Member Info for Thumper1127

Thanks. I’m going to continue monitoring Southampton/Glasgow loadings. I know it’s only one route but I find it interesting to see how the route develops. EZJ flew over 1000 passengers in the last week. Today’s flight is currently 182 out of 186 97.8%. Forward prices from the rest of the month look healthy, 14 days are already over £100.

GLA for the week ahead.

I’ve just used ChatGPT (or GBH as I prefer to call it!) to do a search for new routes easyJet are adding between October and December. I can’t vouch for its accuracy but it looks pretty comprehensive;

Airport Route(s) & Launch Dates

Southampton Barcelona (Oct), Geneva (Dec)

Bristol Zurich (Oct), Vienna (Nov), Munich (Nov), Verona (Dec)

Birmingham Lanzarote (Oct), Prague (Nov), Marrakech (Dec), Reykjavik (Dec), Kraków & Innsbruck (Dec)

Newcastle Rhodes (Nov), Sharm El Sheikh (Dec/Jan)

Southend Barcelona (Oct), Lanzarote (Oct), Salzburg (Dec), Berlin (Nov), Grenoble (Dec)

Liverpool Almeria (Oct), Kraków (Nov), Vienna (Nov)

Gatwick / Manchester Scandinavian Mountains Airport (Dec)

Glasgow Lanzarote (Oct), Fuerteventura (Oct), Marrakech (Nov), Prague (Nov, year-round)

Edinburgh Agadir (Nov, year-round)

Belfast Int’l Prague (Nov), Marrakech (Nov)

Newcastle (Paris CDG) Paris CDG (Oct, six weekly)

Leeds Bradford Geneva (Jan 2026 – beyond 2025)

Personally I’m pleased that Zurich/Bristol is being added as I have an elderly friend who lives near Zurich whose son lives in Cardiff; that’ll make family visits a lot easier for them.

Scope there. And that completes the Nerd O’clock new. Now for the shipping forecast… https://youtu.be/N2t_x2Ag82Y?si=GYDmP6Lny-I4vRmV

Southampton/Glasgow loadings and observations.

And now for the Nerd O’clock news!

I’ve moved away from actively monitoring prices on the Southampton/Glasgow route but instead have been looking at load factors. This is partly because I’m interested in the expansion of passenger numbers at Southampton as an alternative to Gatwick. Southampton has a large catchment area within 60 minutes travel time, excellent transport connections and capacity. It’s a great airport to fly from. Obviously, as a shareholder I’m interested in the success of EZJ.

It’s three years this month I believe that EZJ started regularly serving Southampton (apart from seasonal routes, Geneva for the ski season etc.). When the Glasgow route started I did wonder if it was sustainable given that Loganair had a regular service with multiple flights a day. Loganair withdrew from the route not long after EZJ started, citing operating reasons. Flights were almost invariably A319s but in the last few months I’ve noticed more and more are A320s, giving 186 instead of 156 seats. Last month many days were sold out or in the healthy 90% load factors. Well, it was August I suppose!

Now we are moving into the autumn I thought I’d see how it was holding up. So the scores on the doors from last Sunday to today are:

Sunday 174 of 186 = 93.5%

Monday 160 of 186 = 86%

Tuesday 120 of 156 = 76.9%

Wednesday 147 of 186 = 79%

Thursday 142 of 156 = 91%

Friday 170 of 186 = 91.4%

Saturday 169 of 186 = 90.9%

Week total 1082 of 1242 = 87.1%

The Tuesday flight has only just been added back to the schedule so it may be that lack of advance awareness suppressed the loading. Nevertheless a load factor in excess of 70% is, I understand, the sweet spot at which good operational profit is made.

What I’ve also done is re-run the figures to see what the load factors would have been if they were all operated by 319s with 156 seats:

Sunday, Monday, Friday and Saturday all 100%. Tuesday and Thursday would have remained the same and Wednesday would have been 94.2%. The week figure would have been 94.6%. I’ve assumed that any fare in excess of 156 would have been lost rather than move to another day so I am taking a conservative view. This would have been a loss of 49 passengers.

