Member Info for Thumper1127

@LongInvestor. A very good synopsis of the situation, thanks!

Have good weekends all, weather looks to good here down on the south coast.

@badjob. You make a good point re Italy. I posted previously that the headline loss for H1 included £60m one off costs (Italy start up and legal provision) which are not embedded recurring costs. Outside of that, the loss was indeed up but the headline figures overstate the true situation. I get fed up with the figure being spouted without qualification.

Re Italy, I did some dip sampling of load factors a while back to get a feel for it. There was nothing of concern, may be time for me to revisit. Loads factors are not everything of course (nor is volume which others keep spouting) but they are a good general indicator. I’ll make time to have a poke around.

@Crossley. Thanks for that. I can’t recall how I arrived at 60% but it was probably similar to you. If you divide 800 by .6 you get 1333, virtually spot on your figure! So there must have been some method in my madness!!!

Actually I think my calculation may be wrong, I think it may be more complicated that that.

I’d have to revisit but I did a calculation a while back whereby if you take the current SP and divide it by 60% you get the pre-RI SP equivalent.

Exactly what I started singing in my head. Got an ear worm now! It was also the name of Rigsby’s cat in Rising Damp.

Re £8, that’s what I posted a few days ago, the point at which my head will start to overtake my heart. If this all goes away and there is no bid it will of course drop but I don’t think as low as it was; if anything this has exposed what the true value is. I wouldn’t see it going below 400 and when the ME calms I think would be back in the 500s in due course. I was content to sit it out, it’s a good business and I’ve always been a LTH.

GLA

Infinity welcomes careful drivers!

@Prime. Sorry I didn’t reply the other week, meant to but got distracted. Hope all is well with you. Messers Beam and Daniels send their best wishes!

Yes, I was thinking of some hybrid deal of sorts but don’t have the depth of knowledge to work out how it could work. Pure speculation on my part, just thought I’d throw it out there.

There was mention earlier of Wizz. A few things I’ve been thinking about for a week or so is what a combined operation would look like. A few observations but with no research as to whether it would be possible/practical.

I am not advocating it, just pondering it…

Wizz wanted easyJet

They both use Airbus; EZJ predominately A320s with a small number of 321s. Their 319s are already on a replacement path. Wizz are virtually entirely 321s. The main difference is engines, with Wizz using Pratt and Witney.

EZJ are heavily weighted to aircraft ownership (82% I believe). Wizz are all, or virtually all leased (although they have purchased and then done sale and leaseback).

Castlelake own and lease aircraft.

EZJ have an established supply order for new aircraft.

Castlelake needs a European operator to meet regularity requirements.

EZJ and Wizz have minimal city pair to city pair duplicate routes, even fewer airport to airport route duplication.

The combined route map would be very extensive.

EZJ have an established and growing Holiday business Wizz could expand.

A takeover/merger ends up with Wizz getting what they wanted in terms of network, Castlelake get the EZJ aircraft and lease them back to the new Wizz operation, thus securing forward leasing revenues.

There are probably 101 reasons why this doesn’t stack up and minds much better than mine could probably provide them.

It’s just a thought and, as I say, I’m certainly not advocating it.

I expect others will post why this doesn’t make sense and I have no issue with that; it’s just me pondering it, looking at possible outcomes.

Nice finish to the day, GLA.

Which wife to re-buy? Sale and leaseback perhaps? (Sorry if that offends anyone, couldn’t resist!). BTW, I assume you mean 359, not 305 or is there something we’ve all missed?

I like this 485- 487 area. A significant proportion of my holding moves into positive territory!

GLA

I’m trying to give up talking to myself. I can only deal with one conversation at a time and normally there are two already going on in my head!

Continued…

An interesting way to look at it is:

* 2019: 91.5% full → ~£4.07 profit per seat offered.

* 2025: 89.8% full → ~£6.39 profit per seat offered.

So easyJet was making about 57% more nominal profit per seat while filling a slightly smaller proportion of those seats.

