Member Info for surprised

Deutsche Bank Research raises Man Group to BUY and price target to 230p

U.S. President Donald Trump said all purchases of Iranian oil or petrochemical products must stop and any country or person buying any from the country would be immediately subject to secondary sanctions.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-buying-iranian-oil-must-stop-threatens-secondary-sanctions-purchasers-2025-05-01/

Https://www. research - tree. com/ research/panmure-liberum/panmure-liberum- liberation-day-unleashes-chaos-challenges-abound-but-value-opportunities-exist/1_1027177

Serica is page 11

Broker note 30/04/2025

Serica Energy (BUY, Target Price 281p)

Serica may (or may not) combine with EnQuest to create a major North Sea Independent. The recent volatility in markets following Liberation Day meant the extension of the put up or shut up (PUSU) date for EnQuest (to make an offer) was no surprise. With the next deadline of 2nd May, it would not be a surprise if the date was extended again, given the deal is proposed as a reverse takeover.

The proposed combination is logical as metrics point to improved ratings for larger companies. The combined entity would have a market cap of c $1.05bn and EV of c$1.63bn. It would also have production of c80kboepd with clear growth opportunities from UKCS projects and in SE Asia. With a proforma gearing of c0.5x, there would be scope for an enlarge business to undertake further M&A without dilution to existing holders. As a standalone entity, Serica remains very attractive at current levels, with the shares tracking below Brent, despite UK gas prices remaining much higher y-o-y. The substantial proportion of revenues come from gas production and this offers an implicit hedge against lower oil prices

However, investors still remain concerned about the recent outages at Triton and the ensuing extended shutdown. The reaction to this is, in our view, overdone, as the issues are all topsides related, and that production from Triton is merely deferred rather than lost. It is possible that the company will also be able to benefit from some flush production once the Triton wells are brought back onstream post repairs/maintenance.

With a stable production base (34.6kboepd in 2024) and a portfolio of opportunities that could take sustained production rates over 40kboepd over the medium term, there are few companies with clear growth potential of such scale.

Furthermore, Serica should deliver this growth without additional funding – even at current prices. We remain bullish on the outlook for Serica – either as a standalone entity or combined with EnQuest – as it offers substantial upside even under the penal UK fiscal regime, due to the large pool of tax losses (>$1bn) which generate a much lower effective rate of tax for the company.....BUY TP 281p

Added to #SQZ 126p...broker note & stock metrics below and a 10p (7.8% stand alone impact ) divi upcoming (goes ex 26/06/25)

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1917934776431890782

Serica Energy (BUY, Target Price 281p)

Serica may (or may not) combine with EnQuest to create a major North Sea Independent. The recent volatility in markets following Liberation Day meant the extension of the put up or shut up (PUSU) date for EnQuest (to make an offer) was no surprise. With the next deadline of 2nd May, it would not be a surprise if the date was extended again, given the deal is proposed as a reverse takeover.

The proposed combination is logical as metrics point to improved ratings for larger companies. The combined entity would have a market cap of c $1.05bn and EV of c$1.63bn. It would also have production of c80kboepd with clear growth opportunities from UKCS projects and in SE Asia. With a proforma gearing of c0.5x, there would be scope for an enlarge business to undertake further M&A without dilution to existing holders. As a standalone entity, Serica remains very attractive at current levels, with the shares tracking below Brent, despite UK gas prices remaining much higher y-o-y. The substantial proportion of revenues come from gas production and this offers an implicit hedge against lower oil prices

However, investors still remain concerned about the recent outages at Triton and the ensuing extended shutdown. The reaction to this is, in our view, overdone, as the issues are all topsides related, and that production from Triton is merely deferred rather than lost. It is possible that the company will also be able to benefit from some flush production once the Triton wells are brought back onstream post repairs/maintenance.

With a stable production base (34.6kboepd in 2024) and a portfolio of opportunities that could take sustained production rates over 40kboepd over the medium term, there are few companies with clear growth potential of such scale.

Furthermore, Serica should deliver this growth without additional funding – even at current prices. We remain bullish on the outlook for Serica – either as a standalone entity or combined with EnQuest – as it offers substantial upside even under the penal UK fiscal regime, due to the large pool of tax losses (>$1bn) which generate a much lower effective rate of tax for the company.....BUY TP 281p

Ahead of CMCX trading update interesting to note today's Bloomberg news...

