Member Info for surprised

Today's investor presentation link below, that will make this weeks 'panic' sellers wonder why they gave their shares away. New aquisition is a 'sleeping giant' that is about to provide increased profits & cash, higher dividends and a rising sp

https://sparklive.lseg.com/SeplatPetroleumDevelopmentCo/events/b8319db9-3c1b-4a42-9d50-c1452d2bc199/seplat-energy-plc-investor-call

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1867327590765064502

Presentation - ''Plenty of cash generation to fund it without pia and clearly pia offers increased cash generation, bod very aware of tax shields and ensuring capital and production taxes are minimised to allow SEPL to grow shareholder value in both sp and dividends''

High cash generation opportunity, low risk, and can utilise tax rates with investment and now in final stages of alligning to pia and ensuring tax shield,... looks like bod know what they are about

norway campaigns to cut energy links to europe as power prices soar

country’s energy minister describes ‘**** situation’ as domestic prices hit highest level since 2009

the ruling centre-left labour party now says it wants to campaign in next year’s parliamentary election to turn off electricity interconnectors to denmark when they come up for renewal in 2026.

its junior coalition partner, the centre party, has long demanded an end to the danish connection and also wants to renegotiate existing interconnectors with the uk and germany.

the issue is also causing deep alarm among eu countries keen to use norway’s abundant hydroelectric power to help balance energy prices on the continent.

“this is a crunch moment for eu-norway relations. reducing power connections to europe will not be well received,” one eu ambassador in oslo said.

https://www.ft.com/content/f0b621a1-54f2-49fc-acc1-a660e9131740

Stokopedia like the deal too - ''The amounts here are de minimis for a company with a £500m+market cap at £5m initial + £9m deferred consideration. However, there are some strategic reasons for doing this deal and this may be the most attractive part, given the current fiscal regime 'PUK has carried forward tax loss balances which as at the transaction economic date of 30 June 2024 amounted to £197 million of ring-fence corporation tax losses, £181 million of supplementary charge tax losses, £1 million of Energy Profits Levy losses and £12 million of activated investment allowances. PUK has no employees.'....Parkmead clearly don’t have the financial flexibility to develop these assets.

This shows the kind of deals that can be done with Serica's financial strength...this deal reinforces why I view this as a very cheap, conservatively-financed business with the ability to do good deals .''

To register for investor presentation at midday today, link below, press access event and register

https://sparklive.lseg.com/SeplatPetroleumDevelopmentCo/events/b8319db9-3c1b-4a42-9d50-c1452d2bc199/seplat-energy-plc-investor-call

Broker note - The transaction offers Serica significant tax synergies. Upon completion of the acquisition, Serica's tax loss balance will increase by £197 mn for RCT, £193 mn for SCT (including £12 mn in activated investment allowances), and £1 mm for EPL, as of 30 June 2024. Previously, we forecasted that Serica's tax losses for SCT and RCT would be exhausted by mid-2027 and mid-2028, respectively. With this acquisition, these tax losses will now extend to 2030

''The value of these tax losses could increase further if the company makes a more material acquisition of tax paying producing assets in the UK. This remains one of SQZ strategic goals''.

We have increased our target price from £2.90 per share to £3.00 per share, which captures the accretive nature of the acquisition

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1867115168192499996

Calm returning to market after yesterday's 'panic' by some and sp responding accordingly...

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1866828580140806347

Many folk lost money this morning in some 'panic' selling as sp dropped from 215p to 148p. The opportunities provided by the aquisition are expected by the bod to produce increased profits, dividends and increased share holder value. The bod have not failed shareholders to date and I don't expect them too anytime soon..

The shorters have a short term 'win' currently....'game on' as we head to the end of week and Thursday's company presentation on the deal for MPNU.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1866468054034784488

Crazy drop on opening

RNS -

Revenue increases 245% on a pro-forma basis (6M 2024) to $1,456 million

Adjusted EBITDA increases 199% on a pro-forma basis (6M 2024) to $800 million

MPNU reports 1H 2024 Adjusted EBITDA of $533 million. On a pro-forma basis the enlarged group generated $800 million adjusted EBITDA, an increase of 199% on Seplat reported adjusted EBITDA.

MPNU is cash generative; in 6M 2024 it generated pre-tax CFFO of $422 million. On a pro-forma basis in 6M 2024 the enlarged group generated $648 million, an increase of 187%

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1866399222108725440

Markets do like an over reaction occasionally...a few would have lost their shares on stop losses/panic etc. being triggered with that crazy 30 percent drop. At least it's clawed back 13 percent in last few minutes as some take the opportunity to gain some very cheap shares....

With respect no, I just used the quote in the substack where the chap had used the 'risks' section as 'fact' that additional funds will be required where the bod have stated no additional funds required and costs met from existing rescources. In addition to use the 'risks' section of a prospectus as the basis of a negative view of the deal is somewhat disengenuous.

The risk section is standard in any prospectus as we know and as in any business there is always risk, however, to assume the majority of risks will materialise as the base for not investing is as poor as assuming every aspect will work perfectly.

