Member Info for surprised

Overall, this is a strong Q3 performance, showing an impressive maintenance of production and sales volumes during the lower river season, translating into cash generation as the company has at the same time progressed its CAPEX programme via drilling the 5WD and 20H wells

PetroTal is well set to achieve all guidance numbers, likely towards the top of the range on production and EBITDA, in our view, and we upgrade our forecasts today as a result.

Q4 dividend announced at 1.5c/share. Alongside its Q3 results, PetroTal has also confirmed a 1.5c/share Q3 2024 dividend, to be paid during Q4. This is the company’s base quarterly dividend level established in 2023, and represents a strong 13% yield at current share price levels.

PetroTal has a multi-year drilling programme which we expect to take production to approaching 25mbbl/d average in 2027 in the 2P case. We would expect the acquisition of Block 131 announced earlier this year to incrementally add to these numbers. The company has established multiple export routes for its Bretana crude, including barging to Manaus in Brazil, to the regional Iquitos refinery, and into the ONP pipeline (currently offline), helping underpin export reliability via diversity. New export routes are also being investigated, including via the OCP pipeline through Ecuador and Yurimaguas in Peru. PetroTal also engages in significant local social programmes in order to help reinforce its local licence to operate. The company has a strong balance sheet, holding US$133m of cash (zero debt) at the end of Q3 2024, supporting ongoing CAPEX investment and returns to shareholders, with PetroTal establishing a regular annual dividend of 6.0c/share from Q1 2023, implying a 13% yield at current levels. As such, PetroTal offers investors regular drilling news flow, strong and growing production based on a material asset, significant cash flows underpinned by the variety of export routes, an increasingly established dividend, and a strong balance sheet. We have a positive outlook for the shares, and value them in line with our 97p total risked NAV

Our strong performance in the first nine months of 2024 is driven by consistent production and successful maintenance operations. This includes new fields coming online and strategic plant turnarounds, all contributing to our impressive financial and operational highlights.

As we move forward, our focus is on maximizing production, optimizing our portfolio, and integrating recent acquisitions like MPNU to unlock even greater value for our stakeholders. We remain committed to maintaining operational excellence and financial stability,”

https://x.com/SeplatEnergy/status/1856678228414394556

Seplat Energy Plc, has announced that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (“NUPRC") has confirmed that consent has been granted by the Honourable Minister of Petroleum Resources in Nigeria, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu GCFR, to proceed with the acquisition of the entire issued share capital of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited ("MPNU") ("the Transaction").

https://x.com/SeplatEnergy/status/1856655025411428355

Despite record low river levels on PetroTal's primary export route, production volumes were 39% higher than the same period last year (10,909 bopd) and 17% ahead of previous Q3 guidance (13,000 bopd);

Exited Q3 2024 with $133 million in total cash ($121 million unrestricted), an increase of $20 million compared to the same period last year;

Successfully drilled two new wells in the quarter, including one water disposal well and one production well. The 20H well has produced an average of 4,209 bopd over the last 14 days, as Bretaña field production and exports have returned to capacity;

Q3 2024 net income totaled $7.2 million ($0.01/share), representing the 19th straight quarter in which PetroTal has returned net income profits;"The third quarter is typically the most challenging period of the year for PetroTal, due to seasonal declines in river levels which impact our ability to export crude oil from the Bretaña field. With that in mind, I am proud of the results our team has delivered this quarter. Although production declined relative to the prior quarter, we increased output by 39% compared to the same period last year and our YTD production is now tracking 23% higher than the first nine months of 2023, all while the Company is building cash and returning more than $51 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

"Looking ahead to 2025, PetroTal is well prepared to handle a period of lower oil prices. We have no debt and a stable, high-margin production base. As planned, our drilling program at Bretaña is pausing in Q1 2025, while we import a new, modern drilling rig to Peru. The new drilling rig is expected to drive material cost savings, while allowing us to control the pace of development, giving us a higher degree of flexibility to respond to changes in oil pricing as necessary. We look forward to providing detailed guidance on our 2025 budget and operational program in January."

Nigeria Sees Crude Output Rising 30% by Year-End on New Deals

While the regulator didn’t disclose the proportion of crude to condensate in its projection, a higher level would push output closer to or over the 1.5 million barrel a day quota that Nigeria agreed with OPEC+

Africa’s largest oil producer has stayed below its OPEC+ quota for more than two years due to a lack of investment and widespread theft and vandalism in the oil-rich Niger Delta. President Bola Tinubu’s government has made efforts to draw investors to the sector by offering tax breaks to producers as well as approving pending asset sales.

The upstream regulator is looking to open bids for 31 oil and gas blocks spanning the country’s onshore and offshore acreage as part of measures to further increase production, Amadasu said, without giving a timeline. “These blocks have been carefully selected for its potentials to boost our reserves and stimulate economic activities,”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-11/nigeria-sees-crude-output-rising-30-by-year-end-on-new-deals?srnd=homepage-africa

Added to HBR ⬆️✅ 253.5p....it's slipped back again..

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1854916342740119860

Me too 😀

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1853786640403014099

Took a further 10400 shares at 136p....budget out the way, allowances in place with tax offsets, Free cash flow and profits along with top dividend all in place and no doubt aquistions ahead with added value

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1853350759858925757

With Exxon aquisition near completion and expected increases in production, revenue, free cash flow, profits and additional dividend increase to match, initial target was 260p now raised to 285p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1851964660179665075

Here's the 'Must own stock' part of the report -

''With the fiscal uncertainty now removed and a sustainable dividend (yield is ~16% assuming current commodity prices), Serica Energy is a “must own” stock.

