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Analyst at Shore Capital, said: "Though the statement makes to no reference to trading since the end of the first quarter, we suspect that the second quarter will have started well given tariff histrionics in early April.

"TP Icap's share price has been broadly rangebound over the last six months, having recent recovered ground since the market sell off in early April.

"We think the valuation is still undemanding in view of cash generation and case return prospects. If a potential delay in the timing of Parameta's listing results in share price weakness, we would see this as an opportunity."

Shore Cap has a 'buy' rating

5 brokers average target price 315p.

Total revenue grew 10% to £629m, the best quarter ever registered by the Group, benefiting from a period of heightened market volatility which was driven by the uncertainty of U.S. trade policies.

Global Broking revenue increased 14%, with the division performing strongly across all asset classes, capitalising on the exceptionally favourable market conditions.

Liquidnet delivered another strong quarter, with revenue up 16%.

Energy & Commodities (E&C) revenue was unchanged, in line with our expectations, reflecting a competitive hiring market for brokers in 2024.

Following a record performance in Q1 2024, including one-off revenue, Parameta Solutions revenue increased by 6% in Q1 2025.

PetroTal Provides Additional Details on $65 Million Term Loan to Finance Erosion Control Investments at Bretana

Rationale for the Term Loan

Although PetroTal remains well capitalized to execute its 2025 capital program, which includes investments in erosion control infrastructure, the Company has been evaluating alternate means of financing the project. PetroTal sees the erosion control project as critical infrastructure that will ensure the Company captures the full value of Bretana resource for years to come. However, these costs are ultimately expected to be non-recurring, and the Company acknowledges investor concerns that the project represents a drain on near-term free cash flow. With that in mind, this loan essentially ring-fences erosion control expenses within a credit facility, allowing PetroTal to repay project costs over the next four years on favorable terms.

There are no material changes to cost estimates for the erosion control project at this time; PetroTal continues to guide to total project costs of $65-75 million, of which $35-40 million has been budgeted for 2025.

The Term Loan has been established for the purpose of financing PetroTal's ongoing investments in erosion control infrastructure in the vicinity of the Bretana oil field; for the common benefit of the operations and the community;

· Drawable in two tranches ($50 million and $15 million), with total commitments of up to $65 million, for a 4-year amortizing term;

PetroTal has released its Q1 2025 results. These report strong Q1 production driving cash flows that have supported CAPEX during the period. The company continues to generate cash flow and to plan for recommencement of drilling in H2 2025, while retaining significant flexibility in this programme.

Q1 2025 results demonstrate ongoing cash flow supporting investment and shareholder returns. PetroTal has already reported Q1 2025 production of 23.3mbbl/d, a strong number based in particular on initial production from the recently drilled 21H, 22H, and 23H wells. This is today reported as having generated Q1 2025 revenues of US$97.7m (compared with our US$424.8m full year 2025 forecast), unit OPEX (including transport costs) of US$7.4/boe, EBITDA of US$71.9m (compared with our US$230.5m full year 2025 forecast), and free funds flow (which is EBITDA less tax, finance costs, and CAPEX) of US$48.2m. As such, these reported Q1 numbers represent a strong period of production ....

Existing guidance for PetroTal’s total 2025 CAPEX programme is US$140m, and the company expects to begin more drilling from H2 2025 on its new Los Angeles field, using its own rig, before reverting back to Bretana drilling at the end of 2025. The company retains discretion over this programme, however, and can respond to oil price changes as appropriate

continues to provide PetroTal with substantial funding to underpin both ongoing CAPEX spending and the quarterly dividend.  Dividend for Q1 2025 also confirmed at 1.5c/share. Alongside its Q1 results, PetroTal has also confirmed a 1.5c/share Q1 2025 dividend, to be paid during Q2. This is the company’s base quarterly dividend level established in 2023, and represents a strong 14.7% annual yield at current share price levels. The company has also announced today an expected renewal of its buyback programme when this expires in the coming weeks.  Full year production guidance maintained. PetroTal has existing full year 2025 production guidance of 21-23mbbl/d, and at the midpoint of this range and using a US$75/bbl Brent price, this results in guidance of US$438m revenue, US$245m EBITDA, and US$60m free funds flow (which is EBITDA less tax, finance costs, and CAPEX). Production guidance continues to be maintained, underpinned by the strong performance achieved during Q1 and capacity in existing wells (the company achieved 23.6mbbl/d production in April), alongside the expected benefit from new drilling in H2.

