Member Info for Thumper1127

Setting aside politics, as well as my usual SOU/GLA loadings I’ve been keeping an eye on the SOU/ALC route as this currently operates on Mondays and Fridays, giving excellent opportunities for a short break away. The out Monday morning, return Monday afternoon option is particularly attractive. In fact the proof of the pudding is in the loading:

Out tomorrow 181/186 - 97.%, back Monday 165/186 - 86.6%. Combined 91.9%. I’ve seen bookings increase quite significantly is the last week or so, suggesting to me that people are taking late decisions to get away.

But a bit of political fun!

On the flight out it is loaded slightly more on the left hand side of the plane. On the return slightly more to the right. I think this proves that marginal seats count!! That’s the extent of my political comment.

CORRECTION. Whoops! Seems I messed up on today’s SOU/GLA; it is a 319, not a 320. Must have looked at tomorrow or Thursday. Sorry but if I make a mistake I always look to correct. Normal service is restored!

As part of my monitoring of the SOU - GLA route (both directions) I’ve previously mentioned that sometimes EZJ swap out a 319 for a 320, giving 30 extra seats each way. It’s happening tomorrow. Originally it was a 319 and this mourning the southbound had 43 seats left. As at circa 1600 today it had 37 BUT it had been swapped to a 320. So effectively it only had 7 of the original seats free with 24 hours to go. The switch may be for pure operational reasons of course but it smacks of a nifty response to emerging demand. Only time will tell of course but I’d be surprised if it doesn’t load in excess of 156.

Today’s flights yielded 310 out of 312 (99.4%) so a good start to the week.

GLA for the coming week.

Dip sample out of Manchester today. All operated by A320s

Sharm El Shiek Sold out

Antalya Sold out

Tenerife 170/186

Agadir 169/186

So that’s 712/744 - 95.6%

The two Geneva flights are not so good. 288/372 - 77.4%.

I’ve done a dip sample of flights from Bristol to holiday destinations tomorrow morning into early afternoon. For the popular destinations of:

Agadir, Malaga, Malta, Palma, Faro, Tenerife and Alicante total seats are 1537 (7 x 186 + 235). Total sold is 1238, giving a load factor of 83.5%

I’ve separated out Geneva as there are 5 flights tomorrow. Total seats 930, sold 810, giving a load factor of 87.1%.

No doubt a lot of this will be EZJ holidays/short breaks with better margins than flight only. In the scheme of things, for early February, I think these figures are respectable and reassuring.

If I get chance I’ll look at Birmingham and possibly Manchester/Glasgow.

As always, this is just observation and SP agnostic.

Weekly update on Southampton/Glasgow loadings Sunday 25th to Saturday 31st January :

Both directions

2 flights A320

6 flights A319

Total seats = 1308

Sold = 1255

Load factor = 95.9%

Average PAX per flight = 157

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 21

A319 equivalent load factor 1234/1248= 98.9%

Observations

An incredible week, especially Sunday and Monday where there were only three unsold seats for the 4 flights; that’s 621/624. In fact, the Sunday GLA to SOU was sold out on Saturday and the Monday SOU to GLA was sold out on Sunday. I half expected EZJ to swap out the A319s for A320s (as they do on occasions) but presumably this was not possible/viable. But as previously detailed Monday was a bumper revenue day with both legs fully booked and at least 42 seats sold at £353 on the northbound flight.

4 out of 8 flights were fully booked and the one day of A320 operation (Thursday) loaded in excess of a A319 on both legs - 21 in total.

I’m very pleasantly surprised at the load factors for January; I half expected it to go sub 90% but apart from the odd day it didn’t. The reduction to only 4 day operation means overall revenues are lower of course but at least those that did operate were extremely well loaded. This route is an absolute year round banker.

It now rises to 6 day operation for the next two weeks before rising to 7 day.

As always, the normal caveats; a single route only and totally SP agnostic.

