Member Info for surprised

Jefferies raises Harbour Energy price target to 290 (240) pence - 'buy'

CHRISTINE HODGSON (Chair) purchased 10,000 shares @ £28.80 Total £288,000

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/WTB/directorpdmr-shareholding-he37dr6mke0aehd.html

The market has been unkind to the owner of Premier Inn, not because of its half-year figures but fears over the November budget

.......Shares aren’t down to the half-year figures — because there really isn’t much wrong with them..... Yet, you don’t have to be the Whitbread boss, Dominic Paul, to spot that, despite a 7 per cent drop in adjusted profits to £316 million pre-tax, there’s a fair bit to like about the figures. Premier Inn is outperforming the market in both the UK and Germany. Revenue per available room is now on the up — by 3 per cent in both markets. And the profits fall was largely down to lower food and drinks sales, which should surprise no one.

It’s due to Paul getting the builders in for a growth plan that includes converting loss-making restaurants adjacent to hotels into 3,500 extra UK hotel rooms: all part of a strategy to lift annual profits by “at least £300 million” ...To boot, Whitbread’s had its property estate independently revalued. Split 50:50 between freehold and leasehold, it includes 846 UK Premier Inns, with the latest valuation of “£5.5 billion to £6.4 billion” about 10 per cent above 2018’s, despite hotel sales. The result? Whitbread’s asset backing now tops its £5 billion market cap.

So, why the share price fall? Two words: Rachel Reeves. Paul reckons investors in UK consumer stocks are jumpy over two things: any signs of “higher inflationary cost pressures”, which Whitbread alluded to, “and what is going to happen at the budget”. The chancellor’s payroll fireworks put a dent of up to £60 million in the group’s profits last time, which it has offset, but only at the price of cutting hiring plans by “quite a few thousand jobs”

And, as Paul puts it, neither UK companies or the country can afford a rerun. “You cannot just keep taxing businesses. We have got to be the beating heart of a growing economy. If taxes go up, responsible businesses will cut costs, staff and investment and you won’t get growth.” It shouldn’t need saying. But until the chancellor works that out, it won’t take much for investors to punish UK consumer stocks — even ones with as much room for share price growth as Whitbread.

https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/whitbreads-worried-hotel-investors-are-rachel-reevess-fault-c2pdtctdq

Executives ‘swapping five-star hotels for Premier Inns’

Mr Paul said Whitbread was working with most business travel agencies to boost sales. This means businesses can book Premier Inn hotels through their internal systems when planning a work trip. He said Premier Inn benefitted from “uncertain economic times, which is what we’re in right now”.

On Thursday, Whitbread said it would seek to find cost savings of between £65m and £70m this year, up from previous guidance of £60m, currently planning to open a series of new UK Premier Inn hotels, which will mean 500 extra rooms by the end of the year.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/16/businessmen-swapping-five-star-hotels-for-premier-inns/

Increased holding on the pull back this week -See Stock report with excellent value, quality, momentum rankings plus an overall combined rating of 99 (out of 100).......sp was sitting at 237p prior to recent third party placing at 213p.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1967299390353416331

Took today's opportunity to increase holding

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1977643886752551177

Here comes the volatility.....

US President Donald Trump threatened a “massive increase” of tariffs on goods from China, citing recent “hostile” export controls on rare-earth minerals, adding that “there are many other countermeasures that are, likewise, under serious consideration.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-10/trump-says-he-sees-no-reason-to-meet-xi-threatens-new-tariffs?srnd=homepage-uk

Bloomberg states investors are piling in betting that stock-market volatility will increase TCAP typically benefits from market volatility...broker has 327p target

Stock market report, rankings and #TCAP business description 👇

TP ICAP Group plc is a provider of financial markets infrastructure and data. It connects buyers and sellers in global financial, energy, and commodities markets. Its segments include Global Broking, Energy & Commodities, Liquidnet, Parameta Solutions, and corporate. The Global Broking division is an inter-dealer broker that services clients in rates, foreign exchange and money markets, equities and credit products. The Energy & Commodities division operates in all markets, including oil, gas, power, environmental tax credits and digital assets. The Liquidnet division is a multi-asset, agency execution specialist operating in 57 equity markets. The Parameta solutions division includes its data and analytics business, providing over-the-counter market data. It helps clients to make efficient investment, portfolio analysis, valuation, risk management and compliance decisions. The Company also delivers real-time pre-trade bond market data from many sell-side banks to buy-side clients

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1974759532078248161

Panmure Broker report out today with target price of 1100p - PayPoint announces the investment of £43.9m by IDS to acquire 49% in Collect+. This should provide scope to deliver more Royal Mail services through the Collect + network. The deal will also strengthen the network and help the strategy for Collect + to be the leading OOH network. PayPoint also announces a 50p special and 12 for 13 consolidation bringing the in year return to 19% of the market cap.

