Member Info for Thumper1127

@Savage. Ah, the fabled sub 400. It was going there anyway according to you. In fact I think you said 350 - 360 or thereabouts. So what’s your next “coming soon IMO DYOR”? 250?

@Mike. That doesn’t bode well. Thanks for the heads up.

Actually the PDF is the key; lots of metrics.

Link didn’t paste but give it a go, easy to find.

EZJ have just posted a video “easyJet Holidays Seminar” on their corporate/financial area of their website; just under 4 mins long, it’s worth a look:

easyJet plc - easyJet Holidays Seminar

Hope fully the link works

For all we know he may be one of the 148 passengers flying from Southampton to Alicante today. Pity EZJ couldn’t sell the remaining 8 seats!

Also a Dividend Reinvestment Plan is being launched.

4000 purchased by Harald Eisenächer at 476.

At least there was no APD.

@Savage. I refer you to my previous reply. So we are going to have heaps of passengers outside airports with placards are we?!!! In fact it would be interesting to do a bit of research and interview passengers:

Interviewer : “excuse me, we are doing some research on what passengers think about the current price of aviation fuel. What’s your view?”

Various responses including

@Savage. If oil comes down it enables airlines to offer cheaper fares! You’ve been saying “sub 400 soon” for how long is it; 12 to 18 months? EZJ and others will use yield management to adjust prices in an optimum way. Anyway, can’t stop, got to pack my bag for my extortionate £46 flight Southampton to Glasgow on Saturday.

@Beo. That’s why, in my tracking of load factors on the SOU/GLA route, I always report actual load factor and A319 equivalent. They vary the number of flights per week using A320s so the absolute load factor can become distorted. On some days using a 320 may carry no more than a 319 but on the return journey (or other legs) that day it is often more.

On today’s report I was surprised they did not raise the Divi rate to 25% of PAT.

1. Beat analysts ; the devil in me says £666m!

2. Increase in divi percentage to at least 25%

3. No buyback

4. 25/26 target £720m

5. Positive announcements of new routes.

Champagne at the ready…. Or a bottle of whisky and a revolver!!!

GLA

In checking today’s Southampton/Glasgow loadings today I’ve been very impressed in how EZJ have been able to respond to emerging demand. As of about 11:00 there were only 6 seats left GLA to SOU and just 1 on the return leg. It was scheduled as an A319 (156 seats). Checking it just now they’ve now swapped this to a 320 (186 seats). It’ll be interesting to see the final figures. At the moment the lowest prices are £163 (both directions) although earlier southbound was £237.

Impressive flexibility and no doubt very profitable!

Weekly update on Southampton/Glasgow loadings Sunday 16th to Saturday 22nd November

Both directions

2 flights A320

10 flights A319

Total seats = 1932

Sold = 1759

Load factor = 91.0%

Average PAX per flight = 147

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 12

A319 equivalent load factor 1747/1872 = 93.3%

This is slightly up on last week which I’m pleasantly surprised at.

There are two more weeks of 6 day operation before it increases to 7 days for December (except 25/12) and then it drop to 4 days a week in January.

GLA for the coming week. I’ll take a random punt on;

An increase in Profit Per Seat Flown of circa 7 to 10% (after CPI).

An increase in dividend from 20% last year to at least 25%

Anyone else care to take a punt on any figure?

The day before.

@Prime. Although my focus has been on Southampton/Glasgow for the previously stated reasons, I have widened the net on a dip sample basis to see whether holidays at the margins, rather than summer season, may help to reduce winter losses. The other day I reported on some flights from Bristol. I’ve just checked tomorrow’s Southampton to Alicante in the expectation that, in late November it must surely be loading mediocre; but not, it is currently loading 167/186, 89.8%! The inbound flight is 164/186, 88.2%. I think the fact that there are 3, 4 and 7 night options brings great flexibility and an opportunity to fill seats at this quieter time of year.

I’ll be stunned if next week’s results are anything other than really good, even after the French ATC issues. I’ll be particularly looking at the Profit Per Seat Flown metric.

@Longinvestor. That’s an interesting point. It would be good to have visibility of the split between holidays and flight only. I occasionally dip in and look at loadings on “holiday” routes and have been pleasantly surprised at some of the figures so late in the year. This morning I checked 3 routes from Bristol for today and found:

Agadir 202/235 86%

Tenerife 148/186. 79.6%

Funchal 162/186 87.1%

Very encouraging I think.

Assuming (dangerous!) a 15% increase in PAT and the Divi still being 20% it would be about 13.9p. But I think they will increase the Divi to 25 or 30 per cent which would be about 17.4 and 20.9 respectively.

@Bolland. I never predicted sub 450, only that if it did/does drop that low I’ll be topping up my LTH. Limit order already in place.