Member Info for Thumper1127

@Grib. Not scary if you are medium to long term. For the first time I’m in slightly negative territory but have a positive outlook for my timescales. Some have said it is a basket case of a company; that’s not my view, the fundamentals are good IMO. Keeping an eye and may do a top up or two. GLA

@Prime. Perhaps you should revert to using your old bike. I can chip in for a new bicycle clip as I know you lost or sold one!

GL

Er…. Have I missed something? What has Capita PLC got anything to do with EZJ?

@Prime. Not too bad thanks, hope all is good with you. A small top up on Monday for my LTH at a fraction under 435. Still in very positive territory in EZJ. Also a modest top up in WIZZ to bring my average down to circa 1200.

GL

Very funny Sollers.

@DrMaze. I broadly agree with you. I have repeatedly said that the figures I post are SP agnostic and in my mind the SP is not reflective of the general health of the business. There seems to be a total disconnect. But with wider, non EZJ specific factors/risks at play I suppose the SP is bound to be hit.

The irony in respect of load/yield is that if EZJ reported materially lower figures there’s no doubt the SP would take a hit.

Looking forward to picking up some more at 460 on Friday when Sollers’ prediction is fulfilled; I’d love to know the analysis behind it.

@Prime. That’s what I find so frustrating, I’ve always stressed that my tracking is focussed and not indicative of the overall picture. But others either don’t read or are selective.

So you work for an airline and think that loads and yield have no bearing on an airline company? I’m sure Stelios would have snapped you up as a valued member of the top team. To think I’ve been wrong all this time. I’ll just validate your assertion by asking ChatGPT…

“Can you explain and contextually illustrate if/why load factors and yield are or are not critical for low cost or budget airlines.”

Not going to share the results of course for fear of being accused of ramping or being selective; but you and others are welcome to ask the same question and find out yourselves!

@Sollers. It’s not meant to, as I have repeatedly pointed out.

@James. I agree and have never said that in isolation the figures I post do indicate to overall health of the business and I have repeatedly made this clear. The context in which I posted my first figures was focused on the growth at my local airport, Southampton. But because I was posting specifically on one route (SOU/GLA) I expanded it to look at whole day rotation loadings (how efficiently aircraft were being utilised etc.) and also the holiday/short break offering. I don’t think there is anything wrong with posting the figures although sometimes I’m a bit reluctant in case others take it out of context. For balance, I’m not convinced that the Southend base is as successful as it was thought to be; but I could be wrong.

I think looking at pricing and load factors is a good “feel” for how things are going. Someone recently posted “what have load factors got to do with anything” (in fact it may have been you). See what happens to the SP if EZJ report load factors in the low 80s! Load factors are very important but sometimes sacrificing load for yield comes into the mix and I have posted on this very fact.

I always keep an eye each year on the profit per seat flown; that’s a good metric.

All the above is posted in good faith, everyone is entitled to their views.

@Carrington. Thanks for your comments. Thankfully I’m nicely up as I first jumped in when it fell below 300 in late 2022. Various tops up sees me sitting at an average of 392 or thereabouts. I’m keeping an eye for any drop to around 460; if it does, I’ll add. So far, all dividends I’ve received have been reinvested in EZJ but this year I’m thinking of having an EZJ short break, probably Faro. I’m still researching it but you can get a 2 or 3 day tourist rail pass for very little (25-30 euros). You can do some nice days out within 90 minutes travel time.

Yes, some good economic figures this week which should bode well moving forward. Likewise I see plenty of upside, especially with the short break/holidays. Interestingly, I was speaking with a young lady in a local shop I go to and we got on the subject of holidays and breaks. She never realised the short break options from Southampton (made the assumption that Gatwick was the nearest option). She promptly booked a break to Amsterdam and I believe she and her partner are also looking at Faro (note to EZJ - that’s sales commission of two cheese toasties please!). I think word of mouth has a part to play in the mix.

The app is good but I see scope for pushing the short break element more overtly. Currently there are two options; flights and holidays. I’d like to see a third option of short breaks with an “Inspire me” option where the user is taken through a number of questions and then presented with two or three suggestions. Tout the wares as such.

Mondays SOU to ALC currently loading 150/186, inbound flight 168/186. I’ll keep an eye on the final figures, that route does seem to get quite a number of short notice bookings.

Good weekends to all.

Flights to/from Southampton today

Rich pickings yet again:

AMS-SOU-ALC-SOU circuit

177-186-183-176 Total 722/744 97.0%

BCN-SOU-BCN

155-152 Total 307/312 98.4%

GLA-SOU-GLA

173/177 Total 350/372 94.1%

So total is 1379/1428 - 96.6%

Southampton seems to be a nice goldmine for EZJ, I’d be surprised if they did not add more routes in due course.

