Member Info for surprised

Harbour Energy, Mubadala Sign Deals for Central Andaman Block Off Indonesia

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1863873276218396996

Dec 3 (Reuters) - Indonesia has signed a contract with Harbour Energy and Mubadala Energy for the development of a Central Andaman oil and gas block, the energy ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. Central Andaman is located offshore of northern Sumatra island. The block has estimated resources of 100 million barrels of oil and 500 billion cubic feet gas, according to energy ministry data.

This will add to company production, present new drilling opportunities in the coming years, and help with oil sales via the Iquitos refinery. PetroTal estimates that the field holds 4.2mmbbl of remaining 2P reserves, and field facilities can take up to 5.5mbbl/d, giving scope for new drilling and higher production rates going forward under PetroTal’s operatorship

On this basis the Block 131 acquisition looks good value, in our view.

This is a nice bolt-on acquisition for PetroTal, diversifying the company’s producing assets; adding reserves, production, and forward development drilling opportunities; and providing synergies with Bretana on crude exports

PetroTal offers investors regular drilling news flow, strong and growing production based on a material asset, significant cash flows underpinned by the variety of export routes, an increasingly established dividend, and a strong balance sheet. We have a positive outlook for the shares, and value them in line with our 97p total risked NAV

TTF Gas 49.01 +2.29%

UK Gas 122.0547 +2.83%

Gas for next summer is being priced at a record premium to the following winter. The gap reflects expectation that Europe will draw heavily on its gas storage and will then have a hard time restocking in the summer months.'

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1863149023764328522

Free cash flow forecast - ''Even assuming FY25 capex in line with FY24 (US$270 mm), this would lead to US$230 mm free cash flow. This leaves ample running room to fund a dividend at current levels (~US$115 mm) and/or make acquisitions. The new fiscal terms stability in the UK has generated multiple opportunities for the company.

Serica continues to be committed to significant dividend returns. All else being equal, we continue to forecast >16%

dividend yield for 2024''

Hope that helps

PSN 1700 down to 1268

TW 166 down to 130

VTY 1300 down to 650

''we forecast that Serica could generate ~US$500 mm of operating cashflow (post tax and interest) next year. Even assuming FY25 capex in line with FY24 (US$270 mm), this would lead to US$230 mm free cash flow'

FTSE all share index - more stocks down than up, (advancers 123- Decliners 350) retail & hospitality particularly hard hit, builders struggling and construction #SFR down -35% today....sustainable free cash flow getting harder to maintain/forecast for many stocks.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1861353200932073882

Compressor at Triton back on line

• The first compressor at Triton has been repaired and the platform is expected to be back online this week. This represents a few weeks’ delay but the restart will boost production materially. • With the recent addition of the B6 well (>5 mboe/d net), total production was already over 50 mboe/d on 2 October. Since then, the Gannet GE05 well has been tied-in and the EC1 well (Guillemot NW field) has reached TD (first production in 1Q25). Overall, we forecast that Serica could produce ~48 mboe/d in 1Q25 .

• The second compressor at Triton continues to be expected to be repaired in 1Q25. This will provide some redundancy and address the operational vulnerability at Triton.

• As a result of Triton coming back later than expected, the company has reduced its FY24 production guidance to 37 mboe/d (we forecasted 39.5 mboe/d).

• While our YE24 net has increased, we note UK gas prices (NBP) now stand at ~£1.20 per therm. With Russia cutting gas supplies to Austria, the fundamentals for UK gas prices in the near term are very strong. Serica continues to be committed to significant dividend returns. All else being equal, we continue to forecast >16% dividend yield for 2024. • We re-iterate our target price of £2.90 per share.

Reflections on Capital allocation - UK NBP futures stand at an average of >£1.10 per therm in 2025. Assuming FY24 production of only ~41 mboe/d (compared to 1Q25 production capacity >50 mboe/d) and Brent prices remaining at current levels (~US$73/bbl), we forecast that Serica could generate ~US$500 mm of operating cashflow (post tax and interest) next year. Even assuming FY25 capex in line with FY24 (US$270 mm), this would lead to US$230 mm free cash flow. This leaves ample running room to fund a dividend at current levels (~US$115 mm) and/or make acquisitions. The new fiscal terms stability in the UK has generated multiple opportunities for the company.

