Member Info for Thumper1127

They’ve already announced a reduction in capacity to Spain. Perhaps the competition is nibbling at their toes?

@Webba. Yes, it’s interesting on how to maximise profit per PAX or per day aircraft diagram. In my tracking of Southampton/Glasgow loadings (reasons and caveats as previously posted) I’ve being doing a bit more investigation on the use of A320s instead of A319s (30 more seats on a 320 of course) and also looking at the Glasgow/Southampton direction. For example, today the SOU to GLA had 26 unsold seats, so only 4 more than a 319. So in isolation it would not be seen as impressive. But the previous outward working from GLA to SOU loaded 184/186. On arrival in GLA it then works a return trip to Antalya. I missed that loading (doh!) but for the return leg it was loaded 173/186. So for the three legs that’s a load factor 517/558, 92.7%.

Southampton/Glasgow loadings are starting to soften but are still very respectable. My understanding is that the general rule of thumb is that once loadings exceed 70% then anything else is effectively pure operating profit.

I’m confident in my investment, I’m sitting in positive territory (average 391) and am sure the SP will recover to 500 + quite soon and will finally break the 600 in due course; no predictions on timescale but if there are very good results in November then I wouldn’t rule out 600 this side of Christmas. I’m not worried about any sub 400 warnings; I don’t believe it will happen but if it does I will be piling in; the fundamentals are good.

Correction required Savage; you didn’t say it would go nowhere, you said it would go “sub 400”.

That was a UT I believe.

@Marie. I believe the resolution to do a buy back is already in place. Who knows what November will bring? I think they will announce an increase in dividend to 25 or 30% of PAT; whether they announce the start of a buy back is a separate matter.

GLA

@Prime. Yes, he must be deflated. To be fair, he has been predicting deflation (following a period of disinflation which I assume means lower inflation!).

I just happened to be looking at loadings from Glasgow to Southampton rather than the other way round. Thursday and Friday are very high fares, currently £203 and £462(!!) respectively. And yet there are still over 40 seats available on each. I can’t find any obvious reason. Clearly EZJ are in the know on something!

Today’s Glasgow to Southampton is sold out, return working only has 16 seats left. So even if no more are sold that’s a return load of 296/312, 94.9%

And think on what you’ll save on your heating bill!

Weekly update on Southampton to Glasgow loadings Sunday 28th to Saturday 4th October

3 days A320

4 days A319

Total seats = 1182

Sold = 1113

Load factor = 94.2%

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 52

A319 equivalent load factor 1061/1092 - 97.2%

As always, my figures may be a slight understatement as I take the figures typically an hour or so before booking closes or the previous evening for earlier morning departures.

Bookings not only holding up but actually slightly higher than the previous two weeks.

I’m impressed how EZJ flex the use of A320s. In virtually all cases the 320s have loaded in excess of the 319 capacity and where 319s are used they tend to load in the mid 90s. Only one was 100% load suggesting there may have been latent demand unfulfilled; but it only hit 100% very late.

Demand must start to fall in the coming weeks and I note that for the coming week A320s are only being used on two days, Wednesday and Saturday. But even then this route, consistently loading in the +90%s, clearly has core demand and is a firmly established route.

All the usual caveats of course. I will continue to monitor as I’m interested in how seasonal it is. It does drop back to 6 days a week later this month (Tuesday is normally the first day to be dropped).

I hope my postings on this subject are found to be interesting at least.

GLA

Today’s Southampton/Glasgow loadings at booking closure 151/156, 96.8%. With still tomorrow to go, even without any more sales, the 7 days will be the highest for the last 5 weeks, both absolute and A319 equivalent. I’ll post full details tomorrow but this route is textbook!

You may think that @Prime, I couldn’t possibly comment! I’m still waiting for his long predicted “sub 400 soon” to happen so we can all hoover up.

FWIW, I will tomorrow be reporting quite frankly a 5th week of fantastic Southampton/Glasgow loadings. A pin prick in the scheme of things but reassuring nonetheless.

Hi. I just go on the app as if making a booking and at the seat selection count how many are available and calculate from there. My interest is a specific route/flow for reasons previously posted (happy to post again).

Personally I’m not in favour of monthly figures (not just in the airline industry). IMO they are too granular and, of course, the number of weekend days vs weekdays will vary. A moving 3 month average perhaps bit even then there is the issue in the early part of the year of where public holidays land. Interesting yes, but not the basis on which to make any extrapolation.

@Thissen. That sounds great, I’d love to do similar but don’t have the time (yet!)! On a much smaller scale I occasionally walk old railway lines. I like the history and how nature starts to reclaim the land and grow back. Wonderful plants and wildlife. On a hot sunny day walking under the canopy of trees, sitting on a log with a packed lunch etc is so relaxing.

On the SP, I’m convinced this will eventually get and stay above £6 and march on much higher. I’m LTH rather trade (at the moment at least). I think the November figures will show solid growth; whether the SP reflects this is down to the market of course.

@Thissen. If you are into trekking/long distance walking I can recommend an inspiring read from some years ago - Journey Through Europe by John Hillaby. He leaves England and walks to the south of France. He describes the journey, the places, the people etc fantastically and goes off piste at time with some of his thoughts and musings. When I got to the end of the book (when he reaches the Med) all I wanted to do was pack my rucksack and go; never did of course! Pick yourself up a second hand copy. He wrote other travelling books as well.

I want to walk the West Highland way at some point while I still can; the West Highlands and Islands are stunning and so many brits never see what’s on our own Island.

On the subject of books and EZJ there’s a very good book, easyJet Rising by Tony Anderson, 3rd ever employee and Marketing Director. It’s an easy read (no pun intended), informative and funny. It covers the origins of EZJ and the journey right up to floatation. I’ve recommended it to a number of people and no one has regretted it.

Southampton/Glasgow loadings holding up well so far this week. In fact bookings Sunday to today are slightly up when compared to last week; total seats 684, sold 648 - 94.9%. A319 equivalent 642, sold 609 - 97.6%.

The usual caveats of course and no attempt at ramping. This must surely start to soften but it’s holding up much better than I expected.

@Thissen. Just looked at the trek, I’d never heard of it. I take my hat off to you, I thought 5 miles on the level was an achievement!

Deflation or lower inflation. Please clarify.

@Savage. Do you have inside information that EZJ have no tangible rise in passenger numbers? How elevated are the ticket prices (use a tangible comparison please)? OTB effectively have little tangible assets and have, I believe, issued a profit warning (hence the drop in SP). EZJ have assets and have not issued a profit warning as far as Im aware. I’m sorry Savage but as placid and mild a person I am, and I’m prepared to listen to others’ opinions, you just seem to spread doom and gloom and try to trash EZJ. By your own admission you are not invested in EZJ and always post as “Strong sell”. I could waste my time and point out the many contradictions you have posted; I won’t but I have a simple question:

WHAT IS YOUR AGENDA?