It takes both sellers and buyers to make a market. The substack is 'cleverly' written and makes a case for the writer selling his shares a while back with the emphasis on the bod have little understanding of the value of the deal or the finances involved.

The bod's take is this is transformational for SEPL and will provide increase in revenue, profits, dividends etc and on current view I have no reason to doubt the bod's plans. Thursday's presentation will support one view or the other for holders. I remain positive on the deal and have added recently to my holding on the dip.

Fully funded from available cash and debt facilities, no new equity issuance required

· Pro-forma 2P reserves for the enlarged group of 887 MMboe (at 30 June 2024), an increase of 86% on Seplat's reported 2P reserves, and pro-forma 2P + 2C reserves and resources of 1,210 MMboe an increase of 124%

· Production increases 148% on a pro-forma basis (6M 2024) to 119.8 kboepd

· Revenue increases 245% on a pro-forma basis (6M 2024) to $1,456 million

· Adjusted EBITDA increases 199% on a pro-forma basis (6M 2024) to $800 million

· Creates Nigeria's leading independent energy company. The enlarged company has equity in:

o 11 blocks in onshore and shallow water Nigeria

o 48 producing oil & gas fields;

o 5 gas processing facilities; and

o 3 export terminals

license portfolio with multiple high-potential investment opportunities to drive growth

o Short term oil gain (STOG) activities focused on well stock and facilities

o Multiple in-fill and exploration drilling locations

o Multi-Tcf gas opportunity from commercialisation of undeveloped gas resources

· Strong balance sheet position maintained. Pro-forma Net debt/EBITDA at 30 June 2024 similar to Seplat reported leverage at 30 June 2024 of 0.8x, and well inside corporate policy of 2.0x

With respect to the substack bearish comment, the twitter handle of the same name sold his shares a while back and has assumed a host of risks and that the bod have little understanding of the nature of the deal and finances, No problem with a bearish stance, it takes bot sides to make a market, however, the bod have to date delivered and have positioned themselves as the company of choice for the government. Thursday's presentation should provide additional clarity and clearly if one was to take a positive view and the government approves the transition to PIA, these assets will become profitable, generating enough cash flow to justify the acquisition cost and support the bod's view that the deal will be transformative for SEPL.

Revenue increases 245% on a pro-forma basis (6M 2024) to $1,456 million

Adjusted EBITDA increases 199% on a pro-forma basis (6M 2024) to $800 million

MPNU reports 1H 2024 Adjusted EBITDA of $533 million. On a pro-forma basis the enlarged group generated $800 million adjusted EBITDA, an increase of 199% on Seplat reported adjusted EBITDA.

MPNU is cash generative; in 6M 2024 it generated pre-tax CFFO of $422 million. On a pro-forma basis in 6M 2024 the enlarged group generated $648 million, an increase of 187%

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1866154453352468711

Rns -These assets are of proven quality, located in one of the world's leading hydrocarbon basins

Revenue increases 245% on a pro-forma basis (6M 2024) to $1,456 million

Adjusted EBITDA increases 199% on a pro-forma basis (6M 2024) to $800 million

MPNU reports 1H 2024 Adjusted EBITDA of $533 million. On a pro-forma basis the enlarged group generated $800 million adjusted EBITDA, an increase of 199% on Seplat reported adjusted EBITDA.

MPNU is cash generative; in 6M 2024 it generated pre-tax CFFO of $422 million. On a pro-forma basis in 6M 2024 the enlarged group generated $648 million, an increase of 187% on Seplat reported pre-tax CFFO.

The Company will host a conference call for investors and analysts on the day of completion. Dial-in details will be provided at that time.

The prospectus will be available to download from our website later today, www.seplatenergy.com

Rns -The transaction, which is expected to complete on 12 December 2024 is transformative for #SEPL doubling production to around 120,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and providing a significant opportunity to further drive its growth and profitability.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1866146715167772724

Denmark today received NO BIDS in its largest-ever wind power tender, aimed to more than triple its offshore capacity by the end of the decade.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/commodities/2024/12/05/denmark-receives-no-bids-in-largest-ever-offshore-wind-tender/

Compressor at Triton down for 2-4 weeks

• After resumption of production at the Triton FPSO last week, an issue with one of the compressor seals has been discovered which has resulted in production being suspended

. • These repairs are expected to take 2-4 weeks. We are now cautiously assuming that Triton will be offline until YE24.

• Issues at Triton’s compressors have had a significant impact on production in 2024. With Triton and Bruce fully operational, production has exceeded 50 mboe/d. Current production is only 28 mboe/d.

• Addressing the Triton compressor issues is critical achieving a sustained high level of production. The second compressor at Triton continues to be expected to be repaired in 1Q25. This will provide critical redundancy and address the operational vulnerability at Triton.

• As a result of the shutdown at Triton, we now forecast FY24 production of 35.3 mboe/d with a YE24 net debt of ~US$80-85 mm

. • We have made cautious assumptions for uptime at Triton next year

• Triton production is only deferred rather than lost and we re-iterate our target price of £2.90 per share.