Hope all have good weekends.

@Prime (sorry, Dad). You’re not back on your pyramid selling scam again are you?!!!

@Akhtar234. The A321 LR and XLR have got the range. The A321 ceo would be heavily limited. JetBlue and TAP already go transatlantic with 321s which are pretty much a 757 competitor I believe (may have got that last bit wrong).

Further thoughts:

If you subtract the circa £30m cost of the set up of Milan and Rome you get back to virtually the same loss figure as Q1 last year. Take into account the increased revenue this is effectively a reduction in loss by comparison.

I’m convinced that the short break holiday is/will act as big contributor to reducing losses/improving profits at the margins. I previously posted some of my loading observations in November/December on some key routes from Bristol. Having just checked the Southampton to Alicante and Amsterdam flights for tomorrow I see loadings of 182 and 166 respectively; that’s an average load factor of 93.5%! In January going into February?!!!! Having 3 flights a week gives options for 3 and 5 day breaks. The fact that I could leave for Alicante on a Friday morning and leave around lunchtime on the Monday makes it very attractive. In fact 2 friends of mine are going out next Monday morning and back Friday afternoon; not prompted by me, only found out a few days ago.

I will post my usual weekly update on SOU/GLA tomorrow or Saturday but I expect the week figure to be 95% plus. If get a chance over the weekend I’ll look at some holiday/short break routes from the likes of Bristol, Birmingham etc. and report back.

Separately I see Wizz are seeking approval to operate UK/US flights. I do wonder if EZJ may consider this at some stage but feel it would be a distraction to do so anytime soon; to me the business is doing all the right things with sustained growth and a balanced model and they should continue what they are doing without going off piste. I’m content as a LTH but can understand the frustration of those with a shorter term view; to me the SP does not reflect the true value of the business.

GLM

What do I make of it?

As a LTH I find this very reassuring. The increase in load factor to 90% is very impressive and the fact that forward bookings are up slightly a good sign. Holidays is obviously the jewel, built on a solid core business. A significant reduction in net debt.

It’s a pity there’s no visibility of the start up costs for Rome and Milan as that could put the headline loss increase into perspective. But IMO Rome and Milan will yield significant benefits later in the year.

Absolutely nothing within the control of EZJ to cause me any concern, only an affirmation that for LTH this is solid.

Good try Savage. I wonder what the Trustpilot review summary looks like.., oh, here it is…

Review summary

Based on reviews, created with AI

Reviewers overwhelmingly had a great experience with this company. Customers consistently praise the seamless booking process and clear communication provided throughout their holiday experience. Many reviewers highlight the excellent value for money, especially when booking packages that include flights, transfers, and accommodation. Consumers also appreciate the availability of helpful and friendly staff, both on the phone and at the hotels. People frequently mention the quality of the hotels, often exceeding expectations with cleanliness, comfort, and convenient locations. The positive experiences extend to various destinations, with reviewers expressing satisfaction with the service, staff, and overall organization of their trips. The holidays booked with this company are considered a great and easy experience.

I posted about the Monday SOU to GLA as being priced at a minimum of £353 with 42 seats remaining. Assuming there is no mistake all 42 are no sold. I only noticed the £353 fare at 42 seats, it may have applied before that. So at minimum that’s £14,826! What a money spinner. Assuming an average fare of £70 (conservative, they were £100+ way before getting to be 42 left), that’s another £7,980 (114 seats). So that’s a minimum £22,806. With seat selection, cabin and hold luggage I’d be surprised if this single flight was not grossing at least £24k!

Thanks for that. I had it in my diary for Tuesday for some reason. RYN on Monday isn’t it?

Weekly update on Southampton/Glasgow loadings Sunday 18th to Saturday 24th January :

Both directions

2 flights A320

6 flights A319

Total seats = 1308

Sold = 1213

Load factor = 92.7%

Average PAX per flight = 152

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 27

A319 equivalent load factor 1186/1248= 95.0%

Observations

Holding nice and steady. 1 more week of 4 day operation before it rises to 6 for two weeks and then 7 until the end of April.

