Member Info for Thumper1127

@Bolland. I never predicted sub 450, only that if it did/does drop that low I’ll be topping up my LTH. Limit order already in place.

@Savage. Can you evidence your claim that EZJ have high prices that passengers are resisting? Do you have access to internal EZJ accounts/price sensitivity/load factors? Have you been scanning their booking system? I can see loads of sub £100 fares and also some very good (for EZJ )higher fares. I’m also seeing some very good load factors for the time of year on many routes (but for balance some low factors). Can you bring any facts rather than opinion to the table?

Regarding incomes a quick check reveals the following;

Short answer — for the latest published month (year to September 2025):

• Consumer prices (CPI): +3.8% (12 months to September 2025).

• Average weekly earnings (regular pay, three-month annual growth July–Sep 2025): +4.6% (nominal).

So nominal pay growth (4.6%) was higher than CPI inflation (3.8%). In real terms pay rose too:

• Regular pay, real (CPIH-adjusted): +0.5% (annual, July–Sep 2025).

Re deflation, do you mean deflation or lower inflation (towards the 2% target)? Deflation would be bad of course, lower inflation good surely?

Facts please Savage!

@Prime. I think it’s Wednesday.

My limit order just triggered at 460. Small top up for my LTH

GLA

Loganair are picking up Southampton to Jersey starting tomorrow. You can book well into next year so it would seem they already knew and were ready.

From ChatGPT:

Good question. Yes — Blue Islands has suspended trading and cancelled all its flights as of 14 November 2025. 

Here’s a summary of what’s happened:

• The airline announced it was suspending operations immediately. 

• It said they’d been in talks with the Government of Jersey for support, but that further funding was not forthcoming. 

• As a result, all future flights are cancelled, and customers are being advised to not go to the airport. 

• For passengers who booked:

• If you booked directly, you should contact your bank or credit card provider. 

• If you booked via Aurigny (their codeshare partner), you should contact Aurigny — some of those flights may still operate. 

• If via a travel agent/holiday company, get in touch with them for options. 

• Loganair is stepping in with “rescue flights” on affected routes, starting very soon (from 16 Nov). 

• The Jersey government has indicated it will provide some support for affected staff. 

So, in short: yes, Blue Islands has effectively gone bust (at least for now), having suspended operations.

Bust, not busy!!!

Just heard that Blue Islands, serving the Channel Islands, has suspended operations and are effectively busy. Loganair and Auringy are going to put on rescue flights. Unless rescued/taken over, a gap for EZJ to fill but in a limited way from Southampton?

Weekly update on Southampton/Glasgow loadings Sunday 9th to Saturday 15th November

Both directions

2 flights A320

10 flights A319

Total seats = 1932

Sold = 1733

Load factor = 89.7%

Average PAX per flight = 144

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 13

A319 equivalent load factor 1720/1872 = 91.9%

GLA for the coming week.

I see Germany are actually reducing their equivalent of APD!

Yes, the number of UK domestic flights has fallen in the last 20 years. And a significant amount of that will be due to faster and more frequent rail services. Rail’ share of the London to Manchester market increased massively when the West Coast mainline was upgraded to 125mph with tilting trains and a 20 minute interval service introduced. Likewise Newcastle (but not tilting). The general rule was that where rail could do a domestic journey in around three hours it was likely to draw people away from flights. But now the rail industry considers 3 and a half hours to be the general benchmark.

There are some good regional routes of course, notably Bristol where EZJ serve Glasgow, Edinburgh, Newcastle and Inverness. From Birmingham there is Edinburgh and Glasgow. On all of these routes rail cannot compete on journey time. At Southampton, Loganair recently reintroduced a daily Manchester service. Unsure how this may do but with an hourly train service taking 4 and a quarter hours they should be able to fill the 50 or so seats. The Southampton to Glasgow route is holding up very well, it is now firmly established. Load factors for this week look to be down on recent highs but still very respectable. Today’s Southampton to Alicante was not available to book earlier suggesting it was already sold out. The Barcelona was loading 138/156 and the Amsterdam a mere 185/186!!

As far as I can see this article is not explicitly saying that current domestic flights are reducing, only the change over the last 20 years. It would be interesting to make the comparison over a 3 or 5 year period (excluding COVID of course). Regional is by no means dead!

There is the Jet2 update next Wednesday of course.

@Dinoken. I would guess so but it would be somewhat hypocritical given that airport expansion has been sanctioned on the basis that it is good for the economy. As for the effect, probably minimal in the scheme of things if it is a modest increase.

Wizz update tomorrow. Any bad news on loadings, price sensitivity etc could end up with a read through to EZJ? Sollers could get his 450 after all! Here’s hoping not.

Kenton was on BBC new at one yesterday as part of the 30 years news. But I tend to agree that he needs to be more visible/vocal.

Good coverage on the BBC 1 o’clock news. Nothing wrong in getting a bit of free brand exposure.

Speaking of new routes I read somewhere that BA are ceasing flights from LHR to both Cologne and Stuttgart from March. Perhaps EZJ should reinstate from LGW? I believe they did historically serve both from LGW. Ryanair serve both from Stansted I believe.

I’ve mentioned before that there is an excellent book, easyJet Rising by Tony Anderson, the third employee and first Marketing Director. It cover the set up of the company right through to flotation. It’s well written. Informative and funny. Well worth the £8 or so for anyone interested.

Weekly update on Southampton to Glasgow loadings Sunday 2nd to Saturday 8th November

As I mentioned last week I’m now tracking both directions but to keep it simple I’m reporting it as consolidated figures:

2 flights A320

10 flights A319

Total seats = 1932

Sold = 1743

Load factor = 90.2%

Average PAX per flight = 145

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 14

A319 equivalent load factor 1729/1872 = 92.4%

A definite softening of demand but still very respectable, and no doubt profitable, load factors.

GLA for the coming week.

@Sollers. You keep saying this. You are entitled to say it of course. But on what basis, what is your argument, what is your evidence, your thoughts? Please don’t be a Savage understudy!!! I’ve got a limit order in place in case of a drop towards that level but please tell us all your basis for such a (repeated!!!) prediction. Are you a bot?