Member Info for Thumper1127

@Stille. It goes ex dividend on 19th so need to be holding on 18th to qualify. Payment is 27th March.

Interesting re CPH. Never been but got it in my sights. Noted re Sweden, thanks. A bit of a tour by train could be on the agenda.

Weekly update on Southampton/Glasgow loadings Sunday 8th to Saturday 14th February

Both directions

6 flights A320

6 flights A319

Total seats = 2052

Sold = 1812

Load factor = 88.3%

Average PAX per flight = 151

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 69

A319 equivalent load factor 1743/1872 = 93.1%

Observations

Virtually exactly the same sold as last week (1812 vs 1813) but load factors slightly lower due to one more day being a 320.

Of the 6 flights operated with 320s 5 had loadings over 156, yielding the 69 sales over and above 319 capacity.

In a previous post last week I mentioned that Thursday’s SOU to GLA was priced at £187 with still 52 seats free. In the end it loaded 173/186 so that’s at least 39 seats at £187 = £7,293. EZJ clearly know when they can maximise yield no doubt at the expense of load factor; that’s the art in this business.

Separately I’m doing a little exercise in looking at whole day rotation load factors. My motivation is twofold. First because, as happened this week, a single 320 flight did not load in excess of a 319. When this happens I often wonder whether the same aircraft loads over 156 on other legs that day to justify the use of a 320 so I want to test some examples. The second reason is to try to dispel any idea that in tracking a single route (SOU/GLA) I’m taking a blinkered view; by looking at whole day rotation loadings I’m hopeful I can demonstrate a wider picture of good asset utilisation of assets and the benefits of the A319 replacement program.

No cheese toastie stats I’m afraid!

GLA

I said I’d post about the two SOU - Geneva and single Paris flights yesterday:

Geneva. Both loaded 181/186 (I did double check in case I’d counted a single flight twice)

The Paris was 180/186

So overall 97.1%

Today’s Geneva currently loading 175/186.

The rich pickings continue.

@Dinoken. From where? I see 7 day a week LGW and MAN. I can see other routes are not 7 days a week. EZJ seem to have a good presence in Copenhagen. Interesting in the route you are referring to.

No I don’t, although previous transport sector experience (not aviation) has some similarities. I’m a humble small time EZJ investor with a keen interest in EZJ, its origins and evolution and the plans going forward. Given my interest in regional expansion and the fact that Southampton is my local airport, the stars align as it were for me to do some monitoring. All SP agnostic but not irrelevant to the health of their operations.

@Bolland. Quite easy but a bit labour intensive to a degree. I just go on the app to make a booking and see the seats available. My figures will always be a slight under report as I can’t always do it close enough to the booking closing. From experience I know there can be a good few bookings in the last hour. This is particularly true of early flights (0730 GLA-SOU) where typically I cut off circa 20:00 previous night.

@Prime (sorry, Dad). One for you https://youtu.be/zGjQqEG-FdQ?feature=shared

@Solosphere. It hadn’t dawned on me until after I posted about today’s flights out of Southampton that it’s half term next week. Add in Valentine’s Day (short breaks to Alicante, Paris and Amsterdam etc) and it is the perfect combination for some incredible loadings.

Thanks for the link, a good article.

Correction. The Barcelona is 155/156, not 185/186. Sorry!

Setting aside my normal Southampton/Glasgow tracking I also occasionally monitor the weekend flights to non uk destinations. Today’s are stunning:

Alicante 186/186

Amsterdam 184/186

Barcelona 185/186

So 555/558 - 99.5%

I’m particularly surprised at the Barcelona.

I will post about the two Geneva flights and the Paris tomorrow but at the moment they are looking good.

Not that load factors or regional success have any bearing on the picture according to some!

GLA

On buy back, the company has the resolution to do it but do they have to declare beforehand the intention to actually do so?

I’ve mentioned my view that the short break offering has the potential to bring in good business at the margins during the quieter months. Well, if Southampton to Alicante is anything to go by it’s a winner. Who would have thought that in mid February you could sell 186/186 seats as is happening tomorrow?!! There were 22 seats available yesterday, all gone today. I’m convinced in this particular case it is the weekend break that is proving popular; out Friday morning return Monday lunchtime. Nice!

For those interested, my mention of EZJ anticipating “guaranteed” demand and pricing accordingly (with potentially a lower load factor as a result) seems to be happening again. The SOU-GLA for this Thursday is currently priced at a minimum of £187 and yet there are still 52/186 seats to sell. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out.

Should have read “third ever employee”.

