Member Info for Thumper1127

BBC comment on the news. No further details, let’s see what develops.

GLA

I asked ChatGPT the following question:

“What proportion of aviation fuel refined in the Uk covers the total requirement?”

It returned:

The short answer is: only a minority of the aviation fuel used in the UK is actually refined in the UK.

Current approximate proportion

Based on recent UK government energy supply data:

• UK refineries supply roughly about 25–30% of the UK’s jet fuel demand.

• The remaining ~70–75% is imported from refineries overseas (for example the Middle East, India, the Netherlands, Belgium, etc.). 

A detailed government report for 2024 found UK refineries met about 28.8% of jet fuel demand, with imports making up the rest. 

⸻

Why the UK imports so much aviation fuel

There are a few structural reasons:

1. Fewer refineries than in the past

Several UK refineries have closed or reduced output over the last couple of decades, which reduced domestic jet fuel production capacity. 

2. Huge aviation demand

The UK has one of the largest aviation markets in Europe (especially with airports like Heathrow), so jet fuel demand is very high compared with refining capacity.

3. Refineries produce mixed products

Refineries balance production between petrol, diesel, jet fuel, etc. UK refineries actually produce more petrol than the country needs, but not enough diesel and jet fuel — so those are imported instead. 

⸻

✅ Simple way to think about it:

If 10 aircraft depart UK airports burning fuel:

• About 3 aircraft’ worth of fuel likely came from UK refineries.

• About 7 aircraft’ worth came from imported fuel shipped into UK terminals and then piped to airports.

⸻

Interesting trend (this is changing)

Domestic production has actually been declining:

• UK jet fuel output has fallen significantly since before the pandemic and in some periods has covered closer to only ~20% of demand. 

That’s why the UK government is trying to expand Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production domestically over the next decade. 

⸻

If you want, I can also show which countries supply most of the imported jet fuel to the UK — the list is quite interesting and not always what people expect.

Here are the main countries that supply imported aviation fuel to the UK (based on the most recent government energy supply data).

Largest suppliers of jet fuel to the UK

According to the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero:

• Kuwait – the largest single supplier, about 38% of imported jet fuel (around 4.1 million tonnes).

• India – a major exporter to the UK from large refineries such as Jamnagar.

• United Arab Emirates – another major Gulf refining hub supplying jet fuel.

• Saudi Arabia – significant exports of aviation fuel

I did three small top ups for my LTH, two of which are now in positive territory. Marginally reduced my average, now sitting at 396.4. Confident long term.

GLA

The UK only refines about 29% of its aviation fuel as I understand it. The rest is imported (Norway I believe, amongst others).

@Balmus. The takeaway for me is:

“EasyJet holidays is set to welcome more than a quarter extra customers than last year's Easter weekend.”

As well as the immediate benefit, I think this is excellent going forward; for first timers hopefully this will result in repeat business where people realise how flexible the short break offering is. What is also of value is word of mouth. I was speaking with a lady in a local shop some weeks ago and she didn’t realise the options available (in this case from Southampton) and I understand she was actively looking for a short break for herself and her partner. The full holiday is no doubt the jewel but I remain convinced that the short break can really make the difference in the off peak for spring and autumn breaks.

Thanks all; mine has just landed.

GLA

Thanks both. IIRC last year mine was later than others. Sure it’ll arrive soon.

I thought the dividend was being paid today. Nothing in my Barclays yet. Anyone get theirs?

There’s too much to post on this subject as ChatGPT can take you very deep into the implications. Very interesting in many ways. For those that want to try, ask the question:

Are easyJet going to install new lighter and slimmer seats in their planes?

Go through the prompts for further questions and at some point ask:

Based on an A320 can you find what the actual weight saving is per Seat and per plane based on 186 seats.

That’s when it gets really interesting!

GLA

Apparently this is only for new deliveries from 2028, there is no retro-fitting. Impressive increase in legroom and a very significant weight reduction. I’ll see if I can post a bit of analysis on the effects on fuel burn a bit later.

@Lazy. I agree. I first got in back in September when it dropped below 300 (273 was my lowest I believe). Been building a position with circa 20 top ups since. Sitting on an average of 394 now so feel as confident as I can be that I will be back positive territory once the Iran situation cools. Never a guarantee of course but I’m certainly not panicking. I do feel for those have been hit hard.

GLA

@Lazy. If your horizon is medium to long term then it’s well worth it IMO. I’ve done a series of small top ups to my LTH on recent dips, having gone into negative territory for the first time. I’ll likely reinvest my dividend (paying out on Friday) if it remains low. GL.

EasyJet said the shift in bookings is likely temporary and linked to how long the geopolitical tension stays in the news cycle.

What the airline indicated about timing

• Management suggested these demand shifts after geopolitical events are usually short-term, often lasting weeks to a few months rather than an entire season.

• In previous situations (conflicts or security incidents affecting specific regions), customers typically rebook to alternative destinations quite quickly rather than cancelling travel altogether.

• If tensions ease or media coverage declines, bookings to affected areas like the Eastern Mediterranean tend to recover.