Interestingly I’m seeing another case this coming week of EZJ potentially trading off load factor for yield. As at yesterday morning there were still 42 available seats (out of 156) for Monday and yet the cheapest fare was £349 and promptly rose to £353. As at 09:00 this morning there are 28 seats left. So that’s 14 seats sold bringing in at least £4,900 before any seat selection, cabin and hold luggage upgrades. That’s the equivalent of selling all the 42 seats at £116 each. Last time this happened the fare subsequently rose to over £400 and in the event the flight went with only 10 empty seats. It will be interesting to see how it ends up, I’ll post on Monday.

As always, the normal caveats; a single route only and totally SP agnostic.

Hope all have good weekends.

Savage. Still dreaming of sub 400 soon? Of course, with inflation slightly up the disinflation you spouted would bring doom is off the table clearly!

It is a bit like to Moose Head in Fawlty Towers… “it’s up….its down again”!

I’ve long held the view that short and City Breaks are good potential growth area deserving of targeted marketing. I did see a TV advert over the weekend specifically mentioning City Breaks but I’d like to see EZJ push them more. People will always want their summer holiday but a short break in the Spring or Autumn can break the year up.

Mention was made the other day of upcoming Q1 results and expectations. I’ve previously posted how surprised I was at the loadings of the Southampton/Alicante route in November and December. I think the fact that you could do 3, 5 or 7 days (and permutations thereof) gave flexibility. This month it dropped from three to two flights a week (Monday and Friday) and the flight times have changed; out 0810 Friday, return Monday 1230 (local time) so fantastic for a weekend away. But surely not many people will be doing this in January, will they?…..

Well, out tomorrow is currently loading 167/186 and return on Monday is 166/186. So that’s a combined factor of 89.5%. Any my guess is that a significant proportion of this will be EZJ short holiday bookings.

Only 1 route of course but if EZJ are able to sell breaks in the leaner months then this could help to reduce losses. Hoping the Q1 update reflects an uplift in traffic at the shoulders.

GLA

SP suddenly rising. A result of Trump saying he won’t use force to take Greenland perhaps?

From a ChatGPT search;

Here’s the latest on the European Union’s new carry-on luggage rules for flights — based on recent votes and proposals from the European Parliament’s Transport Committee and related EU travel policy discussions:

🛫 What the EU lawmakers have voted on

1. Guaranteed free carry-on & personal item allowance

EU lawmakers (European Parliament) have approved a proposal that, once fully adopted into law, would require all airlines operating in, to, or from the EU to allow passengers to bring the following without paying extra:

• One personal item (e.g., handbag, laptop bag)

• One small carry-on bag in the cabin

Airlines would not be allowed to charge extra fees above the ticket price for these items. 

2. Standardised size and weight limits

Under the proposal:

• The personal item must have maximum dimensions of about 40 × 30 × 15 cm

• The main carry-on cabin bag should have combined dimensions of up to 100 cm (for example, roughly 55 × 40 × 20 cm)

• The cabin bag would have a maximum weight of around 7 kg

These are minimum standards: airlines may permit larger/heavier bags if they choose, but not smaller. 

3. Aims to remove confusion and hidden fees

The reform is intended to end the patchwork of different carry-on policies across airlines (especially low-cost carriers that have charged for hand luggage). Standardisation will make allowances clearer and prevent surprise charges at check-in or boarding. 

🔎 Important caveat: not fully in force yet

• The European Parliament’s vote is a key step in the legislative process, but new rules must still be formally adopted by EU member states (Council of the EU) and then enter into law.

• That means the changes aren’t law yet, though some industry players (like Ryanair) are already adjusting their policies to align with future minimum standards. 

@Savage. For once I totally agree with you; easyJet keep refilling their planes with passengers!