In all cases I may be understating final loadings as I typically take the figure about three hours before flight time (or late evening previous day for early morning flights); there is still an hour for late notice bookings.

Loadings will no doubt start to drop off as we move into the leaner months but the above gives me confidence that EZJ are well established at Southampton now. I dip in occasionally to look at the Amsterdam and Paris routes and they seem to be holding up well. I can only see EZJ expanding at Southampton and, as I’ve stated before, would love them to dip their toes in the water with a few Edinburgh/Jersey routes two or three times a week to see if there is

@stille. Price Nerd?!!! I resemble that remark! I will be posting some figures later but not on pricing but loadings, especially the advantages of using 320s instead of 319s. At the moment EZJ will this last week (Sunday to Saturday) will be flying over 1000 passengers from Southampton to Glasgow.

@Xhita. I don’t get excited by it but it is nice to have. In the last 2 cases I’ve simply used it to buy more shares.

Here’s hoping for a better day tomorrow and a rise back to the 490 area at least (not holding my breath).

@Prime. Can you set your alarm for 08:00 tomorrow to remind you to feed the Goldfish so he has to come up to eat? And no spicy chicken wings this time!

GLA

@Stille @Stupmy @Poker. Thanks all, maybe I’ll just stick to the Isle of Wight!!!

Still got a small limit order in at 465. Not wishing for it to be triggered but just in case. Lots of uncertain factors out there but I think the reaction to Jet2 is over the top. But the market is the market.

Thanks Poker, much appreciated, I’ll do a bit of research later.

@Poker. Funny you should mention SOU to BCN, I picked up on that a while back as SOU is my local airport (I bang on about it enough!). I’m actively thinking of a break late next month, never been to BCN. If anyone has any pointers on it they would be appreciated.

I’m convinced EZJ will add more routes to SOU in 26/27. The Glasgow route does very well.

Placed a small limit order earlier but not triggered yet (but got to within 2p!).

GLA

Funds at the ready for another small top up based on my LTH plans.

@Prime. He’ll be ok, bound to be the spicy chicken wings!

Southampton/Glasgow loadings have been good of late, 90%+ on many days although they are easing now (as can be expected). Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday and normally A320s rather than 319s and this has reaped benefits with loadings significantly above the 156 limit of a 319. Had some good loadings on the Amsterdam/Paris routes as well.

Just picked this up:

“Ryanair recorded a 2% growth in passenger numbers last month as it expanded capacity.

The Dublin-based airline said it carried 21.0 million passengers in August, up from 20.5 million during the same month last year.

Its load factor – which is the proportion of seats filled on flights – was unchanged at 96%.

The airline’s passenger numbers in the 12 months to the end of August grew by 6% to 203.6 million.

Wizz Air said it carried 6.9 million passengers last month, up 11% from 6.2 million in August 2024.”

My small limit order just triggered at 484.77.

We will in due course. For LTH I say hold tight, the fundamentals are all there, it will come good one way or another. EasyJet WILL be rising!

They cite the reason they are pulling them is an increase in airport fees.

Regarding no longer going to expand in the UK, they wanted Reeves to scrap APD I believe. That was never going to happen, they knew that, it was all hot air for publicity in my opinion. Classic, like when, many years ago, O’Leary said he planned to have only one pilot and train cabin crew to stand in if there was an emergency. Or charging to use the toilet.

@jules. Thanks so much for the reply, very informative. I sort of understand the principles of TA but not the complexities which must take a lot of time learn, test and repeat until the model you arrive at gives you a reasonable level of confidence. Some people think TA is rubbish, I don’t, I just don’t understand it enough to use it; but I do detect patterns!

Thanks

@Jules. What do you consider to be the current support level? I don’t do TA but have detected around 485. I’ve picked up quite a lot this year around that level. One limit was triggered this week, outstanding one narrowly missed today.

Have good weekends all.

I’ve only just picked up that for the coming winter Ryanair are pulling a further million seats from regional Spanish airports. I wonder if there are any specific gaps EZJ could look to mop up.

Another small limit order placed at 485 just in case.

GLA