Member Info for Thumper1127

Give him a thimble of vodka!

@sjsrace. You’ve rumbled me, I’ll have to have you “eliminated” now!

I simply do it via the app. I do a mock booking and once you’ve selected the flight it brings up the seating plan of available seats. I wish I could automate it.

@Prime. Here’s hoping your new Gillometer (AKA Fishometer, Jetometer) gives a reading above 500 by COP.

A quick look at today’s Southampton departures:

Belfast 166 out of 186 (89.2%) single fare £74

Glasgow 175 out of 186 (94%) fare £119

Paris 183 out of 186 (98.4%) fare £194

Total 524/558 (93.9%)

GLA

@Prime. You could even call it a Gillometer!

@Prime. Sorry, thought you did a bit of TA. Tequila Analysis perhaps?

@Prime. I got in at 484.8. I keep getting results around 485.

So you do TA and now GA - Goldfish Analysis! You should mark his bowl in 1cm increments and take hourly readings of how high/low he is and plot it on a graph!

GLA

O’Leary at his best. Free publicity. Conditional on the UK abolishing APD. He’s got three hopes of that; Bob Hope , no hope and envelope. If the market reacted for that reason I’d be amazed.

@Stupmy. As you know, I have an interest in TA although haven’t studied it in any depth and don’t actively use it. I’ve skim read some key points and understand that, essentially, it’s about herd mentality. I will study more when life permits. However, once again I’ve picked up in the 485 area (7th or 8th time this year). It seems to be a sweet spot for me. Of course, it could all go south tomorrow but as a LTH trying to gradually build a bigger position it seems a pretty “safe” range for me to top up as even if it drops below (440s as it has on one occasion) it seems to bounce back so my LTH is not, per se, compromised. Does you TA broadly align with my observation on the 485 region (accepting that anything you may say will not be a recommendation!)?

Separately, I mentioned the Western Isle and you said you spent time on the West Coast but hadn’t heard of Benbecula. If you, or anyone else for that matter, are interested the Ben Fogle series “Scotland’s Sacred Islands ” is being re-run on Sundays on BBC1 at 10 am. Although it is centred on the origins/development of Christianity it is not overtly religious; it’s about the history, the people and the sheer beauty of the Isles of Scotland. It’s a nice relaxing hour and a motivator to go back there. So many people venture abroad (no problem with that) without seeing the wonderful places at home.

GLA, whatever your strategy.

@Stupmy. Not sure you did say 320, I think that was someone else.

Limit order triggered at 484.8.

GLA

Small limit order placed.

GLA

This is what a good message board is about. Polite coherent viewpoints for all interested parties to consider.

GLA

An interesting narrative but I think it is referring to 3rd parties rather than management. I still don’t see why management would want to suppress the SP, seems totally counter intuitive to me. In fact wouldn’t it be a breach of rules (even illegal?) to purposely do so? Positively stating risks and actual events is fine but to talk it down on purpose?

@Prime. What does your Co-Goldfish say?!!!

@1ontheup. I don’t see why management would want to suppress the SP. If, and it is a big if, they had any desires for a takeover they’d want to maximise the SP. Remember, many of them have shares/share options. Equally, to repel a takeover the higher the SP the better. Whether there are third parties trying to undermine the SP in order to make a takeover easier is a separate matter; I’m not saying there are of course.

I certainly feel that the SP does not reflect the true value but I take comfort in the fact that the fundamentals are solid, they are effectively debt free, they are expanding (taking on another 1000 cabin crew so I believe), they have a pipeline of new and more efficient aircraft and the holiday business is growing. But somehow the SP does not reflect this (others may say the market is the market and reflects the true value).

Given the cash pile and, presumably increase in PBT/PAT for the current financial year, I’d be surprised and disappointed if the Board does not make some significant announcement(s) in November to reassure LTH and provide a lift to the SP. I’m staying in and topping up if the SP drops to a certain level. I totally understand others’ frustration but I believe it will come good in the end.

GLA

@Prime. Depends on what model of goldfish it is and how old. Is it 319, 320 or a 321? And how bad is his habit, not as bad as the dog I hope!

Looking forward to November and hoping that there are real positives for LTH to lift the SP above 600, it’s got to happen at some stage. GLA

@Xhita. I tend to agree although I think a combination of buy back and dividend would be good. I know you are not keen on dividends (carpet bagging etc.). Re buy back, IIRC they did have a resolution passed authorising them to do so. I can’t believe they would have tabled it without intending to use it at some stage. November could be interesting (IIRC, you pretty much nailed the year PBT last time, it would be interesting to get your thoughts nearer the time).

GLA

My understanding is that EZJ estimate the French ATC strike will cost them £15m. Assuming flat PBT (which most certainly would be a concern!) that’s a 2.5% hit. So in the scheme of things an irritant but no more than that. It’s already been announced so should already be priced in but the market can be fickle.

I’m hopeful for the medium to long term; the business is fundamentally sound, pricing does not look to be suppressed and the holiday business is growing with minimal, if any, capital risk. More routes are being added and, hopefully, winter losses can be reduced. For my investment strategy and time profile it suits me and I’m optimistic of 800 within 2 to 3 years but have to admit that this is my hunch with no science behind it. If in November EZJ announce a good increase in PBT (20% plus) together with an increase in dividend to 25% PAT plus I see no reason why 600 can’t finally be breached and maintained. 580 or thereabouts seems to be the ceiling in the last few years, it must be breached at some stage. There are those on this BB who pop up from time to time and spread gloom; they are entitled to their opinion, but I’m staying in. And should the SP drop to 480 - 485, I’ll be adding more (that range has been a sweet spot for me this year).

GLA

Belfast should have read 98.7%.

Yes, my favourite airport I keep banging on about , but it’s looking good for EZJ. The Glasgow flights have pretty much been sold out this last week. Today (Sunday) currently stands at:

Amsterdam 149 out of 156 = 95.5%

Paris 186 out of 186 = 100%

Glasgow 170 out of 186 = 91.4%

Belfast 154 out of 156

Total 659 out of 684 = 96.3%

Something is clearly going well at Southampton. Hopefully more routes from Southampton in 2026/27. Barcelona is being added from October, I can’t see EZJ NOT adding more routes going forward.

GLA, hope you are all having good weekends!

@Trojan. Yes, I did mess up!!!