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Decent post that Seav.

Cashflow on Cairn stake in Egypt averaged $140m over last 3 years I believe. Board are talking about ramping production at least 50% in fairly short order.. I think with fairly minimal capex. I think you can look at it a few ways. If the cashflow and capex comes out as value accretive, given its fixed price, the only risk left is political instability or operational failure. If you think they are so significant, then I agree its not worth the risk. I do not hold that view though. In my view the value is in increasing the production level in Egypt, and less about the price. But they did say on the recent interim results call new agreements would be negotiated for further production bought online, at least that is what I believed. I think the price they are paying to acquire the assets from Shell is at a discount (please correct me if this is wrong) because Shell just didnt want to but the capex in. If there is a further aqui that has productive market rate exposure then the portfolio will start to look fairly well balanced.

That just tells us the gas assets are actually even more critical to Egypt! Thus makes expansion even more likely and new agreements more lucrative. Not sure what the issue is. Just because the share price has dived doesn't mean we should all talk ourselves out of this opportunity. Egypt will make us as shareholders plenty of money trust me. Generally assets acquired from large multinationals are premium type plays - I expect production to significantly ramp up once work commences.

I accept that Egypt does not seem to be favoured, but we can't underestimate how good a deal it is based on the fact Shell were running it below capacity - so if we have been sold it based on the lower capacity and get it running much higher for not too much capex who knows. I mean I think the issue is we have very little visibility of what kind of profit can be turned on it, I am not aware we have seen the pricing agreements?

LOL! No one on here is having any impact on the price trust me.

Got auto buys set sub £1.55, hope it goes there do I can get more shares.

Rest of the business excluding India settlement is valued approx. at £120m currently

If India goes through at $1.06b that is £1.54 a share....

If it goes below that again then I call foul

Taking out all the spread betters here I think with this price dive, defo someone playing some games.

I don't believe its just the MMs that take the price down...someone is selling. They have been since the news broke to be honest, I would love to know who it is and why.

I think doubts remain as to whether the Indians will pay up...they have had plenty of time. I would be tempted to seize the aircraft now if the US decision is favourable.

I would commence some of the buybacks now TBH. They can afford £50m -£100m from current cash reserves and the price will only spike on settlement announcement.

Natural that some doubters appear or other sell and move on. But if the India settlement is completed on the terms outlined then there is a healthy profit here, regardless of what brokers or anyone will have you believe.

Exactly you can't short this unless you are tapped, if the settlement comes in its very substantially backed by cash. Some II chosen to be a martyr here the last week or so and sold volume, must be the ESG crew on their back..

Also, you will note Cairn are asking for money before they drop litigation, how do you know Cairn will not pursue the full amount anyway?

How much business have you done in LEDC L3Trader?

Some people on here seem to be in cloud cuckoo land regarding how you recover or settle contested debts or litigation..$1,7b of asset seizures would likely take a very long time. There is no guarantee that amount could be realised. The proposed settlement amount is good enough and getting the money in the bank now is probably more beneficial than piecemeal token amounts for 5-10 years

The private equity play would be a stealth stake build and then reject the deal somehow via a vote, let the share price crash down a bit, take private then deal or sell to a dispute fund - but they must have left that too late. So yeah, I actually think closer to 50% upside on NAV but 25%-50% seems about right. Maybe people just aren't willing to tie the cash up...not sure what other opportunities they have their eye on though because on a risked basis this seems no brainer. I agree losing a large % of the award stings, but all that aside the share price is not reflective of the current proposal

Logical explanations for share price some 50% below my estimate of NAV:

1) Risk discount for money not being repatriated from India
2) Expectation that non disbursed money from the dividend or buyback will somehow be wasted on no value accretive investments despite a solid track record.
3) A forced seller, be it for ESG or other reasons
4) Traders selling out who were looking for a quick buck
5) Hedge fund shorting

I don't think any are correct but the price is what it is, so something is holding this back.

Gas market is looking mega at the moment. I feel the worm may be beginning to turn with respect to sentiment on the Egypt acquisition. Granted there is a fixed price agreement but I want more detail on how inflation of gas prices will be priced for Cairn, as its only going one way at the moment. Also exploration to bring more gas online is a good place to be at the moment.