@Savage_KeyboardR

I come in peace, not in confrontation. You make some interesting points, some I’d need to consider in more detail, others I simply think are a bit off-piste as it were. But at least you are putting some arguments down rather than your previous habit of seemingly hit-and-run posts along the lines of “xxxp soon, DYOR” which I think people, well me at least, found so infuriating. Believe me if you post something I agree with I will endeavour to say so. But I want to pick up with you again (we’ve had this exchange before) on your apparent fixation with 2019 volumes…

Volumes are a factor but only one (as is my tracking of load factors, the reason for which I will make fully transparent). Volume and load must be viewed in the overall picture BUT along with the cost/fares/yield. IMO these are best indicators and be looked at/consolidated to look at the outcomes. One of the best metrics, IMO, is profit per seat flown as that takes into account the balance between capacity, load, fares and ultimately yield; it is the output of all the factors and use that (which ironically puts my load factor work into perspective). Profit Per Seat Flown (PPSF):

(This may have to spill into multiple posts):

Financial year Profit before tax Seats flown Profit per seat

FY2019 £430m ~105 million seats £4.10 per seat

FY2025 £665m ~104 million seats £6.39 per seat

To make the comparison fair, we can restate the 2019 figure in 2025 pounds. UK inflation between 2019 and 2025 was about 28.5% cumulatively.

So:

* 2019 profit per seat = £4.10

* Inflation-adjusted to 2025 money = £5.27 per seat (£4.10 × 1.285)

Comparison in 2025 pounds

Measure Profit per seat

FY2019 (inflation-adjusted to 2025 £) £5.27

FY2025 £6.39

Difference: about £1.12 more profit per seat in FY2025 than in FY2019, after adjusting for inflation. That’s roughly a 21% real increase in profit per seat.

So despite higher costs and inflation since the pandemic, easyJet’s most recent full financial year generated around one-fifth more profit per seat in real terms than its last pre-COVID year.

Yes. The load factor was actually slightly lower in FY2025 than in FY2019, even though profit per seat was substantially higher.

Financial year Passengers Seats flown Load factor

FY2019 96.1 million 105.0 million 91.5%

FY2025 93.4 million 104.0 million 89.8%

What changed?

* Load factor fell from 91.5% to 89.8% (-1.7 percentage points).

* Yet profit before tax per seat rose from about £4.07 in FY2019 to £6.39 in FY2025.

* After adjusting FY2019 for inflation, profit per seat still increased from roughly £5.27 to £6.39, a real increase of about 21%.

This tells us that easyJet’s improved profitability was not driven by fuller aircraft. Instead, it came largely from:

* Much higher revenue per seat (fares and ancillaries).

* Growth of the holidays business.

* Longer average stage lengths, which improve aircraft economics.

* Better cost control

@Savage_KeyboardR.

“I cant see LTH's or the board agreeing to a sale at a time when there is underlying value with EZJ but its near to impossible to correctly price due to the market volatility“

So there is underlying value then! So why do you think a range of 310 to 320?

Separately, and positively, thanks for your feedback about dealing fees earlier. We disagree on many things but I appreciate your response.

Yes, saw it, was going to post. Trump has bitten off more than he thought (I don’t do politics but I think he’s backed himself into a corner). Oil price up presumably tomorrow?

@PaniV2. Glad you’ve read it!

@PaniV2. I share your sentiments to a large degree. I was always in this for the long term as someone who believes in EZJ. If a bid goes ahead and succeeds and I make good money then so be it but it would be tinged with a bit of sadness if it is broken up and the brand/model disappeared. If you are interested in the origins and journey of EZJ right up to flotation get yourself a copy of easyJet Rising by Tony Anderson. He was the first ever Marketing Director (and third employee) so was in it efffectively from the start before their first ever flight. It’s an easy read (no pun intended), very informative and downright hilarious in parts. @Stille could testify likewise I believe.

GLA

@Stille. Agreed. And let’s not forget that KLM have an historical score to settle with EZJ; time for another dip into the good book tonight for a chuckle I think!