Member Info for Thumper1127

Weekly update on Southampton to Glasgow loadings Sunday 12th to Saturday 17th October

2 days A320

5 days A319

Total seats = 1152

Sold = 1096

Load factor = 95.1%

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 39

A319 equivalent load factor 1032/1092 - 96.8%

This has really surprised me. It is the highest absolute load factor since I started tracking 7 weeks ago, although not the highest number of seats sold or A319 equivalent load factor. I really thought this would dip below 1000 sales per week and load factors to drop below 90%. This coming week is the last of 7 day operation before it drops to 6 days a week.

I have also again tracked the reverse direction and will post in due course but I’m doing a bit more analysis/research first as I may have picked up an interesting (to me at least!) pattern; but I probably need more data first to be reasonably sure.

All the usual caveats/context etc. and as always all of this is SP agnostic.

Have good weekends all.

@Savage. Er, yes of course I did. And re costs, it’s irrelevant in this specific case. In case you are not aware, profit is AFTER costs!!!! Basics Savage, basics!!!

So PPSF up just shy of 20%.

@Savage. You seem obsessed with using 2019 as a baseline. So I’ll do the same. I’m using ChatGpt here and asking what the profit per seat flown was in 2019 and adjusting it for inflation to 2024 for comparison. Results:

2019 PPSF was £5.07

2024 PPSF was £6.04.

@Chubbybrown. I am most certainly no expert but in the years before covid I understand EZJ variously paid out between 45 and 70% PAT as dividend. That would be a good reason for many people to hold (whether paying out that much is sensible is another matter, I seem to recall some criticism in some quarters over high dividend payouts). There has of course been the share dilution since then so a like for like comparison is pretty meaningless to all intents and purposes).

IMO, if November brings good results and notice of increasing dividends (to 25-30%) AND notice of some share buy back then I think the SP will start to see a healthy rise. But any increased dividend/buy back should not undermine the forward investment in fleet replacement.

Happy for others with better knowledge of these things to share alternative views.

@Bolland. If it goes sub 450 I’ll be topping up my LTH. I’m convinced the SP will come good in due course. Had funds as the ready for a possible drop on Monday, never thought it would do the opposite! Setting aside the surge due to bid speculation it’s still up on the opening price on Monday.

It’s only a flesh wound!!!

The IMF now expects UK inflation to average 3.4% in 2025, a revision upward from its previous forecast of 3.2%. Inflation is then projected to slow to 2.5% in 2026, still higher than the 2.3% figure anticipated earlier this year.

So all above target. Hardly disinflation leading to deflation.

“ EZJ primed to struggle to retain customers, given their high ticket prices”

@Savage. Can you evidence this please? O’Leary said a few days ago that he expected to regain the 7% price suppression they saw. I see some bargain EZJ fares and also some really healthy (from an SP perspective) ones. Load factors will fall during the late autumn/winter but this goes with the territory.

Richeyroo. Thanks so much for posting that, really appreciated.

I did see that there was such an article but don’t know how to get past the paywall (only upgraded from black and white television to colour earlier this year, I’m a bit behind the times!). What’s the essence?

EZJ both flights LGW to Malaga today sold out.

@Prime. If you do, same diet as the goldfish?!!

Weekly update on Southampton to Glasgow loadings Sunday 5th to Saturday 11th October

2 days A320

5 days A319

Total seats = 1152

Sold = 1056

Load factor = 91.7%

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 24

A319 equivalent load factor 1032/1092 - 94.5%

This week I’ve also tracked it in the Glasgow/Southampton direction to see how balanced it is and the fact that it’s fine if one direction has good load factors but not if the load factor on the other leg is low. The results are very reassuring;

Solid 1100

Load 95.5%

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 53

A319 equivalent load factor 1047/1092 - 95.9%

So for both directions combined the absolute load factor was 93.6%, A319 equivalent was 95.2%

As always, my figures may be a slight understatement as I take the figures typically an hour or so before booking closes or the previous evening for earlier morning departures. The usual caveats of course.

Whatever tomorrow/this week brings, I find the above very reassuring; EZJ clearly have this route working very well.

I’m mindful that some may my postings on loadings a bit nerdy (@Stille - thanks for that, lol!). Happy to cease posting if enough on here want me to stop cluttering up the board!

GLA for the coming week. Roller coaster or calm boating lake?