. PetroTal has hedged around 38% of its remaining 2025 production as of April, using a costless collar at US$65.0/bbl and US$82.5/bbl. This will already be beneficial at current oil price levels, helping reassure on cash flows for the rest of 2025.

We have a positive outlook for the shares, and value them in line with our 100p total risked NAV.

Good balance sheet. Flexible capex • 1Q25 production and net cash at the end of March had been previously announced. • PetroTal maintains a solid financial position with US$116.6 mm in cash. Additionally, the company has secured a term loan with a syndicate of Peruvian banks, with commitments of up to US$65 mm to finance the erosion project at Bretana. The interest rate is 8.65%; which compares favourably with other credit options available to the company. The loan terms do not impose any material restrictions on PetroTal’s ability to distribute dividends to shareholders.

At the current share price, the expected FY25 dividend yield is ~ 16%. We re-iterate our target price of £1.20

Other take aways from the 1Q15 results The initial tax payment was made in early April, and PetroTal is expected to pay ~US$40 mm in cash tax in 2Q25. At Los Angeles (Block 131) workover and acid stimulation program (up to four wells) is scheduled to begin by late June, running through September, with the goal of boosting production by ~500-1,000 bbl/d, bringing output to >1,000 bbl/d, up from 620 bbl/d in 1Q25. The US$140 mm capex program for 2025 currently includes four new wells—two at Los Angeles and two at Bretana—to support future production growth

'We are progressing strategic options for Parameta Solutions. Our focus is a listing in the United States, with the Group maintaining a majority stake. Should we proceed, with no certainty we will do so, the listing could occur as early as Q2 2025. Our priority is to create sustainable shareholder value and retain, for the long-term, the majority of any upside potential, while providing Parameta with a greater ability to grow on a standalone basis.

Our focus on productivity, contribution, and balance sheet optimisation, means we now expect to generate substantial cash over the medium-term. An update on the surplus cash to be made available to shareholders over time will be provided at our Interim Results, on 6 August 2025. In addition, should it go ahead, we would expect to return most of the proceeds of any Parameta listing to our shareholders.

We look to the future with confidence. Our market-leading broking businesses are well positioned to capitalise on ongoing market volatility. Our focus on diversification presents real opportunities, including the ongoing turnaround at Liquidnet and the upside potential at Parameta Solutions. We aim to grow our business, invest in key franchises, and return more cash to shareholders."

The Group expects to generate substantial organic cash in the medium-term. For business investment, debt reduction, dividend policy, more capital returns.

As is always the case, our outlook is largely subject to market conditions. Geopolitical tension, and the uncertain outlook for trade policies, inflation, as well as interest rate movements, should continue to drive volatility that is supportive for our business.'

Man Group Plc is in discussions to acquire credit firm Bardin Hill Investment Partners, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

A deal could be signed as soon as this month, Bardin Hill managed $3.3 billion in assets as of Feb. 28

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1921272452350656724

Man Group Plc is in discussions to acquire credit firm Bardin Hill Investment Partners, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

A deal could be signed as soon as this month, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. Representatives for Man Group and Bardin Hill declined to comment.

Higher rates, the banking industry’s retreat from lending and the opportunity for lucrative fees are attracting a raft of money managers into the $1.6 trillion private credit market, helping transform it into a mainstream offering.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-10/man-group-is-said-in-talks-to-acquire-credit-firm-bardin-hill

Just asked Grok and it said - There are no reports of new massive job losses planned by Harbour Energy in the North Sea oil and gas sector as of 2025

Andrew Neil is not often too far from a point or news line, the last cut for HBR in staff saved around £40 million anually in

2003.

A double whammy of misery for Ed Miliband today:

Ørsted said it has pulled the plug on the 2.4-gigawatt Hornsea 4 project off the east of England, blaming rising costs and increased “execution risk” — it underestimated the difficulty of installing the planned 180 giant turbines supposed to supply 2.6m homes.

And Harbour Energy is preparing massive job losses in North Sea oil/gas

https://x.com/afneil/status/1920051983626514644

Orstead will abandon a major offshore wind farm project in Britain, it said on Wednesday, citing a deteriorating global business environment for developing renewable energy.

