Member Info for Thumper1127

@Headforheights. Thanks for that, a very interesting article.

@Akhtar234. I had previously posted about the Tesco Clubcard and the fact that you can double the value of points when converting them to easyJet Holidays credit. But your posting reminded me to do a bit of research and get the potential penetration. Multiple searches all suggest that 23 million plus UK households have a Clubcard; 80 to 82% of households. So if just 0.1% used them that’s 23,000 holidays or short breaks. Some of that would surely be additional business.

Weekly update on Southampton/Glasgow loadings Sunday 11th to Saturday 17th January :

(No flights tomorrow)

Both directions

4 flights A320

4 flights A319

Total seats = 1368

Sold = 1199

Load factor = 87.6%

Average PAX per flight = 150

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 14

A319 equivalent load factor 1185/1248= 95.1%

Observations

Not much this but this is holding up nicely, albeit only 8 rather than 12 or 14 flights a week.

There’s also coverage in The Sun (NO I’m NOT a reader!) of the fact that you can use Tesco vouchers to get double the equivalent value in easyJet credit towards an easyJet holiday.

https://stocks.apple.com/A7qGGLlnORO6B80QDND8XRA

Hopefully the link works.

Or these

https://youtu.be/td6CD3J9kiY?si=j38_21W2pxCRwnhS

https://youtu.be/QRbKXACBaoc?si=isdJUooILl7FA6Qy

Try this. https://youtu.be/trbwqF0d7NA?si=CZr6EcWgqroKiEAb

@Stille. Your mention of Geneva prompted me to check the Southampton/Geneva flight today. Pleasantly surprised to see it loading at 175/186 - 94.1%.

That could be a new industry metric - AWPP (average weight per passenger)!!!

@ Prime. Sorry, Dad. Go easy on the tea, you do know that it’s got caffeine in it don’t you? A terrible habit!!! Get help!

@Stille. Yes, 485 or thereabouts has worked for me quite a lot. As you know I don’t do TA but I have detected it tends to get support around that level.

Separately, I re read that book over Christmas, just as good second time round!

My small limit order triggered at 484.8. Not worried about “sub 400”, he’s been predicting that for ages. Again, no rationale or reason.

@ Akhtar @ badjob @ Ephemeral Glad you find it interesting/useful. It is a microcosm of the business of course but I do it for the reasons stated. TBH, I wish I’d started doing it earlier so I could track year on year. My perception is that last summer was busier than the previous year. I have no figures but I believe there were a lot more flights using A320s rather than A319s and many of these were fully booked (or very near). I’ve also noticed of late where a flight is originally booked as a 319 but then gets swapped to a 320 and is ultimately justified in at least one direction with over 156 seats booked. EZJ do seem to be good at responding to demand by flexing the fleet, often at short notice.

Load factors are a key factor/indicator of course. However yield is obviously also important and a while back I saw a few instances of very high fares 4 or 5 days out despite there being loads of seats available. IIRC (I think I posted about it) there was an instance of £400 plus fares about 4 days out with over 50 seats still available. I thought at the time that it was either a mistake or EZJ knew something. Sure enough the flight went with only 10 empty seats meaning they sold at least 40 seats at that price; a minimum of £16k!!! Still no idea what was going on but EZJ were clearly in the know. At a lower fare the flight would probably have sold out but in the scheme of things it was a very profitable decision.

Capacity (cost) load and price (yield) are key which is why I’m always interested each year in the profit per seat flown.

I find it all fascinating but don’t let it influence my investment decisions as such; but it does give a good “feel” for the agility of the business.

As an aside, given the drop in SP on Friday and today I’ve placed a small limit order to top up my LTH. I’ll post if it triggers.

Thanks for your support.

Just been alerted to the above.

Thanks Dad!

Hi James,

Thanks for your comments which warrant a polite reply. I will explain why I post these figures and the context in which I post them and have been since August.

I am a small time EZJ shareholder of just over three years. I am medium to long term, not a trader.

