Member Info for Thunder2040

I don't really understand what is going on with this share TBH. How can it be gaining and losing 50% of its value repeatedly in the same year. They sold part of the business on multiples far in excess of current valuation basis and the share price went down? As others have said, does the market now anticipate some huge claim or write down that we all don't know about. Why has the CEO bought loads of shares if that were the case? Something odd here but can't work out what.

I mean, I think if someone is going to come along and offer me £2 now I would take it, so no buy backs please, just put us out of our misery.

Can Sparta come and run Wood Group instead please? It is a bit embarrassing that they have had to come out and spell out what the board should have at the capital markets day! Share price should be back up to pre capital markets day level of £1.60 rather soon I think.

Thanks for taking the time to post all this Sekforde. I am onboard with the fundamentals to a point - assume you included the $300m decommission cost each year they guided previously. I think your point about 6 years left is a key one, I would like more info on how the reserves look - as a criticism of this stock in the recent past has been that its going to run out of production. We hear very little on Indonesia or Zama - I know Zama investment decision is being slated for H2 2023, I wonder how much cash we need to to put into that and what actual % we will get from it. Still much to play for here, but the liquidation of stakes by p/e is the biggest issue I have, its grinding on and on.

Hi Sekforde

So what price of Brent and Gas have you assumed in that please? Just for clarity. I had thought there was going to start being some depletion in production but could be wrong. Still chunky FCF, even if it was $500-$1b this would be undervalued.

Too many PE guys liquidating here to even see FV.

Regards

Was researching the gas situation in Europe yesterday. Germany will run out out of storage in late Feb/March with the rest of Europe about the same. Considering they filled about 50% with Russian gas last year, how tight is the gas market going to be here in 2023? The Harbour price will remain subdued for the rest of 2022 IMO, by come 2023, recession or not, the gas price is only going one way and Harbour will move higher.

As per someone's post on here, I thought we were to expect a trading update by the end of November, still no sign of one, which does beg the question, why the delay here? If it's because they are dotting the i's and crossing the t's on a finance deal then perhaps the slight delay is a positive sign here.

Think a move to take this private could be in the pipeline tbh. Dunkerton been buying all the way down, given the price we are at, funds needed to take private and refinance at the same time must be appealing.

How are we to believe the great turnaround story or that contracts will be won, when the guy presiding over it all is jumping ship. As others have said, they borrowed heavily at 10%, the contracts do need to come soon. I prefer Wood group at the moment, as its reduced a load of debt recently with the divestment.

8% down, and oil going positive, could not make it up. Thing is the shorts, are they selling to hedge their Noble group interest, if so they want to sell as high as possible... so it is not really in their interests to carry on shorting if this goes much lower.

LOL! Couldn't make this up! What the hell is going on at the moment! Market is just trading 6% moves on thin air

I thought £3.10 was cheap for my re entry, guess that is the chance we take on a falling knife..I think the saudis are not increasing 500pbd unless the russian cap take supply off the market, in which case, is could be net bullish - some major games being played out there at the moment. The one saving grace here is that the debt is far more manageable and half the production is gas!

So would Harbour be better off with oil at £69.99 below the WT threshold, or has that fallen away now too? If oil prices crash, so we get a grant from the government? Answers on a postcard.

Politicians trying to do finance and economics = disaster! How much investment does this guy think UK is getting now haha Thankfully reduced pre announcement but I mean, its absurd to do this, and then import gas from abroad. Should be picking up the phone to harbour and negotiating a fixed price gas purchase agreement and telling the them to bring on stream new wells to fulfil it! May not re enter this given the way the UK is going, its a mess.

But do they not have about 7 years of reserves, that isn't too long. They throw off a lot of cash, and have high depletion, so moving a significant portion elsewhere is not as unlikely as you seem to have believed before you scoffed at that point. Zama and Indonesia have plenty of potential and I am also sure there will be M&A activity. that 90% could fall to 50% in the blink of an eye with the right deal. We fundamentally disagree on where the leverage lies in this situation, I think you have been reading the Guardian too much.

Not sure I would bother, as they would carry operational risk if they forward sold too much. Still, the share price is now lower than before the war started, and he are now going to be debt free in 2023. The shorts who are hedging their noble shares have distorted the picture here even further, but I think its a fair price to buy in for anyone that can see past the near term noise.

Pray tell, running down all existing wells and reserves and plugging them, whilst investing capital in other development projects outside UK waters - how is that not considered leaving the UK in your eyes? Also, interested by your view that this is a one way street. If UK O&G production declines, will the extra 10% levied actually lead to higher net tax revenue, when also considered in the context of all the other jobs the industry supports?

I think the letter is fine, basically pointed out that we have hedges, and that if they put it up to 75% we will leave, and they will have to import all their gas in the future.

- 80% of contracts on cost +
- Net debt down to .75x
-Legal claim settled
-EBITDA $370m
- Shorts 3% (need to close)
- Strong end markets
- MCAP £1b

This is a buy all day now, £2 in short order once the sells clear this week

Bear market 'rip your face off' rally in progress...markets have not worked out a few things yet, inflation is still actually going up - just less than before. Also, if it stops, that is because demand is being crushed which is hardly good for equities!? I have an eye on the DAX - just ripping higher as though Germany is not reliant on Russia for 40% of its energy - in a few months time people will be kicking themselves for not shorting this rally.

HBR has a forced seller in the form of these two shorts, hedging their exposure, it is not reacting to market fundamentals temporarily.