Europe’s Trading Desks Score Gains in Midst of Trump Tumult

UBS Group AG said Wednesday its markets unit generated a record $2.5 billion in the first three months of the year, while Barclays Plc’s stock traders recorded their best quarter since 2022. Societe Generale SA said it saw a surge in equities trading revenue during the period and earlier this week Deutsche Bank AG’s touted that it was the best-ever start to the year for its traders.

More volatility has followed. “We saw a huge spike in client activity and volatility” in the first few days of April, UBS Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti told analysts on a conference call on Wednesday. He said it was 30% higher than at a peak in the pandemic “which is quite exceptional.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/europe-s-trading-desks-score-gains-in-midst-of-trump-tumult?srnd=homepage-uk

Not only great production figures with further growth ahead but an upcoming dividend of 4.3% (8.5p) over two close ex dividend dates 8/05/25 & 22/05/25 providing a quick bonus..

Dividend increase 28%, Production averaged 131,561 boepd up 167% above midpoint of guidance, Revenue $809 million up 350%, EBITDA of $401 million, up 226%, Reduced gross debt by 21%, cash $334.6 million excluding $128.9 million restricted,''business is designed to be robust at lower oil prices and our gas revenues, which are largely delinked to oil prices, & provide long-term stability''

Sales expected to double from $916mn to $2.3bn in 2025, and again in 2026. Even with oil in the low $60s the company remains in the money & Gas prices having gained significantly.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1917490997124100483

Gas Morphs From Being a ‘Bridge’ to Becoming the Destination

Some power companies have stopped calling the fuel a temporary pathway to renewable energy and are making it central to their long-range plans.

Utility executives have long called natural gas a “bridge” to a carbon-free power grid. On one side lay a past of smoke-belching coal plants; on the other, a clean future of renewables gradually stabilizing the climate.

They’re saying that a lot less often these days. The power demand boom accelerated by artificial intelligence has all but killed off the analogy. So has US President Donald Trump’s support for fossil fuels and hostility toward clean energy.

Some of those same utility executives now say gas will remain central to their plans for years to come.One recently described solar and wind power as a bridge to more gas plants , turning the whole idea on its head. Another said clean energy isn’t even on the agenda anymore.

Some power companies also purged climate targets from their communications. “We should be thinking about renewables and battery storage as a critical bridge to when other technology is ready at scale, like new gas-fired plants,” Ketchum said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-29/from-bridge-fuel-to-destination-natural-gas-is-now-key-to-power-company-plans

Natural Gas Morphs From Being a ‘Bridge’ to Becoming the Destination

Some power companies have stopped calling the fuel a temporary pathway to renewable energy and are making it central to their long-range plans.

Utility executives have long called natural gas a “bridge” to a carbon-free power grid. On one side lay a past of smoke-belching coal plants; on the other, a clean future of renewables gradually stabilizing the climate.

They’re saying that a lot less often these days. The power demand boom accelerated by artificial intelligence has all but killed off the analogy. So has US President Donald Trump’s support for fossil fuels and hostility toward clean energy.

Some of those same utility executives now say gas will remain central to their plans for years to come.One recently described solar and wind power as a bridge to more gas plants , turning the whole idea on its head. Another said clean energy isn’t even on the agenda anymore.

Some power companies also purged climate targets from their communications. “We should be thinking about renewables and battery storage as a critical bridge to when other technology is ready at scale, like new gas-fired plants,” Ketchum said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-29/from-bridge-fuel-to-destination-natural-gas-is-now-key-to-power-company-plans

Net Zero out of fashion - Utility executives now say 'Gas will remain central to their plans for years to come. One recently described solar and wind power as a bridge to MORE gas plants, turning the whole idea of renewables on its head, clean energy isn’t even on the agenda anymore'

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1917217374023127238

Broker note out - This was Seplat’s first set of quarterly results including the acquired ExxonMobil offshore assets (SEPNU) for a full quarter. Revenue jumped 350% YoY, or by 220% excluding over/underlift on production up 167% to 132kboed, despite lower realisations, with a near sextupling in oil volumes lifted to 9.9mmbbl. That drove a tripling in profit before tax to US$207.4m, generating EPS of USc0.03 (1Q24 USc0.00). Strong cash flow generation saw a reduction in net debt to US$747.1m with leverage at 0.6x (YE24 US$897.7, 0.7x). In a clear mark of the company’s confidence in its outlook, the quarterly dividend was hiked 28% ..