@RichEO. Thanks for that (and others who have supported me). Glad to hear your news on BRS -GLA which is one of the routes I dip sample at times. In fact at least one of the SOA - GLA daily diagrams used to also do GLA - SOU - GLA and it was interesting to look at the loadings. In fact, IIRC there was one day when a 320 worked GLA - SOU - GLA and didn’t load much above 319 capacity but when you looked at other legs that day it was a different matter and a lot more seats were sold than if it were a 319 all day. In fact I’m doing a bit of prep work for a one-off exercise of the whole day cycle loadings of the GLA - SOU - GLA flights for a week to see the overall picture.

I am impressed by two particular things EZJ do on the GLA-SOU-GLA route (and no doubt others). First, it is not uncommon to see a 319 replaced by a 320 at a few days notice and for it to load above 319 capacity, often in both directions; anticipating and satisfying demand. The second is the fact that they can seem to anticipate virtually “guaranteed” demand and price up significantly at the expense of load. You may have picked up on a few posts that I’ve done in the past on this where they’ve sold 30 to 40 seats at circa £400; they still had 10 unsold seats but the yield, Profit Per Seat Flown, must have been eye watering!

I find the whole subject of load/fare/yield fascinating. I’ve always acknowledged that my postings don’t affect the SP in any way. But for people to dismiss the subject with comments (not today specifically) along the lines of “what have load factors got to do with anything?” seems remarkable; by all means say “far much detail for me…” but to dismiss the subject entirely seems to be gravely naive.

If on your travels you want a book to read get yourself a copy of easyJet Rising by Tony Anderson (their ever employee and Marketing Director). It’s an easy read, informative and funny. It covers from start up to flotation. Well worth it.

The app was ok for me until about 20 mins ago but not working now.

@Bolland. Well that would be ridiculous; cheese toasties perhaps….

@ Bolland. You are entitled to your view of course but before posting you perhaps didn’t know the context. I suggest that you look at my posting on 10 January to get perspective. Fully agree that a single route does not indicate the health or otherwise of the business and I’ve repeatedly made that point as well as emphasising that any posting on the subject is SP agnostic.

Sent with the best of intentions and with no ill will.

Weekly update on Southampton/Glasgow loadings Sunday 1st Saturday 7th February

Both directions

4 flights A320

8 flights A319

Total seats = 1992

Sold = 1813

Load factor = 91.0%

Average PAX per flight = 151

Seats sold over and above A319 capacity = 34

A319 equivalent load factor 1779/1872 = 95.0%

Observations

The first week of 6 rather than 4 day operation so a lot more seats. Very healthy load factors, I’d expected the absolute load factor to drop below 90%. 2 flights were sold out, 3 within a whisker of being so. The last 3 Sundays have loaded 99.4, 99.0 and 100% based on a 319 loading. On the weekend when it was a 320 it loaded 27 in excess of a 319; I expect EZJ will be looking to make Sundays 320s wherever possible (depending on the other flights it makes that day). Tomorrow’s GLA to SOU was already sold out at 09:00 this morning.

Likewise Thursdays and Fridays look ripe for 320 operation (Thursday this week was and was where the additional 34 sales came from).

This route is a consistent solid rock for EZJ revenue. One more week of 6 day operation before it increases to 7 day until the end of April.

Hope all have good weekends.

I assume EZJ monitor boards such as this. If so, some feedback about a friend of mine who flew out SOU to ALC on Monday and returned today.

On Monday the flight out was delayed as the inbound from AMS had a bird strike on approach to SOU. A replacement aircraft flew from LGW to SOU to fill in. My friend says they were kept well informed, told what had happened and the fact that a replacement aircraft was arranged with an approximate delay expectation. The flight left about 2.5 hours or so late. My friend described it as “frustrating but understandable and well managed”.

Return today was trouble free and early arriving back in SOU. I met him at the airport and no sooner had we got to a local coffee shop in Eastleigh he received an email from EZJ asking for feedback on the flight he had just made. His comment to me was pretty much verbatim “I really like EZJ, so much better than Ryanair. But they didn’t email me asking for feedback on the delayed outbound flight so why should i respond about the return flight?” I understand he will not reply which is a pity as had EZJ asked about both flights they would have got a very favourable response for both as he was impressed with how the outward flight delay was handled.

I’d like to think this is an error or oversight by EZJ. But if it is policy then EZJ needs to rethink. They’ve missed out on very favourable feedback. Never be selective about eliciting feedback, you need the whole warts and all for it to be of any value.

Have good weekends all and next week can we pretty much keep it to EZJ and not venture into personal spats over politics.