Member Info for Thumper1127

@Savage. So if the oil price falls doesn’t this cushion airlines (hedge position dependent of course) against your prediction of passengers becoming more price sensitive?

@Savage. On that basis I believe you will not become an EZJ shareholder then. But if you do, barring the SP dropping that low for an external reason, I will be piling in as I’m sure others will. I can see no fundamental reason for it to drop so low, especially to the exclusion of other airlines.

@Savage. A fantastic buying opportunity if it does. Will you be looking to get in?

@Stille. That’s encouraging. SOU/GLA today is 178/186 and tomorrow 155/156.

@Savage. I don’t believe it will go sub 400 (I could be wrong) but if it does and there is no obvious reason (external events, bad results in November etc) I will be topping up; the fundamentals are fine IMO and as I am mid to long term (2 years plus) I have time to wait. I think if the November figures are good and if they lift the dividend it could provide a good.

Weekly update on Southampton to Glasgow loadings Sunday 21st to Saturday 27th September.

4 days A320

3 days A319

Total seats = 1212

Sold = 1102

Load factor = 91.9%

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 44

A319 equivalent load factor 1058/1092 - 96.9%

As always, my figures may be a slight understatement as I take the figures typically an hour or so before booking closes or the previous evening for earlier morning departures.

I now have figures for the 4 weeks from 31st August to 27th September and the totals are:

17 days A320

11 days A319

Total seats = 4878

Sold = 4435

Load factor = 90.9%

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 234

A319 equivalent load factor 4201/4368, 96.2%

The number of A320s per week varies from 3 to 5 and it seems that EZJ are good at flexing capacity. Of the 17 days of A320s, 15 loaded in excess of the A319 capacity of 156 seats. On the other 2 days it was 147 and 156.

I’ll be honest and say that I half expected numbers to drop off this last week but they clearly haven’t.

On the flexing of capacity by varying the days of A320 operation, it must be quite an art form as it will involve others legs on the day’s diagram. Typically this is 4 return trips (8 legs) but on some days it can be 3 return trips (2 short haul, 1 longer haul). I don’t know if there is an opportunity to switch between A320 and A319 part way through the day (after 4 single trips which logically would be the point of crew change). Anyone in the know on here?

It is one route, one direction only I know but seeing the loadings and how EZJ flexi capacity to maximise sales is impressive. This looks to be a textbook operation and fares have been very impressive from an SP perspective. It must be very profitable.

I’m not using this in any way to talk EZJ up from an SP perspective; it is observation only.

The holiday business gets a lot of focus (quite rightly) as being the profit growth area but I believe targeted expansion of regional flows can really make a difference. From a Southampton perspective I hope EZJ add more routes; Edinburgh and Jersey in particular, even if only 2 or 3 days a week.

Can anyone suggest any other UK regional airports EZJ may want to consider? I’ve often thought that Exeter may be worth trying out.

GLA for the week ahead.

It’s 3 years to the day that I first invested in shares. I’d thought about it for many years and even “predicted” that certain shares would recover/soar but never had the gumption to take the plunge. But 3 years ago inflation was about 10% and interest rates were in the region of 2.25%. My savings were being eroded so I thought “what the hell, if I invest in shares, I’m effectively losing money already” so decided to take the plunge but I set a strict limit on my potential exposure so that the core foundation of my personal finances was preserved.

I’d long followed easyJet and liked the company. I’d watched the SP for quite a while and seen it fall to a point where I thought it was illogical; once it went below 300 I took the first and significant step with some trepidation. At the same time I took a small amount in Wizz on the basis that the airline industry must recover. To my regret, I looked at IAG which was then sub 100 but didn’t want to put all my eggs into one sector so bottled it. I also took a punt on Whitbread thinking that as the economy was starting to recover post COVID business and leisure travel would be growth areas. Small other speculative investments followed (small hundreds, not thousands).

