Member Info for Thunder2040

If the aqui is £80m cheaper, and the market cap was circa £300m at start of the day, surely this, plus the strong trading should lead to an increase in SP of at least 20%? Or am I missing the trick here.

There are a lot of posters on this board in particular that change their view based on what suits them, willing it lower to buy in on the cheap, its one of the worst board I have seen. Hardly anyone offering price targets backs them up with any calculations or rationale.

This share is now lower price than it start 2020 at...not sure that can be right.

My interest recently has been on the four UK listed transport stocks: Stagecoach, GOG, First and NEX. I feel like we are starting to see Nex pull ahead as the quality play, another broker buy recommendation today. Granted I think all are good investments but the track record of management and growth here seems to be giving it an edge. I feel like if you are positioning for a recovery this is the prime transport stock to be in.

The vaccine news kind of leaked..it works. Expect 50% here in short order

If Biden clamps down on fracking, a huge amount of American supply could come off the market at some stage.

Jakers, alternative view:

1) Stimulus deal (more asset inflation will increase oil prices)
2) Vaccine and lower Covid (increased everything!)
3) Brexit - largely irrelevant for BP

I will say this as a new poster on here. This will not go to 150p this year. There is a mad scramble to get out of risk positions with the US election looming and big stigma attached to carbon, but as a few have alluded to, either way it goes, the US election is bullish for oil - Biden will restrict shale, Trump will boost markets.

Also, a lot of PIs or funds for that matter are selling out of this because of the green strategy - it has execution risk which people don't want. With greater risk comes greater reward though. We are at the nadir of Covid now in my opinion as we see a second wave with no approved vaccine. This will change in the next month with approvals granted and the start of a steady plan to immunise that brings down death rates initially but then subsequently boosts confidence in air travel etc. I can categorically say people will still fly and jet fuel demand is the biggest drag on oil markets at the moment. Oil demand will increase and oil investment has faltered meaning I expect higher prices in later 2021 than are forecast.

All things combined, this is a golden opportunity to buy and double your money in about 12 months. I have been in oil stocks long enough to know they always come back and the argument for them declining and never returning comes out at the bottom of the market every time without fail. If the argument of oil being finished didnt surface then there would be no opportunity to buy this cheap. So we should probably be thankful for the opportunity, buy the shares and hold them - let the dividend roll in and then take your capital gains in a year's time.

Period † Open High Low VWAP Avg. Daily Vol Change %
1 Week 327.30 338.90 215.00 266.37 22,523,447 -71.90 -21.97%
1 Month 325.00 402.30 215.00 326.87 15,518,273 -69.60 -21.42%
3 Months 264.00 402.30 215.00 312.49 11,018,827 -8.60 -3.26%
6 Months 271.60 433.30 197.60 301.63 12,780,354 -16.20 -5.96%
1 Year 274.40 433.30 133.15 290.23 9,493,038 -19.00 -6.92%
3 Years 193.25 433.30 133.15 233.50 8,238,032 62.15 32.16%
5 Years 34.00 433.30 32.25 200.49 7,902,379 221.40 651.18%

Trading at approx 3 year VWAP. Forward PE on Earnings of 7.5p for FY21 comes in at around 33x, versus post float average of circa 42x.

I would say once the noise has gone, you will look back on a buy around this price and be pleasantly surprised.

That production forecast is very disappointing, expect under £1 and then slight recovery to about £1.20.

Quite embarrassing maths on show here tonight, its circa £700,000 as others have said, crikey.

Fair play, Kamani's et.al back themselves big, again, I admire that.

Waiting for that massive dump as per yesterday now. Sold into the rise and not sure I can trust this to go back in.

There is a big seller on books..until cleared no clarity

For another 124m he could buy the entire company...something not right here. Surely the underwriters have a lockup period?

No smoke without fire as they say, I am not sure what has happened with this share the last 6 months, I am shocked really.

Would you mind sharing why you think they need to do a fundraise? Look like they have plenty of cash to me?

On a message board always question the motives of those that post constant negative comments and are not invested, I mean why are they wasting their time to come here to do that.

Toneman I think your view as along term holder is another reason for the subdued price.. and I totally understand it. The board of this company lost trust by not disclosing that bid and then arranging a side deal and expecting everyone to give them more money - despite a huge destruction of shareholder value since float...it was a lot to stomach tbh I imagine. I think their reset / re launch/ new strategy stuff has been said before so I was not overly excited about that. In essence do I like the board or CEO -not at all, I just think at current price the value has probably overshot to the downside.

Some others have picked holes in the balance sheet on here as well saying it has too much debt. The reason I am comfortable enough to invest despite the gearing is x3 fold: the cash gen of insurance is solid and can keep them going, highly levered companies will have superior equity returns if they survive events such as this and thirdly the debt is secured on assets, that are not really impaired, because if they were flogged them to another company that targeted younger people with cruises, would see little or no demand issue and no young people seem to die from Covid. As it is, the 50+ segment has the most money going into and coming out of this crises so the rebound opportunity if De Haan gets this right is significant.

As I said, there is a view out there from some that cruising well never come back, which I do not share. That is the single largest reason this is being punished. It is almost binary on that point.