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Hi dohers316, share price slipping appears to be across the board as many sectors being taken lower by algo trading etc. Nothing specific to Sepl as all indicators are for a positive outlook, increased divi upcoming etc.....markets provide opportunity at times and at current sp level anyone buying now looks like they have a very decent entry and investment.

Like many stocks recently sp has slipped, however, all stock metrics are solid green and a very positive stock rank of 98, indicating a greater potential upside than down.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1897918332793192589

Broker note out following today's end of year results and maintaining 318p price target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1897660400734220485

Well this mornings drop demonstrated a number of posters did not understand how HBR are transitioning away from UK and expanding operations and equally were not aware of the financial aspects of the business, although all these aspects were known and in the public domain.UK tax implications well publicised early on and the expected divi increase also known etc etc........After the initial 'panic' and markets over egging the drop I fully expect a gradual recover to more sensible levels and happy to collect the divi while we wait and calm is restored.

Results out and dividend increase as it transitions away from UK with larger operation

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1897552053775241497

It is astonishing how many are surprised with the results, all exactly as expected a few short months after the Wintershall deal. The Uk tax rate was known etc etc......holding all my shares as results exactly as expected, As HBR transition away from the UK as they should and have done.

Added to SEPL holding on a surprise drop of 6% today following yesterdays stellar results and outlook

Markets provide opportunity on occasions.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1897241053671125172

''There’s currently no financial gain to be had from investing in renewable power. The whole sector — solar, wind, hydrogen, fuel cells — anything clean is dead for now,” says chief investment officer at London-based Kanou Capital LLP

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-03/hedge-fund-built-on-energy-bets-says-clean-is-dead-for-now

''There’s currently no financial gain to be had from investing in renewable power. The whole sector — solar, wind, hydrogen, fuel cells — anything clean is dead for now,” says chief investment officer at London-based Kanou Capital LLP

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-03/hedge-fund-built-on-energy-bets-says-clean-is-dead-for-now

Ed Miliband could be the most high-profile victim of a spring reshuffle as Sir Keir Starmer sidelines the Net Zero environmental agenda as part of the Government’s ‘dash for growth’

‘The Net Zero agenda has been subsumed by the need to boost the floundering economy and the new world order in Washington. ‘It’s obvious he is not happy, and might jump if he is not pushed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14451121/Ed-Miliband-Spring-Reshuffle-Keir-Starmer-Net-Zero.html

On a red down day for markets it looks like CMCX is about to turn up and Blue

CMCX fintech partner Revolut is expected to report a record $1 billion in profit, up from $545 million. There has been a major upswing in fintech valuations recently. Revolut has amassed 50 million customers around the world & is now one of the largest banks on the planet in terms of customers

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1895363655350288538

On a red day for markets HBR look set to turn Blue ⬆️

Partnership announced in June 2024 - Lord Cruddas, CEO of CMC Markets, commented ''We are pleased to announce our fintech partnership with global neobank, Revolut. The partnership will see CMC and Revolut connecting via multiple APIs, with the user interface delivered directly via the Revolut app whilst trading, pricing, account systems, execution and clearing are provided by CMC.''

Bloomberg exclusive 28 Feb 2025 -   ' Investors are pushing Revolut Ltd. to consider offering another secondary share sale as new investors are scouring for ways to get a stake in the fast-growing fintech.' A potential secondary sale that values the company (Revolut) at approximately $60 billion would be a significant boost from the $45 billion previous valuaton. New investors continued to clamor for the shares in earlier oversubscribed deal.

Revolut isn’t yet working on an offering and the company would need to authorize such a move....The talks come as Revolut is expected to report roughly $1 billion in profit before tax for 2024. That would be a record and up from $545 million a year earlier.

There has been an upswing in fintech valuations recently. Stripe Inc., for instance, $91.5 billion valuation, which is up from $70 billion.

