Member Info for Thumper1127

There is one particularly interesting connection that has emerged between Peter Bellew and the potential Castlelake/easyJet situation.

Who is Peter Bellew?

Peter Bellew is a well-known airline executive with senior operational roles at:

* Ryanair (Chief Operating Officer)

* easyJet (Chief Operating Officer from late 2019 until July 2022)

* Malaysia Airlines (CEO)

* Earlier roles at Aer Lingus and other aviation businesses.

He is regarded as an airline operator rather than a finance or private-equity specialist.

The most significant current link

A disclosure filed under UK takeover rules last week revealed that Peter Bellew is listed as a person acting in concert with Castlelake in relation to the possible easyJet offer. The filing disclosed that Bellew personally holds easyJet shares and a small derivative position.

This is not a casual connection.

Under the UK Takeover Code, “persons acting in concert” are individuals or entities cooperating with a potential bidder regarding an acquisition. The fact that Bellew appears in Castlelake’s formal disclosure suggests some level of involvement or alignment with Castlelake’s bid effort.

Why might Castlelake want Bellew involved?

If Castlelake were considering a takeover of easyJet, Bellew would bring several things:

1. Deep knowledge of easyJet

* Former COO.

* Familiar with fleet planning, operations, labour relations and airport slot strategy.

* Knows the management structure and operational strengths/weaknesses.

2. Low-cost airline expertise

* Senior experience at both easyJet and Ryanair.

* Understanding of how margins and productivity could potentially be improved.

3. Credibility with aviation investors

* Private-equity firms frequently use industry specialists as advisers or operating partners during acquisitions.

* Bellew’s background would fit that model.

Is there evidence he is leading the bid?

I have found no public evidence that Bellew is financing the bid, controlling Castlelake, or acting as the principal architect of the proposal.

Current public reporting identifies Castlelake as the bidder and notes that it has until 26 June to either make a formal offer or walk away.

The disclosure only proves that Bellew is connected closely enough to be treated as a concert party. It does not specify his exact role.

A possible interpretation

One plausible interpretation is:

* Castlelake has identified easyJet as undervalued.

* It has assembled aviation expertise around the potential transaction.

* Bellew, as a former easyJet COO, may be providing operational insight, due diligence support, strategic advice, or could potentially have a future management role if a transaction succeeded.

That would be consistent with how private-equity-backed airline acquisitions are often structured, although there is currently no public confirmation that this is his role.

What I find most noteworthy

Be

@smiffyBlok85. What a find!!! Far too much for me to put into a single post but others may benefit from putting the following question to ChatGPT:

Can you find and details on Peter Bellew who may be involved with airlines, easyJet, finance etc which could have a connection with the potential Castlake bid for easyJet

Re various mentions of late bookings, I did a bit of work a few weeks ago on how a full day aircraft rotation (6 flights, 4 short haul, 2 medium) loaded/were priced as it got nearer to the day. I think I started 6 or 7 days out right up to the day. I’ll see if I can dig it out. It has no bearing on the SP of course, it’s more for me to get an understanding.

As a one off, I’m tracking the loadings for SOU to ALC for this Thursday and Sunday. Currently 33 and 41 seats still available. I’ll post the results. I’ve no point to prove here, just want to get a feel for how late they book as my perception is that they can sell quite fast in the few days before which I would assume is heavily short break driven.

I don’t trade, I’m LTH.

Savage. So if all this comes to pass, will it ONLY affect EZJ? As your entry point target is 310 to 320 I don’t see you being a shareholder any time soon; if you do something has clearly gone wrong with the market, the aircraft assets far surpass that pricing.

Savage. I agree that the BB is for exchanging views and you are entitled to them whether I agree with them or not. But your more recent post is about possible future events; your earlier one was that was (not WILL be) demand destruction. It’s not the first time you’ve said this and I’ve previously asked you to evidence it but you don’t. I’m certainly not seeing it and yes, there will be headwinds and may come to pass; but I’m not detecting it in any meaningful way. You then said that passengers will resist because of LOWER oil prices. I simply can’t understand your thinking here. High oil prices are bad for airlines, lower ones better. What’s not to like about lower oil prices? As for exorbitant prices, please evidence it. It’s a competitive market out there, prices will find their level.

I suggest you use fewer darts but deploy them with a greater degree of accuracy.

@Robbo24. Good point on the short breaks. I’ve certainly detected evidence of a sort of people booking at short notice and it would appear that it is precisely that. And I can understand it, the options are so varied - “it’s months until our main holiday, shall we get away for a few days” sort of thing. I posted a while back how surprised I was in November through to March at some of the loadings on routes providing short breaks. Perhaps that partly accounted for the 2% increase in load factor for H1 and a 22% increase in holiday customers. I may even do Southampton to Alicante just to get away for a few days.

Evidence it please, especially of the “outrageous price tags”. And as for consumers will “dig in” because of lower oil prices???? Whoever took that into account when booking a holiday?! I may be in Gatwick later this week, I may ask a few passengers. Come on Savage, happy to engage with you but you are reverting to bloke who runs into a pub, throws two fistfuls of darts at the board hoping that one hits it. EVIDENCE!!!!