During the quarter, Seplat refinanced the US$650m notes expiring 2026, with an equivalent value of 2030 notes priced at 9.125%, inside the Nigerian sovereign rating, for the first time. That triggered an automatic extension of the company’s US$350m revolving credit facility to December 2026, of which US$250m was also repaid, given the company’s strong net cash generation, reducing gross debt by 21%..

Seplat delivered a strong performance in 1Q25, demonstrating the impact of the SEPNU acquisition and emphasised by a further substantial increase in the quarterly dividend..The performance in 1Q25, confirms the transformational nature of the SEPNU acquisition; ...

Divi increase 28% to 4.6c, Production averaged 131,561 boepd up 167% above midpoint of guidance, Revenue $809 million up 350%, EBITDA of $401 million, up 226%, Reduced gross debt by 21%, cash $334.6 million excluding $128.9 million restricted,''business is designed to be robust at lower oil prices and our gas revenues, which are largely delinked to oil prices, & provide long-term stability'' ceo

Even with oil in the low $60s the company remains in the money & Gas prices having gained significantly. The next dividend will pay a special of 3.3¢ (5p) with an ex-dividend date of 8th May.'

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1916748784614150629

Zeus broker note - PTAL report strong production leaving the company well set to make its full year guidance, alongside highlighting flexibility in its H2-weighted 2025 CAPEX programme to allow appropriate response to forward oil prices. Q1 continues to deliver strong production supported by recent wells. PetroTal has reported an average 23.3mbbl/d net production rate for Q1 2025

The company has a strong balance sheet, holding US$104.5m of net cash at the end of 2024, supporting ongoing CAPEX investment and returns to shareholders, with PetroTal establishing a regular annual dividend of 6.0c/share from Q1 2023, implying a 15% yield at current levels. As such, PetroTal offers investors regular drilling news flow, strong and growing production based on a material asset, significant cash flows underpinned by the variety of export routes, an established dividend, and a strong balance sheet. We have a positive outlook for the shares, and value them in line with our 102p total risked NAV

Added to holding...production increased, no debt, cash in bank, free cash flow & dividend 15% with p/e just 3, hedged oil at $65 and two brokers have a 100p+ target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1915033322092138930

An acquisition of Winterflood by CMCX would be a logical bolt-on deal. #CMCX recently signed a partnership with Revolut one of the world's most valuable digital banks & Tradingview to offer customers trading services using its CMC Markets Connect technology.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1913541363255148718

Totally agree Morbox, even with the Trump volatility for a couple of weeks AUM average is up and remains higher while the share price is strangely currently down, looks lke a typical market short term reaction without consideration to the overall sum of the parts. Fully expect market to recover and on current figures all suggests a share price closer to 200p+ should return over coming weeks .

Hedge funds globally have been whipsawed by volatile trading since Trump announced sweeping U.S. tariffs on April 2, clouding the global economic outlook and prompting recession fears.

The bulk of Man Group's quarterly trading statement covered the three months to end-March - before Trump's tariffs announcement - with assets under management rising to $172.6 billion from $168.6 billion at the end of 2024.

Man Group also reported net inflows of $3.6 billion in the three months to March 31

EMG (Mann group) reported higher assets under management for the March-end quarter, supported by $3.6 billion of net flows during the period - MAN GROUP PLC - REPORTS AUM OF $172.6 BILLION AS OF MARCH 31 ($167b previous estimate)

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1912759297970229589

Man Group EMG.L on Thursday reported higher assets under management for the March-end quarter, supported by $3.6 billion of net flows during the period

pril 17 (Reuters) - Man Group PLC EMG.L:

MAN GROUP PLC - 1ST QUARTER RESULTS

MAN GROUP PLC - REPORTS AUM OF $172.6 BILLION AS OF MARCH 31

MAN GROUP PLC - ESTIMATED AUM OF $167 BILLION AS OF APRIL 14