Orsted's market value has fallen by around 80% from its 2021 peak as costs have risen, supply chains have been disrupted and U.S. President Donald Trump's opposition to offshore wind has sapped investor confidence.

he Danish company said cancelling Hornsea 4 would cost it up to 5.5 billion Danish crowns ($837.85 million) in the form of breakaway fees and write-downs, but that the value it would create had fallen

"The combination of increased supply chain costs, higher interest rates, and increased execution risk have deteriorated the expected value creation of the project," CEO Rasmus Errboe said

Orstead will abandon a major offshore wind farm project in Britain, it said on Wednesday, citing a deteriorating global business environment for developing renewable energy.

Orsted's market value has fallen by around 80% from its 2021 peak as costs have risen, supply chains have been disrupted and U.S. President Donald Trump's opposition to offshore wind has sapped investor confidence.

he Danish company said cancelling Hornsea 4 would cost it up to 5.5 billion Danish crowns ($837.85 million) in the form of breakaway fees and write-downs, but that the value it would create had fallen

"The combination of increased supply chain costs, higher interest rates, and increased execution risk have deteriorated the expected value creation of the project," CEO Rasmus Errboe said

Largest even ...Miliband in further trouble....

Renewable champion Orsted cancels what was going to be one of the largest UK windfarms (Hornsea 4 with ~2.4 GW capacity). It said the project didn't make economic sense, despite a 15-year government contract to sell electricity (in 2025 money, CfD for the project is ~£83/MWh)

So, obviously, the project needs even a higher guaranteed electricity price (and that means, a CfD above, or well above, current average wholesale prices). If the UK governments delivers that extra subsidy, how that would be compatible with lowering costs for consumers?

https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/1920021546258645400

Renewable champion Orsted cancels what was going to be one of the largest UK windfarms (Hornsea 4 with ~2.4 GW capacity). It said the project didn't make economic sense, despite a 15-year government contract to sell electricity (in 2025 money, CfD for the project is ~£83/MWh)

o, obviously, the project needs even a higher guaranteed electricity price (and that means, a CfD above, or well above, current average wholesale prices). If the UK governments delivers that extra subsidy, how that would be compatible with lowering costs for consumers?

https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/1920021546258645400

Oil and Gas surprising the markets ⬆️

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1919700405778346093

New broker note out, Serica well positioned in current climate to go alone...and an attractive dividend ahead of potential catalysts........ target price 270p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1919694516920992212

Serica goes alone no merger with Enquest as per broker note yesterday ''As a standalone entity, Serica remains very attractive at current levels...there are few companies with clear growth potential of such scale. #SQZ offers substantial upside even under the penal UK fiscal regime, due to the large pool of tax losses (>$1bn) which generate a much lower effective rate of tax for the company.....BUY Target Price 281p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1918311852486132042

As per broker note yesterday -

''As a standalone entity, Serica remains very attractive at current levels, with the shares tracking below Brent, despite UK gas prices remaining much higher y-o-y. The substantial proportion of revenues come from gas production and this offers an implicit hedge against lower oil prices

It is possible that the company will also be able to benefit from some flush production once the Triton wells are brought back onstream post repairs/maintenance.

With a stable production base (34.6kboepd in 2024) and a portfolio of opportunities that could take sustained production rates over 40kboepd over the medium term, there are few companies with clear growth potential of such scale.

Furthermore, Serica should deliver this growth without additional funding – even at current prices. We remain bullish on the outlook for Serica – either as a standalone entity or combined with EnQuest – as it offers substantial upside even under the penal UK fiscal regime, due to the large pool of tax losses (>$1bn) which generate a much lower effective rate of tax for the company.....BUY Target Price 281p

Along with much of the rest of the UK E&P sector, Harbour shares have suffered in recent weeks on the general stock market downturn, and weakness in oil and gas prices. While the outlook for oil remains a little volatile, with Saudi and OPEC+ decisions on production somewhat uncertain, we believe Harbour shares are at attractive levels. With its diverse production base, sensible balance sheet, controlled CAPEX levels, and significant hedging book, the company has been set up to maintain its dividend over the coming years, and this implies a yield of 13% at current levels

Conclusion:

Harbour’s Wintershall acquisition is the company’s most ambitious yet and has driven significant production growth and asset diversity to help underpin the dividend. The company’s ability to progressively reduce its debt and maintain dividends, alongside invest in the portfolio and drive overall positive news flow, is also significantly enhanced by the new diversity of the asset and project portfolio. The shares are below our 272p total risked NAV, and even trading at that level would still see them at a discount to peers on EV/EBITDA, and a 7.5% dividend yield. In anticipation of ongoing cash flows and dividends, further deleveraging, and overall positive news from the portfolio, we have a Buy recommendation and 272p target price.