is far more limited with some hedging, so the peril of going out of existence is not here anymore. There are people connected with the company that want to sell out, and that does seem odd at first glance, but when you see that they are doing new deals, it really is par for the course exiting a stake when they company has gone public, they made their profit and want to reinvest it in new private equity no doubt.

The short position I have tried to explain my view, it is not any of the usual short hedge funds involved, it is a very specific short....'In a stock-for-stock merger, risk arbitrage involves buying the shares of the target and selling short the shares of the acquirer. This investment strategy will be profitable if the deal is consummated. If it is not, the investor will lose money.'

You buy on the way down or near the bottom, you sell on the way up or near the top..it is that simple. I guess if you are selling today you think we are still near the top and about to crash lower, and at a forward p/e of about 3.5x and about to be net cash I would say we are nowhere near that, and neither would Goldman or Barclays..

Short or not it is madness to sell this and go into cash, when they are about to turn the taps on and print yet more of the stuff to bail everything out. Someone is playing games here and it is just a buying opportunity if you look at fundamentals. How is contagion going to hit Harbour energy? A global recession with less oil and gas demand, well Europe just lost 40% of its gas supply and there is no new oil capacity - so I really think a lot of investors don't actually understand where you put your cash in this new world, it isn't cash in the medium or long term.

Someone is selling out, could be one of the pension funds, or the shorters again, but it is odd...net debt free soon, so are we saying that energy prices are going to tank and it was all media spin, we got loads of gas and oil for all? Just illogical.

It is speculation but with pretty solid reasoning IMO

Production is increasing, the Sept 22 investor presentation on their website has them at $95m free cashflow in Q2 2022, annualising that gives $380m freecashflow, agree, enterprise value seemed about £1.6b or something similar..I also saw that the shorters subscribed to a capital raise when Noreco bought Shell's assets - so they have a materially lower average than current shareprice which looks high to me. I agree, I don't want to buy Noreco, the very fact we are being shorted potentially just for that reason can't be good - but the board are intent on M&A because 2p reserves only have 7 years left and they don't want to be out of work. Buying assets at the top of a market is stupid, I hope that the board realise this, but I won't hold my breathe.

Eh, we pretty much worked out what the reason for the short was, don't see a problem with that, and tbh it stops the stupid rumours already.

Plebeens, the maths looks a bit off for that one though perhaps, as the Harbour short is what 0.7% so on mcap of £4b that would be £28m, which far exceeds the size of that stake in Suncor Energy, but they could have bought more I guess.

Noreco have Shell's old assets:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shell-divestiture-noreco-idUSKCN1MR21K

Seems to have a lot of Gas, and I guess its close, but still in different waters so they would get their geographic diversification

Good spot Plebeens, another possible target company