Southampton is my nearest airport. It has excellent transport links, both road and rail and I have long advocated it as an alternative to Gatwick where possible. IIRC, there is a population of approximately 3.5 million within 60 minutes travel time. At Southampton Airport Parkway station it is circa 100 footsteps on the flat from the exit on platform 2 to the airport entrance. It is a hassle free airport.

Southampton/Glasgow is a route I’ve used many times on business some years ago. I’ve also used it to reach the west coast of Scotland, including many of the Western Isles; much missed gems of our land. EZJ added Paris, Amsterdam and Belfast as well as Barcelona, Alicante and Faro. I expect there will be more to come (Nice perhaps?).

I’ve long believed that regional can be an important part of EZJ growth. Clearly the holiday business is the major growth area but having regional routes which, on the face of it, are giving fantastic load factors all year (assuming all continues to go well) must be a good thing; if it helps minimise winter losses then that surely must be good.

I made it clear in my first postings about the route that I did so with no SP agenda but as an EZJ shareholder with a specific interest in regional and Southampton (but not to the exclusion of the wider picture).

So what do “loading factors have anything to do with anything”? Well, it’s pretty fundamental, along with price, asset utilisation, presence and growth. But my original posting (August) was to target the success or otherwise of a relatively new route which is one I’m interested in from a personal perspective and which may indicate latent demand/opportunity for regional airports.

So there is my polite reply. But please don’t call me Son, a bit rude perhaps?

Re the dividend, I normally use it to buy more shares. But I’ve looked at the EZJ holidays option for the new Bristol to Sal Cape Verde route; very tempting, 3 flights a week at good times so a 5 or 7 day break in May could well be in the cards!

Weekly update on Southampton/Glasgow loadings Sunday 4th to Saturday 10 th January :

Both directions

2 flights A320

6 flights A319

Total seats = 1308

Sold = 1203

Load factor = 92.0%

Average PAX per flight = 150

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 16

A319 equivalent load factor 1187/1248= 95.1%

Observations

As it is now only 4 days a week it’s interesting to look at loadings. None of the flights using 319s was sold out (153/156 was the highest). With no flights on Tuesday and Wednesday the Thursday flight was scheduled for a 320; a sensible move as the GLA to SOU leg loaded 172/186. The SOU to GLA loaded 151. So again, EZJ have got it right. I honestly expected load factors, absolute and 319 equivalent, to go sub 90% so although it is the quiet time of year loadings are still extremely healthy.

3 more weeks of 4 day operation before it increases to 6 for 2 weeks and then 7.

GLA for the coming week, let’s hope it will reverse the pull back this last week. Any fall towards 485 ish and I’ll be in for a small top up.

Weekly update on Southampton/Glasgow loadings Sunday 28th to Saturday 3rd January :

Both directions

10 flights A320

4 flights A319

Total seats = 2484

Sold = 2199

Load factor = 87.2%

Average PAX per flight = 157

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 104

A319 equivalent load factor 2095/2184 = 95.9%

Observations

Normally, out and back loadings each day are pretty well balanced in the main, although there are apparently random noticeable differences at time. There was an interesting, but not surprising, pattern this time; loadings SOU to GLA on 30th and 31st were significantly height than GLA to SOU - 73 more seats sold. Conversely GLA to SOU on 1st and 2nd had 72 more than the other direction. This is no doubt due to VFR traffic for the New Year celebrations.

Of the 10 operated by 320s, 5 operated in excess of A319 capacity. So although this is only 50% this did meet anticipated demand for the New Year flow bringing 104 more passengers. Conversely, of the 4 operated by 319s none were fully booked (but very close) so it would seem EZJ made good use of the fleet mix without missing latent demand. Impressive.

It now drops to 4 days a week for January and looking at current suppressed fares I expect loadings to drop off significantly.

GLA for 2026!

I meant today’s 4 flights to AMS sold out.

… and all 4 flights from London airports today sold out.