Member Info for Thumper1127

I’d take a punt and say that undershooting by £50m would take the SP down to 400 or below and trigger takeover attempts. Overshoot by the same amount would see a race to/above 600. But I can’t see it either way.

@Prime. I’ll do my best but the 450 never arrived so I had to walk home. A route 380 passed; I tried to flag it down but to no avail. On my way home I passed a guy on a park bench asking me if I’d give him a tenner for an empty goldfish bowl and his remaining bicycle clip so he could buy some vodka. Any advice?

And in other news; a 15% uplift in PAT and an increase of dividend to 25% would roughly equate to a dividend of about 17 to 18p.

Have good weekends all.

@Pokerchips. Yes, I tend to agree, a cautious increase in dividend to send a good general signal but nothing to undermine the CAPEX program.

So will I and, I’m sure, will others. But it’s not in sight as far as I can see. I tried waiting for the “Sub 400 Soon” service a while back and that never turned up either.

A quick check suggests that in the mid 2010s it was effectively policy to pay 50% of PAT; I don’t think we will (or should) see that again.

Separately, I’m still waiting for the “450 by Friday”; I keep trying to get this “ Friday bus” but it doesn’t seem to turn up!

@Bobbins. I’d be surprised if the dividend was not raised to at least 25% of PAT or even 30%. I previously did a back-of-a- vape packet (got to keep up with the times!) calculation that came out at around 16p; I don’t have my calculations to hand unfortunately. I’ve previously postulated that an increase in dividends could stimulate interest in EZJ shares, and hence help the SP. Historically EZJ paid a high proportion of PAT as dividends, for which they were sometimes criticised. I do wonder whether the often cited high SP (£16/£17) was partly because of people looking for an income. My original move into shares just over 3 years ago was partly motivated by the fact that my savings were being eroded by inflation (over 10% at the time) but before interest rates started to rise. I thought if my savings were being eroded by 10% in any case why not take a limited punt to at least try to limit any erosion and hopefully make a gain. It has worked for me, I’m sat on an average SP of 391 and have benefited from two dividend payouts; these have been used to buy more EZJ shares.

I wouldn’t want excessive dividends to undermine the business/investment plans or a possible buy back; but a decent, sustainable dividend could be a good part of the mix. The business is fundamentally sound but the SP seems stuck in stasis.

I will wait with bated breath yet again for this 450. I don’t see that it will happen (looked for the pattern you mentioned, didn’t see it) but if it does it’s load up time for me.

A while ago I got an alert on an app of an EZJ declaring a 7700 general emergency It was from Paphos to Bristol. I tracked it as it made a rapid descent to Munich, passed over the runway and then climbed before doing a 180 degree turn and landed. It did seem very rapid. A quick search suggests it may have been smoke in the cabin. Hopefully all safe but wouldn’t be surprised if it was in the news tomorrow. Not that it should affect the SP of course, if this is true it must have been a textbook execution of standard procedure by a very competent and professional crew.

The Times and Sunday Times Travel Awards

I picked up this extract from The Metro;

Which other budget airlines were crowned?

easyJet and Jet2 were the other British airlines that earned the second and third ranking as quality short-haul airlines.

Despite the absence of a short-haul category in 2024, easyJet has maintained its stature, having won the editor’s choice award last year.

The airline has had a successful 12 months, from launching winter flights to Cape Verde to its new luxury holiday collection aimed to ‘redefine premium travel.’

The package features over 70 five-star hotels across Europe and North Africa available to book now, with departure dates from April 1, 2026.

easyJet’s chief executive, Garry Wilson, who called the launch a ‘new era,’ said it allows the airline to ‘reach new audiences,’ and strengthen its ‘position as a leader in both value and luxury travel.’

easyJet also won aviation company of the year at the Aviation Industry Awards UK 2025, partly due to its carbon emission reductions.

End of quote.

BA came top for short haul and there is a reference to Ryanair being “snubbed”.

Not ramping in any way but this is reassuring. What will November bring I wonder?

@Sollers. Yes I am invested here, my strategy is for another day. It’s a month since EZJ went sub 450, can’t see any pattern that suggests it will happen this Friday; but you may well be right. I’ve been waiting ages for the “sub 400 soon” by another poster to happen so I can load up. But it doesn’t seem to happen. Happy where I’m sat, average 391.

@Stille. I also noticed the wrong CEO reference and also the fleet reference; the latter is not “news”, it is well documented and most certainly not a distress indicator.

And any specific reason you think this will happen?

If it does that’s a buy signal me. Haven’t you predicted this a number of times?

In the UK and EU, if you’re denied boarding (bumped) because a flight is overbooked, the compensation is governed by UK261 (which mirrors the EU’s EC261 regulation, post-Brexit).

