Member Info for Thunder2040

Both, fund gets them but better return so better fee for manager

GUEVOURA FUND LTD declared 11 % short, total declared shorts over 22%. GUEVOURA FUND LTD is short on Hammerson and IAG - both with rights issues - pretty obvious what they did

Declared shorts now at 17.16% - based on today's move expect over 20% now short..so much noise now its hard to see the true value, but I believe it is being heavily distorted

Yeah exactly, so the majority of the short position declared was open pre rights, hence more than the 0.8% of rights is needed to close it out, a lot more. Watch and learn

You missed the point that you have to return 24x more shares to the holder.

It will not go into admin IMO, as they can cover cashflow with this liquidity with fair easy. Moody's have this still as investment grade - and we have had the worst shock already.

50% asset write down still yields value...its a risk play - I don't expect all to agree

IMO the issue was heavily discounted to encourage take up, not because it represents anything like fair value for the company. Shorts have made this into a bloodbath for the short term. You don't go short on Hammerson at 15p with a vaccine announcement imminent, they will close via the rights.

Surely if there was a share consolidation they need more of the rights than that. I will say it again, the discount to NAV here is too high, it will correct. That is my opinion and I have backed it up with £. Hope I am right.

The rights will have been heavily taken up by the shorts - its that simple.

Blackrock buying. Directors buying. Cornerstone investors buying. The only reason this is dropping is because the hedge funds can short it down to 15p and exit with the rights issue. It will come back up to about 30p near term.

Well this has presented a nice opportunity to go long - the discount to NAV is simply to much at this level, fill your boots and switch off for a few months.

Final points for you - you sell a businesses on aggregated historic and/or future projected discounted cashflow including project growth (which the business is doing) not point in time ones, see the growth forecast in the goodwill impairment assessment of the accounts.

Second 90% train capacity x train revenue of £3.1b x 1.5% is £41b operating profit. Also the performance element was additional to the 1.5% I thought?

Also, the board have said that they are getting approx 70% of income from US Student buses, this dipped lower in the 6 months they are reporting before agreements were made.

The figures I am quoting are in the accounts.

I can only conclude you must be short or holding from a very high level and just depressed at the current price.

*£68m

PYEUCK - the presentation on the website tells you the operating margin of rail was 2.2%giving operating profit of 68%. That was blended across all franchises. So current arrangement is actually more profitable I would suspect, as SWR was struggling and now yields +1.5%. Hence why the board pushed for the cost plus agreement and now have it.

May as well say it how it is, this share is currently a special situation play on the US division disposal. The fact UK revenue is gov. backed just de risks holding it until the disposal.

The US Student service is highly defensive and has an operating margin of 8.8%. They are taking market share at the moment and have proven that side of the business to be robust in times of risk - same with First Transit. On EBITDA multiple of 5 -10 which is cheap if you equate operating profit excl covid to EBITDA First Student is worth £222m x5 or x10 which if you do the maths is a £2billion pound business. After debt repayments that is a material uplift to current share price and that is just one US division, Greyhound property value is significantly above book value as well so expect more uplift from that...First transit also running profits. This is a heavily misunderstood business.

The agreement is a cost plus agreement, you can't make a loss on those! Also 70% of US bus revenue is being collected, the most profitable part of the business. Train as a whole didn't contribute that much in earning and bus revenue is also underwritten. Trust me, this is an over reaction.

All the revenue across the business seems to be locked in (and a lot is coming from America) and based on last trading update FG is trading with a small profit - so with today's announcement I am not really sure why the market has taken off near 10% of the market value - makes zero sense to me.

https://www.ft.com/content/0bb8f3d9-7ae3-4b5d-8684-2d6ce2375f28

Interesting development today - some upside for sure but I prefer Occidental these days...far lower break even.

Looks like market correction is still ongoing across the board, not just boohoo, best to sit it out before re entry from experience.