Morning @Savage_KeyboardR. You’ve used that phrase before - Demand destruction. Please provide your evidence, specifically in respect of EZJ; no car dealer margins and general statements etc. Something we can get our teeth into and consider. Did you not read the H1 load factor (up 2%), Holiday customers up 22%. Did you not see the figures I posted yesterday re Rome (admittedly it’s a snapshot). Please don’t do your “volumes have not returned to 2019 levels” argument without bringing other factors into play, it’s irrelevant on its own; it’s a bit like say that one side of a scalene triangle used to be 104 CM long, now it’s only 103. Without the respective lengths of the other two sides (the area of the triangle) it means nothing.

Evidence please, evidence.

Let’s hope it holds.

Just hearing.

I could only dream of holdings like that (and others posted)! In the scheme of things I’m just humble tea boy in the background!

@SmiffyBlok85. Thanks for that, a very reassuring analysis and adds to some really good exchanges of views/observations of late without the tension and angst some postings seem to engender.

Irrespective of the potential bid I’ve had to remind myself of the reason I originally got into EZJ. Apart from a bit of personal affinity, my investment was based on what I saw, and still see, as a good business model underpinned by pretty undeniable figures. The CEO could be a bit more overt and dynamic but it would seem he’s got the fundamentals right after good leadership preceding him.

I’ve been viewing this whole business (potential bid, ME outfall etc.) with an eye on the other end; if a bid is not made, or is made and is rejected (with no others players coming into the picture) then we are left IMO with a fundamentally sound business, well financed and with good growth potential. That’s what I invested in. Should a bid be made I can’t see the Board recommending anything below £8. I’d still probably vote against.

Separately, the mood music on the ME situation seems to be the best in a while. No expectation at all, but this will all be over in due course. I even get the impression that Putin and Trump are looking for a “graceful” exit from their respective engagements without losing face. Sanity may, just may, prevail. Here hoping for humanity’s sake, irrespective of EZJ and others.

I’m Wizz (small holding) and EZJ (main). At the time I was going to do IAG (sub 100 IIRC) but thought 2 airlines was enough. Missed out there!

A quick look ok at the new Milan base for today shows various sold out and encouraging fares for the rest. No time to do load factors, I may do that for next Sunday but on the face of it, looking good.

Bares should have read bases.

I do hope that EZJ make a positive mention of how the new Italian bases are doing in the next trading update “following our start up costs, fully accounted for in H1, we are pleased to announce that…..” sort of thing. Don’t hide good news!

Morning @LongInvestor in particular, et al.

There have been a few mentions of Italy now EZJ have set up new bases in Rome and Milan. H1 losses were inflated by start up costs (non recurring) which helped create the impression that not all was well. EZJ made passing mention that the bares are maturing; but no with express details.

Well, it is a single day only (today) and I’ve looked at all available departures from Rome. Accepting that Sunday is a busy travel day, if the following are generally indicative of a measure of success, then let’s have more of it. Bearing in mind my figures were all taken by 1130 BST, and all departures are late afternoon and into the evening, the loadings will be higher. Take a look at these figures, I couldn’t believe it!!!

All flights formed of an A320 with 186 seats. For those that are sold out I obviously have no visibility of the final lowest fare; for those that still have seats, I give the lowest fare available; all in Euros:

Destination/sold/lowest fare.

Basel 176, 202

Berlin 172, 215

Birmingham(*) 178, 148

Bristol 183, 229

Brussels 186, ?

Frankfurt 174, 124

Geneva 174, 196

Gatwick 186, ?

Gatwick 185, 240

Lyon 177, 151

Manchester 186, ?

Munich 186, ?

Nice 186, ?

Paris 186, 222 (overbooking, fare still visible)

Paris 180, 157

Zurich 180, 171

Total seats 2976

Seats sold 2895

Load factor 97.3%

As I say, a single busy travel day. But nonetheless!

(*). I marked Birmingham out as the route was only very recently introduced and someone posted some weeks ago that they travelled on the route and their flight was lightly loaded and I did say I’d look at it.

EZJ may well have pulled a master stroke off here.

I’ll do a similarly exercise for Milan at some stage (not today).

Hope you enjoyed the read!

GLA for the upcoming week.

@smiffyBlok85. That’s an offer we shouldn’t turn down. Not sure if these are appropriate but here goes, pretty random;

London to:

Zurich

Paris

Copenhagen

Antalya

Belfast to:

Faro

Rovanemi

Marrakech

Zurich to:

Alicante

Rome

Marrakesh

Rome to;

Newcastle

Munich

Morning @LongInvestor. Well that’s an angle I, and I expect many others, weren’t aware of! Thanks.

I’m going to look at the new Italian bases over the weekend. I’ve just done my Saturday morning dip sample of about a dozen “Holiday” departures this weekend from uk regional airports; all looking good, very good loadings overall, some sold out. Not scientific enough (sample too small) but it a bit of “stick your head out of the window and see if it’s raining, overcast or sunny”; looks pretty sunny to

me!

GLA

@JohnBriggs. I’m sorry but I think that is totally unfair. He (I’m assuming) just did a round up of different takes/statements made in the market. There was not recommendation, push back or promotion of any point. The only bit I would challenge (not about the posting made) was the reported higher H1 loss which was distorted by the in-H1 one off costs of start up costs for Italy and legal provision; but it is what is being reported repeatedly; he simply listed what has been out there into a summary. So I think your posting is a bit over the top.

Nothing personal here, I don’t know you, but having been shot down myself for simply reporting facts (in this case public statements put into a summary) can I ask that you reflect on your posting? I’m happy to engage with and consider others’ opinions, and modify my own as a result , but just slating someone for posting a synopsis of what is already out there is a bit wide of the mark and not really civilised behaviour.

No angst with you at all, but please reflect.