Over the next 12 months, the intention is to expand the rollout of Royal Mail over the counter services through the network, including the launch of selfservice kiosks during Q1 2026 initially to deliver the same services. Kiosks will initially be a self-serve version for the same services to improve efficiency in the store.

The deal will also strengthen the network and help the strategy for Collect + to be the leading OOH network

BUY and a target price of 1100p

PayPoint is today announcing a special dividend of 50p per share combined with a share consolidation of 12 for 13, Special Dividend to Shareholders on the register on 17 October 2025.Board anticipates the transaction as a whole to be EPS enhancing

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1972922784465428677

A drop from a high of 850p twelve weeks ago to 648p last week, are we about to see a recovery back up to new highs...brokers have targets from 885p to 1100p

(stock report)

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1972382682127728743

Lloyds Banking Group PLC has revealed another 49 bank branches will shut across the UK

"Alongside our app, our customers can use any Lloyds, Halifax or Bank of Scotland branch, the Post Office or banking hubs for their everyday banking, and deposit cash at over 30,000 PayPoint locations."

Stockopedia review -

Today’s Capital Markets Day set out where the company plans to go from here. Management’s 2026 to 2030 roadmap targets production growth to around 200,000 boepd, cumulative operating cash flow of $5 to $6 billion, and a cut in operating costs towards $10 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe). Around half of operating cash flow will be reinvested, with 120 to 150 new wells and up to three new gas projects in the pipeline.

Another piece of good news from this morning’s announcement is that shareholders are firmly in focus, too. A new dividend policy commits to returning 40 to 50% of free cash flow over the cycle, about $1 billion by 2030. There is also a hard $120 million per year floor (20 cents per share annually), and the Q3 2025 dividend will be raised 10% to 5 cents per

CEO Roger Brown put it plainly: “The performance of our new offshore assets in the first nine months that we have operated them, provides a clear indication that we have acquired a fantastic group of assets along with a highly competent and skilled workforce. "Today we set out our roadmap to 2030, our vision for the medium term which will see us materially grow production and cashflow to drive significantly enhanced shareholder returns.

Broker Capital Access also seems to share the optimism, noting after the H1 results: “We have rebuilt our financial model for the company and are now reinstating forecasts where we expect rapid growth in profit and cash flow. Most striking is the strength of free cash flow generation that could see the company debt free by 2027… Our forecasts confirm the transformational impact of the MPNU acquisition with revenue tripling and net cash flow quadrupling between 2024 and 2027..''

We are not spoilt for choice when it comes to strong Oil & Gas stocks on the UK market. And while Seplat does operate in a more volatile geopolitical climate in Nigeria, and still contains notable debt on its balance sheet, the company stands out as one of the strongest all-round fundamental stories available. Seplat’s scale, reserves, profits, cash flows, and shareholder returns are all firmly moving in the right direction

This is a solid update overall. It shows clear ambition from the management team and confidence in their ability to deliver on the new targets. It also keeps shareholders front of mind with a generous dividend policy, while providing further proof of the transformational impact of Exxon’s Nigerian assets.

You now have a company with an entirely different scale and growth profile compared to just a year ago. Despite the operational risks inherent in both the industry and the Nigerian operating environment, Seplat’s balance sheet discipline, substantial free cash flow generation, and upgraded dividend policy make a compelling case. From today’s update, the company embarks on a new phase of growth. On fundamentals alone, Seplat stands out as one of the strongest Oil & Gas names on the UK markets

The company anticipates generating cumulative cash flow from operations between $5.0 billion and $6.0 billion, a 2.5-3.0x increase

A new dividend policy commits to returning 40% to 50% of Free Cash Flow, targeting a cumulative cash dividend of $1.0 billion, underpinned by a minimum $120 million annually (20c/shr) if Brent averages over $50/bbl.

