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No Taconic is not listed, they are just a list of their open positions.

They think Harbour are buying Noreco:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOR.OL/key-statistics?p=NOR.OL

That is my view

https://www.ft.com/content/686184ea-04f8-4141-a4f5-fca007d06132

The plot thickens, in 2021 they were long in Noreco:

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https://www.ft.com/content/686184ea-04f8-4141-a4f5-fca007d06132

Taconic Capital, CQS and Kite Lake Capital are among funds that own positions in Norwegian Energy Company (Noreco), the second-largest oil and gas producer in Denmark, whose shares have collapsed by more than 99 per cent since their pre-financial crisis high.

It is a risk arbitrage play I am sure of it, if it is they will have taken a long in the target stock - so if you can find out which oil and gas share they are buying that is the one they think harbour are after

It is way too specific to be about the sector, its something only Harbour has or does..I can only think maybe they think one of the holders is distressed and may need to dump, or they have bought some other instrument in relation to Harbour and are hedging it - I am not overly concerned tbh after conducting my research. I found that they were actually long on Shire PLC before they shorted it, so I presume they are only in the shorting game as a hedge of some sort. All just guess work, time will tell.

'Investors who use an event-driven strategy employ teams of specialists who are experts in analyzing corporate actions and determining the effect of the action on a company's stock price. This analysis includes, among other things, a look at the current regulatory environment, possible synergies from mergers or acquisitions, and a new price target after the action has taken place. A decision is then made about how to invest, based on the current stock price versus the likely price of the stock after the action takes place. If the analysis is correct, the strategy will likely make money. If the analysis is incorrect, the strategy may cost money.'

So what are they betting on - gas price cap, labour government, over priced merger - something else?

Did some research, their last declared UK short was taken out on Shire plc Jan 2016 and closed June 2016 at a loss looking at the share price. Interestingly Shire PLC announced a $32.5b merger with a company called Baxalta in Jan 2016. It say they are an event driven fund. Reading between the lines is this a hedge against an imminent merger, do they hold stock in a company that is a target. We know Harbour are after M&A - the plot thickens. It seems they don't routinely take shorts out on UK companies given the lack of other disclosures, so I am minded to think this could be a special situation play - not sure what yet though

@Potty - its the private equity crew selling I think, not so much people that have bought in recently

Well its not manipulation, there are sellers on the scales judging from the RNS, but they can't sell forever, eventually they will clear. In respect of the North Sea licenses, I think Harbour should be in for precisely none of these. The way that the Labour government is intent on a tax grab looms over any long term investment in the UK, and I would rather see time effort and money spent in less unstable jurisdictions.

The issue is that the UK is becoming a banana republic, unstable political landscape, very uncertain economy. If labour get elected in 2024 or earlier, they seem to think that it will be a good idea to choke of all north sea oil and gas investment - that is now hanging over this share like it or not. However, given the current cashflow generation and price, I think that the risks are baked in. Be under no illusion, the gas assets are worth far more than the current market cap suggests - matter of time until that is realised, further windfall taxes or not.

My sentiments exactly, Americans have weaponised the dollar, and we are all collateral damage, they also take the gold prices down with all this paper stuff - selling LNG to everyone on Europe at ridiculous prices, then criticise OPEC for raising their prices. Add Russia into the equation and it all looks a bit grim.

Think the Saudis are sick of the American's meddling, the SPR release and flying out there to tell them to pump more was always going to be countered, and now its likely that we get a cut of over 1m

Come on guys, keep it professional, this board is a great source of info about Enquest, lot of wise heads on here, we are better than all this back and forth about persons posting. One of the better share boards out there.

Thanks MRC, agree there is some uncertainty with the debt timing, and the market must be discounting in relation to that. My take on it, as per the h1 results, at end of Aug net debt was $818m, at current clip its coming down about $50-60m a month, but have guided higher capex and some maintenance in h2, also seeing lower oil prices so lets say Sept-Dec we get another $118m (conservative guess) off it, and we rest at $700m net debt at year end. If oil price stayed the same level as now for 2023 which it is pretty much forecast to(maybe the forecasts are totally out), by end of 2023 they would have cleared it. Surely the market can work this out too, the odds are worth taking, for me and the CEO as he has been loading up. Only curveball would be a labour government tax grab, but I don't think conservatives call an early election, so again, that is way off in 2024.

I am still struggling to some extent to understand why north see oil and gas shares are so undervalued. It is quite staggering. I have a watch list of other companies that I consider investing in, and when I compare the cashflow and fundementals the value on offer here just blows them away. How can this company be generating free cashflow in H1 of $332m (and yes that is mostly in USD) and only have an enterprise value of around $1.3b. Half the enterprise value generated in free cashflow per year - is there any other company doing these numbers in the markets? The oil and gas industry is heavily unfashionable but I just can't understand the valuation here, genuinely expect this to double or treble once the money is bagged. The market clearly will not accept the fundamentals and re rate until the money is in the bank, so fine, patience required, but I do find it very odd.

Is this something to do with options expiring at the end of the quarter?

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-affirms-harbour-energy-at-bb-outlook-stable-29-09-2022

Explains why they want are looking for M&A, 7 years reserves left excluding 2C

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/germany-tackles-soaring-energy-costs-with-lid-on-gas-prices?srnd=premium-europe#xj4y7vzkg

So if the gas situation is under control, why are the Germans going to borrow €200m to buy the stuff? You can't take 40% of the energy supply out and not get price increases, recession or not, hence why the current gas price is too low IMO and inflation can't be controlled with interest rates

The bank of England move to start buying gilts was massive for the reason that it is a pivot in some respects, yes they might raise interest rates a bit more to try and back stop the pound but they are actually now pumping liquidity in again, the Americans are going to pivot soon too as well imo, and then inflation will just absolutely rip higher and the dollar will come off its highs

Well if you see at the moment the divergence is starting, oil is trading up close to 1% yet stocks are heading down, I may be ahead of the curve, but people will cotton on eventually and realise that cash is not great when they keep printing it

Forgot to add, if you want another interesting angle look up the impact of La Nina on weather patterns for Europe this winter - expect cold weather and gas shortage, which has been talked down to calm market IMO