The Southampton/Faro route resumes in late April with three flights a week; Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday (changes to Monday, Thursday and Saturday in late June). Great opportunity for short breaks, especially Thursday to Monday/Tuesday and full holidays. If the Alicante is anything to go by I’d expect the route to be a money spinner.

Likewise twice weekly to Palma from April, Mondays and Thursdays, although the Thursdays outward is late evening. Great for a short break Monday to Thursday.

It’s not so long ago that BA stopped serving Faro and Palma from Southampton at weekends. I think EZJ will mop up here.

The SP is disappointing of course but I remain convinced that EZJ are doing the right things.

Usual caveats of course.

Where did you find that?

From Milan tomorrow:

Amsterdam £91

Barcelona Sold out

Berlin both sold out (today still available at 305 euros)

Brussels £82

Copenhagen Sold out

Frankfurt £71

Lisbon £124

Luxembourg £61

Paris 66 to 96 euros

Porto £200

Split £79

Vienna £140

@tjob81. You mentioned that it would be interesting to see how pricing is holding up on the new Rome and Milan operations. Here’s Rome tomorrow to non uk destinations:

Paris £106

Lyon £204

Nice Sold out today, tomorrow and Sunday, Saturday 225 euros

Frankfurt £105

Hamburg £94

Berlin £154

Zurich £109

Geneva £77

Brussels £156

Nantes £79

Can’t do loading data (haven’t the time) but based on price I’d say it is looking quite good.

I’ll have a look at Milan a bit later.

@Scotty. That’s an interesting point you make. I only got into shares, and EZJ in particular, in September 2022 precisely because inflation was so high that it was eroding my ISA savings (interest rate rises were lagging behind). So far, even at the current depressed S, I’m sitting on a capital gain of circa 22%. And the Divi, when I judge it again my outlay (rather than current SP) is a 3.4% return. The irony is that I was later able to get better ISA deals at 5.5% and 4.8% but in the scheme of things my venture into shares, and EZJ in particular, has been very fruitful.

I’m not worried about the drop per se, in for the LT. In fact, any drop to the 460 region will probably see me top up. EZJ is fundamentally solid with substantial growth potential IMO. I like the mix of a good core airline plus the overlay of Holidays. I’m convinced that the short/city break element, although with lower margins than holidays, gives great potential for increased earnings at the margins (Spring and Autumn breaks etc.). When I look at some of the 3, 4 and 5 day options they are just so suited to filling seats outside of the high season. Bristol to Alicante tomorrow, two flights loading 175 and 163 out of 186 (90.9%); not bad for late February!

GLA

If you intend holding, yes. Last year, IIRC, it quickly bounced back. In fact if it drops significantly as a result I’ll be seeing it as a buy opportunity for my LTH.

@Akhtar @tjob. Glad you find it useful, thanks for your support. I do find it rather perplexing that others can be so dismissive. Shock horror that an EZJ investor should take an interest in the operations/load/yield of the business he’s invested in as well as looking at the success (or otherwise) of the short break and holiday business. And to have the temerity to share the information with other investors, whilst maintaining an SP agnostic stance (i.e. not ramping). It’s simply not the sort of civilised behaviour you’d expect on a shares BB!

I did actually do my first all day rotation loading check on Sunday but the results were so astounding that I decided not to post it for fear of being seen as being selective given that it was the half term weekend. But in summary, it was an 8 flight rotation (including GLA-SOU-GLA) of a 320 (186 seats) giving a total of 1488 seats. 3 legs sold out, 4 legs <9 seats unsold and the lowest leg had 15 seats left. It ended up at an incredible 1454/1488, 97.7%. One of my angles is how the move to A320s instead of A319s has the potential to add capacity/revenue at marginal cost. Sunday saw 206 sales over and above 319 capacity. Those would have been very profitable!

Re Rome and Milan, an interesting point. In due course I’ll take a few dip samples to get the feel for how they are doing.

Re social media, I haven’t really got the appetite (or bandwidth) for it. But an interesting idea.

I’d better not mention that the two SOU - ALC flights this week (Monday and Friday) both sold out (186/186). In fact the scores on the doors for the first part of the day rotation currently stand at:

AMS - SOU 166/186

SOU - ALC 186/186

ALC - SOU 181/186

SOU - AMS 133/186

= 89.5%

Not bad for February! I expect the SOU - AMS will increase quite a bit, often seems to load up in the last 24 hours as people look for a weekend break. Oops, I mentioned it!

GLA

IAG, Jet2, Wizz and RYN all took a dip at around the same time so I don’t think it’s Divi related.

@Dinoken. Having checked I see your point and also that of @Stille re the early 0700 departure (overnight stay evening before the only viable option). I can only assume that during the summer EZJ believe that better use can be made of resources.