• We re-iterate our target price of £2.90 per share ''

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1851944512089727339

Broker note headline and target 290p price

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1851942683566023155

UK budget better than feared • While the new fiscal regime for UK upstream oil and gas in yesterday’s UK budget incorporates a 3% increase in EPL (to 38%) and the elimination of the 29% investment uplift allowance for EPL purposes, this is a better outcome than feared.

• While these changes were expected, the industry and investors had been concerned by the possibility that capex investment might not be fully deductible for EPL purposes. That risk has now been removed.

• In addition, the 62.5% investment uplift allowance for SCT purposes (10% rate) remains in place.

• Overall, this means that £1 of spending triggers 84.15% of tax shield vs a 78% tax rate. This is better than our assumption of 78%/78%.

• Importantly, the new fiscal regime provides stability and visibility to the industry for the duration of the current government until 2030. The new fiscal regime allows Serica to continue to invest in the UK North Sea.

Of particular interest is the Bruce area where multiple growth opportunities have been identified. No new wells have been drilled at Bruce since 2012. The same subsurface team (from Tailwind Energy) that successfully encountered new development opportunities at Triton will now focus on Bruce.

• A stable fiscal regime will also probably make UK M&A transactions more likely

While economics are now strong enough to sanction the Buchan Horst development, the key risk there remains the environment permitting process. The result of the ongoing consultation that will define the new rules is expected in the spring. We therefore do not anticipate much capex spending at Buchan in 2025.

• With the fiscal uncertainty now removed and a sustainable dividend (yield is ~16% assuming current commodity prices), Serica Energy is a “must own” stock.

• We re-iterate our target price of £2.90 per share.

Key factor in budget was for retention of some capital allowance off set and #SQZ got it. This provides #SQZ with opportunity to continue to generate substantial Free Cash Flow, despite tax rate and protects attractive dividend (15%) payments too. Importantly this now allows #SQZ to acquire further cheap UK assets and improve further the free cash flow and profits, thanks to offsets, whilst seeking aquisitions outside UK over the next couple of years, developing along similar lines as #HBR. On current 'knowns' my view is #SQZ should head closer to 225p+ and much higher on any aquistion news that we know they are currently considering.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1851890800977703300

Cash generated from operations of $423.3 million, up 17%, debt down, divi increased by 20% ahead of completion of transformational MPNU deal.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1851175579346751837

Production at the Triton FPSO is expected to be restored mid November.

• As a result of this 2-3 week shut down, average annual production is now expected to be slightly below 41 mboe/d.

• Pending publication of the UK budget on Wednesday and the subsequent operating update to be published by Serica in midNovember, we have not changed our estimates for 2024. Reducing our production forecast for 2024 by 1-2 mboe/d is expected to have a minimal impact on our valuation • Any share price weakness could offer an opportunity for investors. At the current share price the dividend yield is ~18%. Current UK gas prices are high (97.9 p per therm so far in 4Q24 vs our assumptions of 95 p per therm) and even assuming very punitive fiscal terms in the UK, the high free cash flow generation of the company suggests this level of dividend is sustainable.

• We re-iterate our target price of £2.90 per share UK budget to be published on 30 October

The key newsflow for Serica is the upcoming UK budget to be published on 30 October that will provide visibility on the UK fiscal regime. Assuming 38% for the EPL (total of 78% tax on profit), no sunset date for the EPL and no allowed depreciation for EPL purposes (ie £1 of spending triggers only 40% of tax shield vs 78% tax) would lead to a core NAV (based on the company’s 2P reserves only) of ~£1.80 per share. This represents ~50% upside to the current share price. Assuming “normal” depreciation (78% tax shield vs 78% tax) takes our Core NAV to £2.50 per share and unlocks further investment opportunities, including Buchan, with an overall ReNAV of ~£2.90 per shares.

Target: £2.90

With offshore wind sector capacity set to more than double by 2030, we see increased demand for GMS vessels in this sector. This offers an implicit counter cyclical hedge to the traditional oil & gas sector, and we see this as offering greater opportunities in the future for GMS

The European wind sector is growing exponentially, with commissioned capacity forecast to reach 98GW by 2030 – well above the current commissioned capacity of 35GW. The UK has the greatest commissioned capacity in Europe at present (at 14.7GW), with a further 6.3GW currently under construction.....the growth across the wind sector will present huge opportunities to companies involved in any aspect of the sector. Consequently, it is clear that the demand for vessels to support the installation and maintenance of offshore windfarms is set to remain very strong in the coming years, with availability of vessels – such as GMS E-class vessels - likely to be a limiting factor. We believe that this latent demand increase will deliver higher day rates for vessels operating in Europe. Putting this into context, GMS Endeavour is averaging around five days per maintenance cycle per turbine (i.e. c60 turbines each year). With more than 2000 turbines already in place across the UK and Europe, it is clear that there is vast potential for long term maintenance contracts.

....the renewables market offers material growth upside for GMS. This is due to the sheer amount of demand that will come from new installations and by extension, maintenance required across the European offshore wind sector. We see this as offering greater scope for GMS to secure further contracts with major windfarm operators

Trarget price raised from 26p to 30p

Broker increases target to 30p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1849716172586946820

Sp slipped back through dry season, river levels rising now and therefore oil shipments increase and production figures all looking good, sp expected to respond accordingly over next few weeks and trading back in the 47p to 50p+ range

broker has 140p target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1849372366872207423

Gone ex divi today and sp adjusted down 6% initially, despite government taxes etc the business is generating cash, divi 15%+, profits and has an experienced bod, the company metrics have also seen it climb the @stockopedia

stock ranks to 94 and broker see's greater upside

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1849359935148077300

News broke just before close yesterday of sale of UK assets and possible listing in US away from UK tax grab as #HBR board continue moves to make it a major global player and broker has a current 373p target (likely to be revised up on this news)

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1849361732403069307