It’s been an interesting ride; my big holding is ESJ and my holding now is 4000 with an average, at last count, of 389. By others’ standards this is small fry but we are all equal; it’s just the extent of what we are prepared to invest versus personal wealth that’s the difference.

I’m sitting on a small paper loss on Whitbread and Wizz (could have got out and doubled my money on Wizz but got greedy). But at the end of the day I’m up way beyond inflation and what ISAs at the time could do.

I believe in EZJ and am as confident as I can be that it will provide good returns in due course.

My purpose in posting this is twofold;

First, to say to any new PIs to not worry about joining a BB. I’ve learned loads, listened to others’ views and formed my own. Any secondly to shout out to Prime, Stille, Xhita and Stupmy in particular for making me feel welcome and engaging with me. Sorry if I’ve missed others.

Southampton to Glasgow loadings last Sunday to tomorrow.

I’ll do a fuller update tomorrow, including a four week summary but for the moment loadings are holding up very well. With tomorrow still to go the load factor for the 7 days is 90.8% absolute and 96.9% when “normalised” to a A319 equivalent. There’s some interesting detail on the effect of using A320s rather than A319s on many days.

GLA and have good weekends.

Interim loadings update

Sunday to today. Total seats 498, total sold 470, load factor 94.4%. 18 seats sold over A319 capacity. A319 equivalent load factor 452 out of 468, 96.6%. On track to fly over 1000 passengers for the seven days Sunday to Saturday.

GLA

And it’s a good start to the week. Today is 174/186 and tomorrow is 153/156. 95.6% absolute, 99.0% 319 equivalent.

GLA for the coming week.

Weekly update on Southampton to Glasgow loadings Sunday 14th to Saturday 20th September.

3 days A320

4 days A319

Total seats = 1182

Sold = 1086

Load factor = 91.9%

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 45

A319 equivalent load factor 1041/1092 - 95.3%

As always, my figures may be a slight understatement as I take the figures typically an hour or so before booking closes or the previous evening for earlier morning departures.

One route, one direction only and no claim on my part that it is indicative of wider loadings in general. I will continue to monitor as I’m interested in how loadings reduce as we move into autumn/winter.

GLA

Yawn.!!! Fine at Gatwick today for me. Anything else Savage, to put EZJ down? High interest rates, low interest rates, inflation, deflation, high oil prices, low oil prices, … and so it goes on…. Why, simply why?!!!

Does this just apply to EZJ? All others immune are they?

So lower oil prices are BAD for airlines?!!!

Meanwhile a Southampton/Glasgow loadings update for last Sunday to tomorrow. Currently 91.9%, better than I expected. 4 flights are 319s, 3 are 320s. If they were all 319s the equivalent load factor would be 99.5% and 45 fewer seats would have been sold (320 sales over the 156 capacity of a 319).

One route, one direction only but nevertheless. EZJ are regularly flying 1000 + passengers a week Southampton to Glasgow. A lovely little earner!

Separately, would a certain person stop comparing aircraft numbers/passengers in 2025 with 2019; it’s irrelevant. Compare 2023/24 by all means but even then with caution!

@Prime. I’m signed up on the easyJet site to receive notifications. This is what I got:

easyJet plc

(the “Company”)

Director/PDMR shareholding

18 September 2025

The Company announces that it received notification on 17 September 2025 that Sue Clark, Non-Executive Director, acquired 7,680 ordinary shares of 27 2/7 pence each in the Company (“Shares”) at a price of £4.59 per share, in London.

In case of queries please contact:

Non Exec Director Sue Clark has bought 7680 shares at £4.59!

@Stille. Re stats, Southampton to Glasgow load factor last Sunday to this Saturday currently at 87.1% with 2 days to go. Holding up well.

@Prime. Been busy all day so haven’t been able to post. Given the drop the burning question is……. did the goldfish survive?

@Prime. I think gently poached in vodka with a sprinkling of your old tea leaves if you have any left.