Revolut in November announced that it had amassed 50 million customers around the world. That makes it one of the largest banks on the planet in terms of customers - putting it on track to one day rival the likes of Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. on that metric.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-27/revolut-pressed-to-consider-share-sale-at-60-billion-valuation?srnd=homepage-uk

Https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1895137767631335691

Forecast and valuation update - 27.02.25

We have now updated our model to introduce new forecasts accounting for Harbour’s Wintershall Dea acquisition, and incorporating guidance from the recent trading statement. These show the company valued at reasonably attractive metrics versus peers, underpinned by the diversity of the production base.

Forecasts:

The Wintershall transaction has transformed Harbour, almost tripling production and significantly diversifying the asset base outside the UK, including into Norway, Germany, Argentina, and Egypt. We have modelled Harbour on a country-by-country basis, with production, revenue, cost, and tax for each jurisdiction.

Valuation:

We have valued Harbour using our country asset models to derive our NAV. At long term Brent of US$65/bbl, NBP of 70p/therm, and TTF of EUR30/MWH, we get to a core NAV of 143p, and a total risked NAV of 318p

Our forecasts leave Harbour trading on a 2025 EV/EBITDA of 1.3x and P/FCF of 5.1x. This compares to UK sector peers on around 2.0x and 4.5x respectively. At current levels, Harbour is also on a 10% forward dividend yield that is 1.8x covered in 2025.

Outlook and recommendation: -Harbour’s Wintershall acquisition is the company’s most ambitious yet, and has driven significant production growth and an increase in expected dividend per share. The company’s ability to service its debt and maintain dividends, alongside drive overall positive news flow, is also significantly enhanced by the new diversity of the asset and project portfolio. The shares are below our 318p total risked NAV, and even trading at that level would still see them at a discount to peers on EV/EBITDA, and a 7.7% dividend yield. In anticipation of ongoing cash flows and dividends, further deleveraging, and overall positive news from the portfolio, not least at the upcoming 2024 results on 6 March, we have a Buy recommendation and set a 318p target price.

Full report as requested.

Https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1895049751189426220

Forecasts: - The Wintershall transaction has transformed Harbour, almost tripling production and significantly diversifying the asset base outside the UK, including into Norway, Germany, Argentina, and Egypt. We have modelled Harbour on a country-by-country basis, with production, revenue, cost, and tax for each jurisdiction. We then aggregate these to derive our company forecasts, which are broadly in-line with/within company guidance.

Our forecasts leave Harbour trading on a 2025 EV/EBITDA of 1.3x and P/FCF of 5.1x. This compares to UK sector peers on around 2.0x and 4.5x respectively. At current levels, Harbour is also on a 10.9% forward dividend yield that is 1.8x covered in 2025.

Outlook and recommendation: - Harbour’s Wintershall acquisition is the company’s most ambitious yet, and has driven significant production growth and an increase in expected dividend per share. The company’s ability to service its debt and maintain dividends, alongside drive overall positive news flow, is also significantly enhanced by the new diversity of the asset and project portfolio. The shares are below our 318p total risked NAV, and even trading at that level would still see them at a discount to peers on EV/EBITDA, and a 7.7% dividend yield. In anticipation of ongoing cash flows and dividends, further deleveraging, and overall positive news from the portfolio, not least at the upcoming 2024 results on 6 March, we have a

Buy recommendation and set a 318p target price.

⬆️

The sp and 'market moves' up or down as we know are typically seperate from the business and at times are over valued or under valued, it is for each investor/trader to determine based on finances etc to determine if today is a buying or selling opportunity, for me I' would probably be in a panic if the CFO had not been changed.

It sends a message he is stepping down after 20 years and CMCX has a new broon in as CFO, looks like a good move for a business that has half it's mcap in cash, profits and Free cash flow along with a divi ....different views are what makes a market, however, the very decent financials at CMCX are facts and the rest is simply 'emotion'.