Member Info for Thumper1127

@Prime. That should do it!

Average load factor Southampton to Glasgow Sunday to today is 95.8% but I do detect a softening for the rest of the week to Saturday (but it can change rapidly). A seven day figure of 85% or above would be good.

@Stille. Likewise, I’m going to sit tight, I’ve done more small top ups for my LTH than intended this year so far but comfortable with my holding.

@Prime. Is he bathing in vodka?!

@Stiile. Once I saw your post I thought it inevitable; didn’t expect it so soon though. Final price was 460.476.

@Prime. Have a word with your goldfish - a thimble of vodka perhaps?!

Limit order at 462 triggered.

Was your Nice flight from LGW?

I hope not but have a limit or still in place at 462 just in case.

GLA

@Stille. That’s good news. Southampton to Glasgow tomorrow currently loading 182 out of 186! Forward fares looking very respectable.

GLA

@Garonne. That’s been my point in many previous posts - about how Southampton is such a good alternative to Gatwick for many people. The population within 60-90 minutes travel time to Southampton is substantial, it has excellent transport connections (M27/M3, adjacent main line train station, approximately 110 steps on the flat station to airport entrance) and is a very relaxed airport to travel from. EZY only used to do a few seasonal routes from Southampton and only started the Glasgow route 3 years ago. It has put on more and more 320s instead of 319s and prices and loadings have been increasing and healthy. I’ve just been interested in how it has now become established. EZJ added Belfast, Amsterdam and Paris. They also serve Faro (BA used to but pulled out of SOU this year) and Alicante and are adding Barcelona next month. I’m convinced they will add more routes in 26/27.

It is no surprise to me that Southampton has proven to be popular I was just pleasantly surprised that loadings this last week were better than the previous week, I thought they’d show signs of easing now the main summer holiday period is drawing to a close.

And now for the Nerd o’clock News…

I’ve continued tracking load factors on the Southampton to Glasgow route. From last Sunday to today:

Date, Seats, Sold, Load factor, Excess over a 319, 319 equivalent load factor.

07/9, 186, 182, 97.8%, 26, 100%

08/9, 186, 180, 96.8%, 24, 100%

09/9, 156, 146, 93.6%, N/A, N/A

10/9, 186, 165, 88.7%, 11, 100%

11/9, 156, 143, 91.7%, N/A, N/A

12/9, 186, 170, 91.4%, 14, 100%

13/9, 186, 179, 96.2%, 23, 100%

Total seats = 1242, Sold = 1165, Load Factor = 93.8%.

All 5 days with an A320 loaded in excess of A319 capacity, enabling an extra 98 seats to be sold. Had all flights been A319s, capacity would have been 1092 seats with 1069 sold, a load factor of 97.9%. I’ve assumed that the additional 98 passengers on the A320 days wouldn’t have travelled on a different day.

To be honest, I’m surprised at how good the load factors are; I had expected the numbers to start falling back but instead there were over 100 more seats sold than the week before. The matching of aircraft types to daily demand is very impressive.

As previously mentioned, my figures will be marginally understated as I typical take the daily “sold” figures 3 hours before flight time or around 20:00 previous day for flights before 10:00. Yesterday I took the figure for today’s flight at about 19:00 (I was just going into a show in Brighton). I checked it again when I got back (about 00:30) and 4 more seats had been sold.

It is only one route in a single direction I know but I find it reassuring. Targeted regional expansion is clearly part of the mix. More of this sort of growth please EZY, not just Southampton!!!

I hope others find this at least interesting. The SP will do what it will do of course (no ramping from me) but the fleet replacement/expansion with greater efficiency and reduced cost per seat flown is one of the reasons I have confidence enough to invest for the medium to long term.

And that concludes the Nerd O’clock News.

@Sollers. I tend to do too ups of 100 or 200 at a time. So it seems (where I do 100) we are topping at broadly the same. Picked up at 464.77 the other day, waiting to see if my limit for another 100 triggers at 462.

Separately, I will post this week’s Southampton to Glasgow loadings. Looking very good, more sold than last week, overall loadings in the 90s.

@Garone. If you can, sit tight, it’ll go back above 500 in due course. At least get your money back before bailing, this will come good IMO, just don’t know the timescale or the bumps in the road on the way. I’ve got another small limit order in for my LTH. Nearly triggered a bit earlier, not in a rush to top up but happy to mop up a bit at the right price. Sat on an average of 389 at the moment.

GLA

Ryanair are also saying they may not resume flights to Israel.

GLA

Jarvis was granted option for 48,519 in December 2024 as a conditional deferred portion of annual bonus. Vesting subject to service of a set deferral period. He was then granted an option on 83,724 as part of a long term plan, subject to conditions.

@Prime. Yes, it is frustrating but equally, IMO, a good opportunity for LTH. I may do another small top up but an holding off field the moment. Certainly, loadings I’ve been monitoring look good, albeit it is a dip sample. Southampton to Glasgow loadings from Sunday to today ahead of last week, load factor nicely in the 90% plus range. Southampton to Belfast is sold out today. I’ll post full week details in my Nerd O’clock News (tips hat to @Stille!) on Saturday.

I think the SP needs to get above 485 ish and keep above before pushing on up over 500.

GLA

From Reuters:

“London's Heathrow Airport said on Thursday that it has handled more than 8 million passengers in August, marking a new milestone amid record-breaking summer travel volumes.

Heathrow, Europe's busiest hub, said it hit its busiest day ever on August 1 with more than 270,000 passengers and Terminal 5 set a new single-day record on August 22 with over 112,000 travellers.”

My small limit order just triggered at 464.77.

GLA

@Stille. I hope the load factor was respectable. Southampton to Glasgow from Sunday to today loading really well. Total seats 528, sold 508 = 96.2%.

Totally agree on the App

GLA

@Prime. A gold star? Never had one of those. I’d like your advice though. Love that track “Liquid Lunch”. Thought I’d try it out in action. What I want to know is , if I went on one last Monday, should it have finished by Thursday evening?!!

GLA

EZJ have already said they expect to take a £15m hit. Annoying but in the scheme of things small. Already priced in (well it should be!).

GLA

@Xhita. I always appreciate your posts as you have skin in the game.

You’ve mentioned many times about the fleet replacement (320s replacing 319s) adding significant capacity at effectively no cost. This is now bearing fruit on the Southampton/Glasgow route. I posted the other day re loadings, including a paper exercise of determining load factors had all flights last week been 319s. Loadings for yesterday and today come in at 182 and 180 respectively, giving an average load factor of 97.3%. That’s 50 additional passengers over and above the 319 capacity; and the fares have been very healthy.

I’ve got a small limit order in just in case the ball comes loose in the scrum.

GLA