Here’s the breakdown of the statutory minimum compensation (as of 2025):

⸻

✈️ UK / EU Flight Compensation for Denied Boarding (Non-Voluntary Bumping)

Flight distance Compensation amount Notes

Up to 1,500 km £220 (€250) e.g. London → Amsterdam

1,500–3,500 km £350 (€400) e.g. Manchester → Athens

Over 3,500 km £520 (€600) e.g. London

⸻

🕓 Reduction if rerouted

If the airline gets you to your destination close to your original arrival time, they can halve the compensation:

Delay at arrival Compensation reduction

Within 2 hours (short-haul) 50% reduction

Within 3 hours (medium-haul) 50% reduction

Within 4 hours (long-haul) 50% reduction

⸻

🧾 Additional Rights

Regardless of compensation, you are also entitled to:

• A refund or rerouting at the earliest opportunity

• Meals, refreshments, and accommodation (if applicable)

• Transport to/from accommodation if overnight stay is needed

⸻

🧍 Voluntary vs. Involuntary

If you volunteer to give up your seat, the airline must negotiate compensation with you — but UK261 cash compensation rules don’t automatically apply (it’s whatever you agree).

From ChatGPT:

Airlines typically overbook flights by 0.5% to 5% of the total seat capacity, depending on the route, time of year, and historical no-show rates. Here’s a breakdown:

Typical Overbooking Rates

• Domestic short-haul flights: 1% to 3%

• Long-haul or international flights: 0.5% to 1.5%

• Business-heavy routes: Up to 5% (due to more last-minute cancellations and changes)

Influencing Factors

• Historical no-show data: Airlines use detailed data modeling to estimate no-shows on specific routes and days.

• Ticket type: Flexible/refundable ticket holders are more likely to cancel.

• Day of the week/season: Business days often have more cancellations, while holidays have fewer no-shows.

• Flight load factor: High-demand flights might be overbooked more conservatively to avoid compensation payouts.

Real-World Example

A 180-seat plane on a high-frequency business route might be overbooked by 5–10 seats if the airline expects 5–10 no-shows based on historical trends.

Airlines aim to maximize revenue while minimizing denied boardings. If too many passengers show up, they usually ask for volunteers first, offering compensation before involuntarily bumping anyone.

Oh, and I would assume that if they do have to bounce passengers they focus on those who opted for random seat allocation? Only if they have to bounce, I expect any initial of cash to not fly would be to everyone.

@La Marie

Morning La Marie

Yes, airlines do overbook to allow for no-shows and EZJ are no exception it would seem. Bearing in mind that unless a passenger opts for random seat selection they choose their specific seat. In the app, available seats are in white, black ones are already booked. In the app I’ve often seen a specific date as “sold out” and unable to be selected. But I’ve also seen dates where a fare is showing but when you proceed you find there are no selectable seats. It would seem this is exactly the scenario you mention; you can still pay the fare and obtain a random seat and will (hopefully!) be allocated the seat of a no show.

They can’t just keep selling seats of course, they need to set a limit they are as confident as they can be that won’t catch them out as there are financial implications if they have to “bounce” some passengers. I did find an article on the subject a while back, I’ll see if I can find it.

So, in respect of my loading figures, this supports my view that my figures must be an understatement; but I wouldn’t want to hazard a guess as to by how much, I prefer to use hard evidence.

Morning La Marie. No, I don’t know anyone in EZJ. I just go into the app to

Make a ghost booking and count the unsold seats, noting whether it is being operated by a 319 (156 seats) or a 320 (186) and deduct accordingly. It’s not particularly labour intensive but I do have a few reminder alarms on my phone so I don’t miss certain flights. Flights are normally closed for booking 2 hours before departure but some close earlier so I typically aim to do a final check about 3 hours before, or around 20:00 previous evening for the earlier morning flights. It is for this reason that my figures are undoubtedly a slight understatement as more bookings could still be made. In fact, on a few occasions I’ve been able to check later at night for the following day and have witnessed this. A few weeks ago my “normal” 20:00 check showed (IIRC) 13 seats available. But I happened to check a few hours later, expecting it to be the same, and only 5 were left. So I’m confident my figures are credible as they are at minimum correct or an understatement.

I started doing this as a matter of interest as Southampton is my local airport and I’m convinced, given the population within 90 minutes travel time, that there is further scope for growth. It is a good regional opportunity for EZJ IMO.

It’s a good start to the week; for yesterday and today, in both directions, there are 624 seats; 604 have been sold - 96.8%. Today was sold out last night!

Happy to answer any questions of course. As I’m always at pains to point out, this is a focussed interest of mine and totally separate to any views on the SP; I wouldn’t want to be “savaged” (!) and accused of ramping!!!

GLA for the coming week.

Found my small error;

A319 equivalent load factor 1032/1092 - 96.8% should have read;

A319 equivalent load factor 1057/1092 - 96.8%

I need to recheck these figures, there may be a small error. I’ve got to go out for a few hours, will review and correct if necessary later.