The Q3 2025 dividend will increase by 10% to 5.0 c/shr

Seplat Energy Plc announced ambitious targets at its Capital Markets Day, including a 50% increase in production volume by 2030 and a significant rise in cash flow from operations, while further reducing operating costs.

A new dividend policy aims to return 40-50% of free cash flow to investors, with a minimum annual distribution of $120 million.

The updated Competent Person’s Report shows substantial increases in reserves and resources, strengthening Seplat’s position in the energy sector. Discussions are ongoing with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited regarding a potential sell-down of 10% in their joint venture, that would not effect dividend plans.

SEPL remains cash flow positive even with oil at $50

The most recent analyst rating on SEPL is a Buy with a 390p to 450p price target

The world needs to develop new oil and gas resources just to keep output flat amid faster declining rates at existing fields, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday in a major shift in its narrative from 2021 that ‘no new investment’ is needed in a net-zero by 2050 scenario. Even with projects ramping up and others approved for development and not yet in production, a large gap still exists “that would need to be filled by new conventional oil and gas projects to maintain production at current levels

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-Reverses-Course-on-Oil-and-Gas-Investment.html

Oil stocks not to be underestimated as the world needs more oil & gas. Demand set to increase, yet capital spend on new fields has reduced. Quality establised oil stocks offer free cash flow, high dividends and the potential for growth as demand increases. ITH divi 8.75%

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1967936559061024820

Today's stock report and metrics, a near 10% dividend with excellent value and overall rankings (99/100)...........brokers have a 550p target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1967866026210820330

The Myth of Peak Fossil-Fuel Demand Is Crumbling

The use of oil and gas will continue to climb for decades, according to a draft of the International Energy Agency’s annual report

For the last few years, climate and energy policymakers have convinced themselves the world was inexorably moving away from fossil fuels. Breaking news: It is not.

There was debate about the speed of the subsequent decline, but the conclusion was the same: The end of the fossil-fuel era was within reach. But that tenet, key to achieving the ambition of net zero by 2050, wasn’t as cast in stone as its backers thought.The views of the world’s richest nations, shows the alternative — decades more of robust fossil-fuel use, with oil and gas demand growing over the next 25 years

...for oil, the consumption curves show continued growth, including even in the 2040s. “oil remains the largest single fuel” in 2050, the draft report says

The world isn’t performing an “energy transition” but an “energy addition,”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-11/peak-fossil-fuel-demand-is-a-crumbling-myth

The Myth of Peak Fossil-Fuel Demand Is Crumbling

The use of oil and gas will continue to climb for decades, according to a draft of the International Energy Agency’s annual report

For the last few years, climate and energy policymakers have convinced themselves the world was inexorably moving away from fossil fuels. Breaking news: It is not.

There was debate about the speed of the subsequent decline, but the conclusion was the same: The end of the fossil-fuel era was within reach. But that tenet, key to achieving the ambition of net zero by 2050, wasn’t as cast in stone as its backers thought.The views of the world’s richest nations, shows the alternative — decades more of robust fossil-fuel use, with oil and gas demand growing over the next 25 years

...for oil, the consumption curves show continued growth, including even in the 2040s. “oil remains the largest single fuel” in 2050, the draft report says

The world isn’t performing an “energy transition” but an “energy addition,”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-11/peak-fossil-fuel-demand-is-a-crumbling-myth

The Myth of Peak Fossil-Fuel Demand Is Crumbling

The use of oil and gas will continue to climb for decades, according to a draft of the International Energy Agency’s annual report

For the last few years, climate and energy policymakers have convinced themselves the world was inexorably moving away from fossil fuels. Breaking news: It is not.

There was debate about the speed of the subsequent decline, but the conclusion was the same: The end of the fossil-fuel era was within reach. But that tenet, key to achieving the ambition of net zero by 2050, wasn’t as cast in stone as its backers thought.The views of the world’s richest nations, shows the alternative — decades more of robust fossil-fuel use, with oil and gas demand growing over the next 25 years

...for oil, the consumption curves show continued growth, including even in the 2040s. “oil remains the largest single fuel” in 2050, the draft report says

The world isn’t performing an “energy transition” but an “energy addition,”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-11/peak-fossil-fuel-demand-is-a-crumbling-myth