Member Info for surprised

Continues - there will be cheap assets available across the world, we are considering, we know what we like and what to do, the focus on M&A takes time, need shareholder value, sqz shares are cheap buybacks will continue, Need right deal rather than a deal, be patient, we will not risk balance sheet or shareholder returns

Continues - despite epl SQZ generates good free cash flow, tax offsets mitigate epl taxes if tax regime changes for worse SQZ will seek M&A and intend to return cash to shareholders if have additional cash, areas further away than Norway also under consideration

Continues,-- will adjust investment in UK and or away from UK depending on government tax plans once known after budget, SQZ can still make healthy returns in UK with current assets and maintain shareholder returns

Listening to investor meet CEO seems to know his stuff, impressed with his expertise and knowledge.

Excuse spelling erros,

Investor meet underway -,SQZ is financially robust, plans to maintain shareholer returns as finacially sound despite investment plans and epl. Confident can increase production

Free cash flow in worse case tax regime expected to be at least half a billion dollars, current drilling should provide rapid returs (under a year) Sqz have resilient cash generating assets

Will fix lower end current guidance as the barrels are not lost just delayed and expect to raise guidance over next term

continues....

The update is very good, free cash flow, profits etc and a great divi all in place and going forward SQZ have the option to make a profitable aquisitin away from UK in time, in the meantime maximising their current UK assets.

SQZ have the firepower (bank facilities) to aquire a decent opportunity equally they have the cash generating business in the UK that can maintian divis, provide profits and allow for expansion. Under the current taz regime that is a very good outlook based on facts , figures and a new board who are now looking to take SQZ through the current epl situation and grow the business again from here .

Give the sp time to adjust as there are many 'positions' that will 'adjust' over the next day or so and the sp will probably begin to reflect the positivity over coming days as some of the larger institutions reposition themselves (some for the divi alone) It is not uncommon in these situations to see the sp down initially, however, it does provides retail investors an opportunity

Very good set of results, despite Labour's taxes, and the importance of being able to offset tax losses a key factor. A lot to like after the poor sentiment over recent times, the facts and figures, free cashflow and profitability will surprise a few people and today's Investor meet at 9am should add further positivity as market digests the good results and outlook.

https://presentations.investormeetcompany.com/investor-meet-company/SERICA-ENERGY-PLC-Half-Year-Results?

SQZ 'expect to generate over half a billion dollars of cash flow over the coming three years at current commodity prices, after factoring in the expected tax regime'..Free Cash flow $98m, net cash $131, profitable and 15%+ divi maintained

Sentiment hit sp, however, previous tax losses offset impact of epl and SQZ generates free cash flow, profits and has option of relocating away from UK, plus a 17% divi......broker currently has a target 290p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1833396297342050760

'Our confidence in our cash generation outlook, together with our strong balance sheet, gives us capital allocation options. Paramount amongst these will always be supporting material shareholder returns which is why we are announcing today that we are holding the interim dividend flat at 9p per share. In addition, to sustain the longevity of our model, we want to continue reinvesting our cash flows into our UK North Sea assets' We will only be able to make these investments if the fiscal environment allows us to generate a fair return on your capital.

We also have the option to add to our portfolio through acquisitions and that is why we will continue, intensively but prudently, to seek value-accretive M&A, both at home and abroad.

SQZ expectation of generating over half a billion dollars of cash flow after currently committed investments over the coming three years at current commodity prices, after factoring in the expected tax regime

Those tax losses are now coming into play and largely shielding SQZ from labour's WFT, sentiment due to the EPL and Labour's initial plans have crashed the sp recently, HOWEVER, the cash flow generated, the divi and profitabilty of SQZ is at odds to todays share price and should see a steady rise over coming weeks as cash, profits and positivity takeover ⬆️

Sentiment hits sp, however, previous tax losses offset impact of epl and SQZ generates free cash flow, profits and has option of relocating away from UK, plus a 17% divi..initial target 290p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1831228890640957512

Hi Tony

I've put the link in the tweet below as it would be 'blanked out' on the lse bb

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1831228890640957512

There is no update to the US$414.5m order book number given for the beginning of August, and GMS continues to work through its substantial existing backlog. The order book continues to represent over 2.5x 2023 full year revenues, giving substantial revenue visibility.

GMS recently reconfirmed EBITDA guidance for 2024 of US$92-100m, and there is again no change to this today, with 2024 continuing to be expected to represent a further year of growth and positive cash flows.  For 2025, GMS still expects to update existing EBITDA guidance of US$92-100m before the end of 2024. Given the ongoing contract and revenue momentum, our forecasts continue to assume an increase in the guidance range for 2025

Traget price 29p a share.

Overall, in our view this is a further solid set of results from GMS, demonstrating the benefit of the higher day rates agreed as contracts have rolled over during the last 18 months, and the increased cash flows these are allowing GMS to generate. Going forward, we look for more contract renewals to continue driving higher day rates, as key clients in the Middle East progress investment programmes to bolster production in the ongoing healthy oil and gas price environment. We also look for further detail on the timing of dividends, on potential growth initiatives, and reporting of further strong cash flows and de-leveraging

On valuation, GMS is trading on an EV/EBITDA of 4.7x 2025 (using current net debt). This compares with around 5.5x for the UK oil services sector (though peer Ashtead Technologies is on closer to 8x), with around 5x for international drilling rig owners, and around 9x for Middle East rig owners. Overall, we believe a multiple approaching 6.5x can be justified for GMS based on the growth we expect from the ongoing strong market for its vessels and the upside to be had as debt continues to be paid down and value converts to equity: this would imply a price of 29p/share .

Broker report 30.07.24

Assuming a sunset date of 2030 for the EPL (in line with the government’s announcement) sees our valuation increase to ~£2.30 per share (90% upside). This assumes that Buchan is not developed.

or...

Under a low commodity price scenario (GBp57/th for NBP UK gas prices and $74.21 for Brent, the level below which the EPL would fall away), Buchan is sanctioned and our valuation for Serica would be £4.00

Ed Miliband and Chris Stark have just admitted they have no clue what theyre doing..

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1830303659214991433

Accelerating drilling programme &. Successfully dealing with low water levels

• 2Q24 production of 18,290 bbl/d had been reported previously.

• Production in July was 20,034 bbl/d, very close to the production of 20,555 bbl/d in June

. • The dry river season indicators are at the moment at lower levels than 2023. However, the production guidance of ~13 mbbl/d for 3Q24 has been re-iterated thanks to the increased barge fleet size.

• Our FY24 forecast of 16.8 mbbl/d is unchanged (unchanged guidance of 16.5-17.5 mbbl/d). • PetroTal is accelerating drilling capex to minimize rig standby fees and maximize production thanks to the increased water handling capacity. The 20H well is expected to be onstream by the end of 3Q24. Following the completion of the 20H well, PetroTal will drill and complete wells 21H, 22H and 23H at Bretana by the end of 1Q25.

We forecast production of 22 mbbl/d in 2025 (including production from Los Angeles) with capex similar to 2024. The acquisition of Block 131 continues to be expected to completed in 4Q24.

PetroTal held US$84 mm of unrestricted cash at the end of June. Overall Petrotal held working capital of ~US$140 mm at the end of June

Valuation

Our new Core NAV for the company based on the 2P reserves only (including Los Angeles) is £0.98 per share with a ReNAV of £1.43 per share

Good spot Alex

Here's the article

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1828152535779271126

Will this be the UK under @UKLabour net zero plans to tax UK Oil and Gas out of business ?

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1826622126012727686

Norway Has Overtaken Russia as Europe's Top Gas Supplier

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1826526163482624070