Member Info for Thunder2040

Johnson to announce 95% mortgages - think that has put a rocket under this

I would not be rushing to buy...shafted.

Tiger, on Friday pre market you said:

'I'm sorry for this morning's profit warning. (Not currently invested here, of in pretty much anything at all).
It is far better communicated than the warnings of the Pardey era, so hopefully the market will be not too unkind today.
Gold itself has spiked on the news of Trump testing positive. But it should also be noted that it looks like the talks over the US stimulus package have collapsed, and there won't be any action taken before the election. I'm sure that the stock markets won't like this, and I'm not sure that the gold market won't like it either in due course.'

So you are not invested here currently. Do you always hang around on message boards for shares you are not invested in, or just this one?

You are also after cheaper re entry. You scum.

Sorry Tiger, but I will not have other PI's scaremongered by other posters and do nothing, even if the offender is a regular poster. It is not right. Sorry you feel that way.

So below is a summary of posts from someone that has bricked it on Friday, sold and now wants back in cheaper, watch the posts change:

At 7.56am on Friday (pre market) crapping himself:

'Q3 production to sept 30th also given 120k,which wouldn’t have been enough to make predicted 510-520k ounces and below quarter 1 and 2. I make it annual production now around 440k rather than 515k. Let’s hope the problem is quickly resolved. On re reading doesn’t look problematic longer term, but yet again the company.....tho that is mining. Will it open 20p down or more? I hope I am too gloomy but this is pretty very bad.
On another note interesting to see Trump diagnosed on same page as research shows he has been the leading source of false news about Covid. Sadly his success has been making people question not his and his acolytes pushing of false news, but the established news outlets with proper journalistic standards, serious newspaper and broadcasters even here, which makes it harder to price gold imho.'

At 8.04am on Friday:

'Can’t sell at all, started at 40000 but can’t even sell 100'

8.06am

'Gosh just got price 186, amazed not worse'

So here we can see he had now traded out of his shares. So now he starts to de ramp to gain lower re entry:

8.20 am, Friday (post sale):

'Fair price, 20% fall as expected, just surprised opened so high, presumably it will overshoot but hopefully settle back in a few days around this price, as said this years profit and next divi dramatically down but shouldn’t impact long term tho does make one question management as usual even if mining is fickle

8.33am Friday:

'Don’t expect it to hold'

11.37am Friday:

'Prof I usually always agree with you but not that the 20% fall is overdone, seems about right or very kind to me; you cannot assume costs will remain constant, they are per ounce so fewer ounces means higher costs. 50% lost production this quarter will mean v low profit for it if any, and over the year 15% lost production plus say 10% rise in costs would mean instead or 515000 x $1000 at todays price less 52.5% , £190,000 , we would have 440k at $700 less 52.5%, £110,000, which is a reduction of 40% on this year's profit. Even with the fallen share price PE is up from 13 to 18 today. And this year we only have the problem only for the second half and presumably only the latter end of this quarter. If it were to continue all next year we could be looking at £1 at current gold prices. Hopefully however the market will look forward to a speedy recovery so it should only fall 10 or 20p from here or if we are lucky even less, but oversold....?'

And so on..the deramps continued all weekend, on a share he claims he still owns.

Quite simply, filter the guy - nasty piece of work.

He has been rumbled, read his post history - its all there.

You said you had been selling down Centamin to buy Hoc, but would start to look at trading back in - I am sorry but you are not really being honest. Filtered.

3 quotes from the RNS:

‘the Company has commenced a detailed geotechnical assessment, which is focused on developing a plan to mine the impacted area.’

‘Mining of the impacted high-grade material will be rescheduled’

‘we have decided to defer production from this higher-grade area in order to protect our workforce and preserve the value of Sukari.’

All inferring the gold will be mined at a future date, when given the rising gold price, would yield more value for shareholders. Granted the cost of mining lower grade material this quarter and remedial works must be factored in but I will say it again - does that warrant 22% of the market cap being wiped off?

Lot of vultures trying to get lower rentry here, its pretty tragic.

Hmm, they stopped mining that area as a precaution, so something went right in that they detected it. The remedial work has already been done. It seems to make sense to roll the assessment of the subsequent extraction now into the overall mine plan. I think if you see gold at USD2000+ in 2021 now is the best time to buy into this. In the next 3 weeks it may be driven lower by speculation but I expect it to cover the full dip in 3-6 months.

In a mining operation I think some forms of production interruptions have to be built into the price. A 50% reduction in one quarter with no loss of life does not warrant nearly 1/4 of the market cap being taken off, with a gold market that is in the midst of a huge bull run. Buying on this news is a risk, but you have to take the risk to get the premium discount entry. As long as 2021 production is forecast at circa 500,000 its no big deal. They can cover dividend about 4 times with cash.

Not quite true is it, you clearly don't love all unloved shares, only the ones you have long positions in. You spend the whole day deramping on the Centamin board to facilitate your own agenda.

Did anyone else notice the RNS was slightly incomplete:

'Open pit mining at Stage 4 North and Stage 5 North will continue, albeit at grades of'

Did not say what grades. Also, the uncertainty here is if the gold can be mined, if it can, then really no harm done considering the trajectory of POG. I think this could go a bit lower in the next few session but I have made a conviction buy anyway on today's 20% drop.

Its just being walked down by the algo's today. Spiking as shorts buy and then walk adown again. Will be very hard to read for a few weeks as the hedge funds just play games when they leave

Whole secture is flying today...what caused this? SP here still massively lagging peers so a lot of upside down..expect shorts to be down vastly

Can we just be clear - 60% impairment is just daft. All this conjecture will be answered when we get some positive news about the virus which despite some people's belief will not continue to cause the current state of panic and angst. Taking a short term hit on rent is understandable, will prime commercial real estate recover - IMO yes.

Yuri - suggest you read this if you have not already

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/hammerson-rights-issue-via-disposal-relieve-pressure-on-ratings-06-08-2020

Unencumbered asset ratio covenants have already been relaxed by lenders-at the the end of December, this ratio stood at 189% and now post rights and disposal it will be above 200%- the covenant has been relaxed to 125% for reporting periods until the end of June 2021, and to 140% for a new test date of the end of October 2021

Why would anyone repossess at the moment with all on Intu on the market haha - some people just don't get it. There is just dire sentiment and a smouldering wreck here after the shorts had a field day - it won't be an instant recovery - but there will be one.

It was time to buy as soon as it dropped below TERP of 25p. Granted we have a slightly worse covid outlook now so perhaps 10% off from there is market value..expect it should rest at about 22p but then again, who saw the price going sub 15p.

Anyone that sold sub 15p has literally just thrown away money - I think the rump could have been taken by a hedge fund that sold it down to 15p. There is a chance that overhang sit about for a few weeks - but there are near term catalysts to the price despite the incredibly negative view at the moment. Vaccine, rapid tests and US stimulus plus a Brexit deal would all be positive drivers. This now has liquidity to sit it out so personally I think its a good place to invest at current level. The fact the shorts are closing tells you they don't expect it to go much lower - keep an eye on their position.

Well I must say I was surprised that the price dropped to the RI price of 15p - would have held off if I had known but timing the market is a mugs game. The fundamentals here are that the company is trading below 20% of NAV factoring in a further 10% reduction in portfolio value. That risk is skewed to the long investor.