PS @Prime. Sorry to hear about the goldfish. How about a house rabbit next time?

Funds at the ready if they do.

@La Marie. Yes, I understand the principles of yield management it’s just this jumped out as an extreme example of revenue maximisation and forward visibility. Given that the route has frequently sold out I’m sure they could have sold this one out but at lower fares/overall revenue. I find the whole subject of loadings/pricing very interesting. I only started doing it to see how a route I’ve used many times (I’m close to Southampton) was now performing and whether it was sustainable; I was confident it would be a success but it has surpassed my expectations. I’m extending my tracking, at least temporarily, to look at out and back legs and, on a dip sample, whole day cycle. This is for personal interest, I’ve always made it clear that it is totally separate to any view on the business/SP in general and is not some attempt to talk EZJ up.

On the SP, caught up close of play as virtually everything was by the US/China trade issues. I’ve got limited funds available (my remaining ISA allowance) to top up if it falls very far. Happy to sit on this one long term I don’t think the market reflects the true value; but value is only what someone is prepared to pay of course.

Have a good weekend.

An interim update but with an interesting addition. With tomorrow still to go loadings on Southampton to Glasgow since last Sunday are holding up well. Over 1000 seats sold and a load factor in the low 90s. I expected it to dip below 90.

I’ve been dipping into the other direction, Glasgow/Southampton and will give a fuller update over the weekend. But last Sunday I posted that today’s flight still had over 40 seats (pretty sure it was 43) available and that the cheapest fare was £462. This subsequently eased a bit and has been £444 ever since. At close of booking there were only 13 seats left (it had only been 10 at one stage, can only assume 3 people changed flights). So at least 27 seats have been sold at a minimum of £444. That’s £11,998!! Clearly EZJ know something to be confident to price at this level so relatively far out. I half expected the price to fall as the week progressed but it didn’t. They are either “in the know” or are testing price elasticity. That’s one hell of a bit of yield management!

A single flight, no claims to anything than that, but quite stunning nonetheless.

Have good weekends all

PS @Prime. Keep feeding the goldfish (if he’s still alive), I’m off for a liquid lunch (exits to the upbeat sound of Jazz…).

No idea on the accuracy but ChatGPT returns the following;

Short answer: the fine was imposed, appealed, temporarily suspended, and as of now (8–10 Oct 2025) it still hasn’t been finally enforced — and the European Commission has just opened a formal infringement procedure against Spain. Key points with sources:

1. Spain’s Ministry of Consumer Affairs imposed fines totalling €179 million in November 2024 on five low-cost carriers (Ryanair, Vueling, easyJet, Norwegian and Volotea) for “abusive practices” including charging for hand (cabin) luggage. easyJet’s share was widely reported at ≈€29.1 million. 

2. The airlines appealed and a Spanish court temporarily suspended (precautionary) at least parts of the sanctions in June 2025, meaning the airlines were allowed to continue applying their current pricing while litigation proceeds. The court also asked for bank guarantees to cover the potential fines. 

3. On 8 October 2025 the European Commission opened an infringement procedure (formal warning) against Spain, saying Spain’s action may breach EU rules that give airlines freedom to set prices. Brussels has given Spain two months to reply; if unresolved the case could be taken to the Court of Justice of the EU. That is a major new development that could change the outcome. 

4. So, the present legal status: the fines were imposed but are being contested in Spanish courts; parts were suspended; and now the EU has intervened — the matter is still unresolved and not finally enforced. Consumers’ groups and Spain’s government have both publicly reacted to the EU move (disagreement between Brussels and Madrid). 

@Paniv. I only track a specific flow, SOU to GLA but have briefly expanded this purely as a matter of interest. I simply go to book a flight and count the number of seats sold. TBH, I wish I had more time to do it more but I don’t. I’m a LTH but I like to get under the skin of “facts on the ground “. Or perhaps, “facts in the air” . So, no, no public figures as far as I’m aware of but I like to do some sampling of the business I’m invested in.

Yes, as Xhita has previously posted. That leaves airlines that actually have a holiday offering rather than flying people to somewhere where they may no longer have the option of booking their own accommodation. The Ryanair exit I think exposes the business model on certain flows. Filling planes is one thing but once the ability for passengers to do something at the other end is taken away the reason for being there in the first place is diluted.