Member Info for Thunder2040

I have taken a position around 580, expect that will see me in profit when this concludes. Asian investors would not have bought above bid price just to block and sit there with their cash doing northing for years

This drop makes no sense, with so many interested parties why it would trade well below firm offer is beyond me, the Asian investors will not be blocking it just for the sake of it, they just want first dibs on the Asian part of the business.

There is II accumulation going on, the volume and steady trajectory support this. I think they will try and fill this big order on open tomorrow, expect it will open around 150p.

Seen this a few times over last few weeks of trading, the MMs have dropped it to gather shares, will finish about flat, watch the surge back up towards closing auction...

Stefano5 - gave my view that's all. Hope it flies for you holders and gets back up to +£10 level...just not buying what this management team are doing....GL

I remain unconvinced, they should have stated in the RNS the amount was roughly £2m I believe, which doesn't really touch the sides in terms of the net debt. Also, are we to then assume that without the receipt of funds they could have breached covenant? If that it the way they are running the business they are clueless. Will continue to avoid.

It makes no sense Barney. The share price should increase after they receive the cash, so why would two board members sell now pre cash receipt? And why is there now a short open, if the price is going higher? Its hard to conceive how these two things are logical and it spooked me. I hope for remaining holders you get the increase your patience deserves but I divested all my holding today for a modest profit. Good luck.

Well, Thunder has now left the building. I think its unacceptable that the board are selling at this price, tax purposes or not - I don't agree with it. If they don't want to pay tax on all that dividend, I am sure neither do many others, which begs the question why structure the deal like this - and they clearly know more than us - which again is simply unacceptable to me. I emailed investor relations and got no response. So my response - full divestment. Call it rash or whatever - but they just crossed my red line...the RNS will likely drop tomorrow now. GL all.

They have had the position since 2019 around 0.5%, that is a fair point MRC, not sure what the overall short thesis they have is at this level though

dharmendra I completely understand your frustration, shared by many. I think this short and delay may warrant an RNS update on the whole thing - I have just emailed investor relations.

*actually could be a unrealised gain on a derivative which might go to P&L anyway, so I really don't know - maybe they just think its worth less than cash or India won't pay

The Director sales I understand to a point, as they would have to pay tax on the dividend at 32.5% most likely as higher rate taxpayers, unless the shares were sheltered in an ISA or pension. The tax angle was also outlined in the RNS today. I would question like others, why they sold prior to the announcement of receipt of funds, as I anticipate a share price rise on that news before the ex dividend date, surely would have made more sense to sell then but before ex div.

There have been institutional investors increasing stake here recently so the bull case is intact IMO, so I am not too concerned. Marshall Wace only increased by 0.04% from .49% to 0.54% and if you look back has a similar size short back in Aug 2019, so conceivable that they never actually closed it out, just dropped it below the 0.5% reportable threshold and now back above.

If they have a short open when the dividend is paid, they will need to remunerate the holder of the stock they borrowed from, but conversely would enjoy an unrealised capital gain on their position once the stock goes ex div..they also might be short for a tax play, but who knows.

That has surprised me, what the hell are they doing?

You are better pricing it on the sum of parts, take mid year cash, settlement cash and then the assets - it comes out well over £2...its just a drag this, when it finally settles and the money comes, the truth will out.

Haha, course they will pay. If they want access to international capital markets and foreign investment they now have to pay given their word - if the renege it will save them $1b usd in the immediate term to the detriment of 10fold that +over the long haul. This is a settlement, they are getting a great deal - they are paying no interest FFS!

Do you actually understand how a dividend works? haha

Added on the dip at 177.5p, might go lower on another market tank but its still below cash post settlement.

Basil - what difference stock on loan per Euroclear vs disclosed shorts in uk over .5%? Never understood that, we saying all that stock on loan is <0.5% positions?

The only short thesis here is if they think the Indian settlement isnt coming through...sorry but that is bonkers, its too far progressed now and Vod and Vedanta involved - not paying out now would be suicide from the Indians.

Also would question the MM points, MMs hold stock to make a market not to take positions.

Well, India are not covering themselves in glory here. If this settlement process is supposed to be an advert for investing in the country, the pace at which its moving implies you would be better served not bothering....not been mentioned for a while, but what odds, an Indian concession or producing asset deal to be announced as a sweetener?

CaneToad, valid points but the things to be careful of IMO are:

- Forward p/e seems to be out of the window given management have promised Jam tomorrow the past 2 years
- Operational profit is one thing, net losses are another - the bad debt write offs are painful to the bottom line.
- The headroom you mention is different to the headroom they have vs their covenants - if they breach, the lenders could force them to offer more equity in order to renew of waive
- Broker targets are useless

There will become a point when it could be worth a punt again, but I would prefer to see them arrest the margin decline and also either execute a material disposal or raise cash to shore up the balance sheet, then I think it would be derisked for a recovery, until then its too risky here in my view