Valuation - We have reduced our Brent price forecasts in 4Q24 and 1Q25 from US$80/bbl to US$75/bbl but have increased our NBP forecasts from £0.94/sh to £1.10/th in 4Q24. As we incorporate the later production restart at Triton, our Core (2P) NAV and ReNAV are broadly unchanged at ~£2.44 per share and £2.84 per share.

Broker note ....'we forecast that Serica could generate ~US$500 mm of operating cashflow (post tax and interest) next year. Even assuming FY25 capex in line with FY24 (US$270 mm), this would lead to US$230 mm free cash flow'

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1861315810188296428

Compressor at Triton back on line • The first compressor at Triton has been repaired and the platform is expected to be back online this week. This represents a few weeks’ delay but the restart will boost production materially.

With the recent addition of the B6 well (>5 mboe/d net), total production was already over 50 mboe/d on 2 October. Since then, the Gannet GE05 well has been tied-in and the EC1 well (Guillemot NW field) has reached TD (first production in 1Q25). Overall, we forecast that Serica could produce ~48 mboe/d in 1Q25

Valuation We have reduced our Brent price forecasts in 4Q24 and 1Q25 from US$80/bbl to US$75/bbl but have increased our NBP forecasts from £0.94/sh to £1.10/th in 4Q24. As we incorporate the later production restart at Triton, our Core (2P) NAV and ReNAV are broadly unchanged at ~£2.44 per share and £2.84 per share.

All else being equal, we continue to forecast >16% dividend yield for 2024. • We re-iterate our target price of £2.90 per share

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1861310180199153692

While our YE24 net has increased, we note UK gas prices (NBP) now stand at ~£1.20 per therm. With Russia cutting gas supplies to Austria, the fundamentals for UK gas prices in the near term are very strong. Serica continues to be committed to significant dividend returns. All else being equal, we continue to forecast >16% dividend yield for 2024. • We re-iterate our target price of £2.90 per share.

we forecast that Serica could generate ~US$500 mm of operating cashflow (post tax and interest) next year. Even assuming FY25 capex in line with FY24 (US$270 mm), this would lead to US$230 mm free cash flow. This leaves ample running room to fund a dividend at current levels (~US$115 mm) and/or make acquisitions. The new fiscal terms stability in the UK has generated multiple opportunities for the company.

Last week, our Director, New Energy, Okechukwu Mba, discussed the importance of Nigeria’s natural gas as a key to a #sustainable and prosperous future. He also highlighted the need to leverage our abundant #gas resources. At Seplat Energy, we are dedicated to driving this vision.

https://x.com/SeplatEnergy/status/1858485900176408663

Last years trading update was 6.12.23, so expecting any TU between now and around early December

Many governments are prioritising energy security over climate targets & offshore drilling for oil/gas is is back in vogue. “increased activity is more through small, fast, agile, short-cycle time, smaller assets.” Faster, leaner, creates less emissions and is technologically more advanced than earlier platforms,”

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1858438754949583100

Added a few more too....

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1857391750387847416

Sentiment for UK oil/gas stocks at lows and reflected in current share price, however, from an investors view on fundamentals and stock metrics #SQZ 's figures are top end high with profits, free cash flow and top rate dividend that #SQZ has indicated will be comfortably covered by earnings....broker has a 290p target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1857081003732263295

Added a few more ...

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1857437103182741771

Whilst this was a ‘typical’ 3rd quarter, ie one with lower river levels, PetroTal are getting better at dealing with the problem and with ebitda of $47.5m giving net income of $7.2m it was a good period. The output being up 39% y/y is mighty impressive and YTD is 23% on last year and indeed up on previous guidance.

PetroTal successfully drilled two new wells in the quarter, including one water disposal well and one production well. The 20H well has produced an average of 4,209 bopd over the last 14 days, as Bretaña field production and exports have returned to capacity.

PetroTal continues to be amongst the best in the sector for returning money to shareholders, Q3 saw dividends of $0.015 per share and bought 1m shares back making a return of some $14.3m, the company yields 13% and add a couple of points for the buy back. There remains a great deal of upside in these shares and in the meantime few companies as good as this have not only income but capital gain to be made.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2024/11/oil-price-petrotal-zephyr-deltic-petro-matad/