What could determine how long it lasts

easyJet indicated the duration will depend on a few things:

• Whether the conflict escalates or stabilises

• Ongoing travel advisories or airspace restrictions

• Fuel prices and airline capacity adjustments

• How quickly travellers regain confidence in those destinations

What airlines often do next

If the pattern continues, airlines such as easyJet may:

• Shift aircraft to Spain, Portugal, and Western Med routes where demand is stronger

• Reduce or discount seats on Turkey, Cyprus, Egypt routes to stimulate demand

• Adjust schedules later in the season if the trend persists

This type of demand shift is actually quite common in the airline industry — people still travel, but the map of where they go changes quickly. ✈️

If you want, I can also look at which UK departure airports (like Manchester, Gatwick, Bristol, etc.) are seeing the biggest changes in easyJet bookings — there are some hints emerging in industry reports.

Yes — easyJet have given some fairly specific examples of where demand is rising versus falling since the Iran-related tensions began. Here’s the breakdown from their latest comments and reporting.

Destinations seeing stronger bookings

According to easyJet and related reporting, customers are shifting toward Western and more established holiday areas:

• Spain (including Spanish islands like the Balearics and Canaries)

• Portugal

• Greece

• Malta

• Other Western Mediterranean destinations

These places are seeing increased demand as travellers choose locations further from the conflict zone and perceived as safer. 

Destinations where bookings have softened

easyJet said bookings have dropped or weakened for some Eastern Mediterranean routes closer to the tensions:

• Turkey

• Cyprus

• Egypt

Customers appear to be avoiding these areas due to proximity to the conflict and recent security concerns. 

Overall pattern easyJet described

The airline emphasised that travel demand hasn’t collapsed overall — it’s mostly a shift in where people are going rather than cancelling holidays completely. They’re monitoring the situation and may adjust capacity between destinations if the trend continues. 

If you’re interested, I can also explain how long easyJet thinks this shift in bookings might last — they actually compared it with past geopolitical events and gave a rough timeframe.

@Savage. Selective reporting on your part?… AI returns, with sources of course…

• easyJet reported that bookings fell for routes closer to the conflict zone, such as Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt. 

• At the same time, the airline said demand has been stronger for places further away, including Spain, Portugal and other Western Mediterranean destinations. 

• In effect, customers appear to be shifting where they travel rather than stopping travel altogether, moving toward destinations perceived as safer or unaffected. 

So the key point is:

• Not simply an overall increase everywhere — but a shift in bookings, with unaffected destinations seeing stronger demand compared with those nearer the Middle East. 

If you want, I can also summarise exactly which easyJet regions/routes are seeing the biggest changes (some reports mention specific destination trends).

Anyone notice the uncanny way IAG and EZJ SPs have virtually mirrored each other today? Means nothing of course but they’ve been so close.

AI research:

Yes — easyJet are adding several new routes from Newcastle International Airport, mainly as part of opening a new base there in 2026. ✈️

Most recently announced routes

• Rome (Fiumicino) – starts 30 March 2026

• Lisbon – starts 22 June 2026

Both are planned to run twice weekly (Mondays & Fridays). 

Other new routes launching from Newcastle in 2026

These were announced earlier as part of the base expansion:

• Antalya

• Corfu

• Dalaman

• Enfidha (Tunisia)

• Faro

• Malta

• Prague

• Reus

• Rhodes

• Sharm El Sheikh

• Nice

• Tenerife (also added later for summer 2026) 

Overall, easyJet says the new base (with three aircraft) is enabling a big expansion to around 20–22 routes from Newcastle in 2026, giving the airport many more leisure and city-break destinations. 

✅ Short answer: yes — and quite a lot of them, especially for summer 2026.

If you want, I can list the full current easyJet route network from Newcastle (including the older routes they already had like Amsterdam, Paris, Belfast etc.), which gives a clearer picture of what’s new vs existing.

Here’s a clear list of the current and newly announced easyJet routes from Newcastle International Airport so you can see the full network and what’s been added recently. ✈️

Existing / earlier easyJet routes from Newcastle

These were already operating before the big expansion:

• Amsterdam

• Paris (Charles de Gaulle)

• Alicante

• Malaga

• Palma de Mallorca

• Belfast

• Bristol

• Geneva (seasonal/earlier service noted in airline announcements) 

New routes being added with the new base (2026 expansion)

Most of these start from March–August 2026:

• Antalya

• Corfu

• Dalaman

• Enfidha (Tunisia)

• Faro

• Malta

• Prague

• Reus

• Rhodes

• Sharm El Sheikh

• Nice

• Tenerife

• Lisbon

• Rome (Fiumicino) 

📊 With these additions, easyJet says it will operate about 22 routes from Newcastle once the new base is fully up and running in 2026. 

In short:

• Previously: a small network (around 7–8 routes).

• After the expansion: a much larger mix of city-break and leisure destinations across Europe and North Africa.

If you want, I can also break down which routes start first (March/April 2026) vs later in the summer, which is useful if you’re tracking network growth or route launches.

Thanks Breakofdawn.

Just fleetingly heard on the radio that Trump has apparently said talks are in place with Iran for a permanent resolution (or similar). The sudden rise in SP may be in response? Anyone else heard similar?

@Scotty. I totally agree, too many variables to draw any conclusion; but no harm in a bit of What if scenario research.