Member Info for surprised

A surprise further pull back 😳with oil close to $100 and gas up 55% too, possible energy shortages on the horizon and disruption to supply forecast to last weeks/months even if middle east tensions stopped today....goes ex divi tomorrow for 9p a share

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/2036731380998996426

Energy shortages could ​hit Europe by next month, Shell (SHEL.L), opens new tab CEO Wael Sawan said on Tuesday, adding that securing adequate ‌energy supply was critical to national security.

Countries cannot have national security without energy security, Sawan said, adding that Shell was trying to work with governments to help them address the energy crisis, including with storage and purchasing. The Middle East conflict, now in its fourth week, has already affected ​supplies of jet fuel, with diesel set to be next, followed by gasoline as summer driving season ​gets underway in the Northern Hemisphere, Sawan said.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ceraweek-energy-security-key-national-security-shell-ceo-says-2026-03-24/

UK life and pensions provider's FY 2025 Operating Capital Generation rose 19% yr/yr

Adjusted operating profit for FY 2025 increased 42% yr/yr

Company completed HSBC Life (UK) acquisition and announced Scottish Widows Europe SA purchase

Outlook

Chesnara expects Solvency Coverage Ratio to reduce to ~180% post-acquisition, Own Funds to rise to ~£1bn

Company expects assets under administration to increase to ~£20bn after Chesnara Life integration

Acquisition of Scottish Widows Europe SA expected to add €250m cash generation, €100m in first five years

Oil & gas to stay higher for longer. More than 40 energy assets across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged by the war, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains.

The damage to oil fields, refineries and pipelines means it will take some time for them to come back online.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/2036001535524548941

Ithaca Energy is pleased to announce its third interim dividend for 2025 of $200 million, representing $0.1209 per ordinary share. The third interim dividend will be paid on 16 April 2026 to shareholders on the share register on 27 March 2026

Yaniv Friedman, Executive Chairman, commented: "Ithaca Energy delivered another year of excellent operational and financial performance in 2025. Our acquisitions in Seagull and Cygnus contributed accretive growth, which along with organic investment in the period, achieved an exit rate of 148 kboe/d and allowed us to enter 2026 with significantly increased production capacity.

"In the West of Shetland, we saw material project activity, including at Rosebank where we are progressing in line with our development timeline towards first production in 2026/27. We also saw significant progress on the maturation of the Cambo and Tornado projects, with all activities supporting a potential FID within 12 months.

"We maintained our strong financial position throughout the year, supported by strong cash flow generation, a disciplined hedging strategy, and a successful bond issuance and an upsizing of the RBL facility, giving us an improved liquidity position. We remain committed to delivering attractive shareholder returns and I am pleased to announce the third tranche of our 2025 dividend of $200 million, taking our total return to shareholders for FY 2025 to $500 million, in line with our stated target. Moving forward, as a stronger business, we are raising the targeted shareholder returns range from 15-30% to 20-35% post-tax CFFO, with a 30% target ranging between $470-520 million in FY 2026, reflecting the strong continued performance of our diverse asset base which also supports our material capital programme as we continue to invest in organic growth opportunities.

"We enter 2026 with considerable momentum and strength, focused on upholding our strategic, operational and financial discipline, and well positioned to pursue value-driven growth and deliver sustainable returns."

Excellent operational performance supported average production of 119 kboe/d and 2025 exit rate of approx. 148 kboe/d, demonstrating increased installed production capacity into 2026

· Strong financial performance with adjusted EBITDAX of $2.0bn (2024: $1.4bn), net cash flow from operations of $1.7bn (2024: $0.9bn) and free cash flow of $683.3million (2024: 260.8 million)

· Enhanced liquidity position of $1.5bn (2024: $1.0bn) providing material financial firepower to support future growth

· Successful execution across the pillars of the Group's growth strategy, supporting value creation and attractive shareholder returns:

- Material targeted organic investment supporting increased production capacity, reliability enhancement and efficiency focus alongside incremental investment in high return wells

- Material progression of West of Shetland development strategy with Rosebank entering the final stages of development towards first production in 2026/27, and the continued maturation of Cambo and Tornado through key regulatory milestones towards final investment decisions within 12 months

Attractive dividend distributions to shareholders

An excellent headline to start off the full-year results at this major international broker - Record results, with adjusted EBIT ahead of expectations, announcing an £80m share buyback

Adjusted EBIT is up 10%, while real EBIT is up 14%:

They say that consensus expectations for adjusted EBIT was £345m, so they are 1% ahead of that. Announcing an £80m buyback, the CEO says 'This strong performance reflects the disciplined execution of our strategy. We grew the business, maintained strict cost control and continued to drive operating leverage. This is evident in our increasingly diversified buy-side and sell-side offering, with both Global Broking and Liquidnet delivering record profitability'

The £80m buyback would eliminate 4% of shares outstanding at the current market cap - not bad.

The acquisition of Vantage Capital Markets was recently announced - looks highly complementary. “Strong broker recruitment in Energy & Commodities” - this division saw a revenue decline in 2025, but I presume it will be busy in 2026?

Ongoing expansion of Liquidnet and investment in the data business Parameta, but there will be no IPO of Parameta in the short-term (“the context remains challenging for an IPO”).

£35m of annualised savings across the group, £10m ahead of plan, with a total of £50m targeted by 2027.

Liquidnet and Parameta are both growing revenues at modest rates: 4% at Liquidnet, 5% at Parameta.

Current trading and outlook = Expectations are for EBIT of £361m (range £347m to £370m).

It’s worth reflecting on the statement that they are expecting to do this despite an FX headwind of up to £10m.

I interpret that very positively, as FX movements are of course beyond their control.

Hopefully, for them, the dollar can recover later in the year and enable them to beat expectations.

Checking the GBPUSD exchange rate, I see that it’s up by 3.4% over the past year (from about 1.30 to 1.34). It makes sense that this would feed through to TCAP’s results (60% of its revenues are denominated in USD, versus only 40% of costs).

StockRank is strong at 86

P/E is modest at about 8x even after today’s gains.

Highly reputable businesses (this is a giant in global financial markets, even if it’s not a household name).

Nice mix of brokerage and data services.

Beating expectations for last year and trading in line for the current year, despite an FX headwind (suggesting very strong underlying trading).

Earnings forecasts have oscillated within a narrow range, implying good visibility:

The effect of heightened volatility in oil markets is impossible to predict with certainty but it’s probably not a bad thing for TCAP.

The profit outlook has improved quite a bit since November's update.

Record Group revenue up 6%

• Record Global Broking revenue growth up 10%

• Energy & Commodities revenue down 2% (-3% reported), in line with the Group’s expectations

• Liquidnet revenue up 4% following a record 2024. Strong performance across multi-asset agency brokerage2 up 10%

Parameta Solutions revenue up 5%

Final dividend 11.6 p up 3%

New buy back programme.

Brokers have 306p+ target pior to todays results, expect an upgrade as volatile markets typically benefit Tcap and energy/commodities trading will have seen an uplift in past months....a lot to like

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/2031998355354571252

2026 stands to be another strong year for Seplat, with a number of projects underway to boost production in line with the company's aim to reach 200k boepd by 2030.

CG increase target price for Seplat to 570p and re-iterate a Buy rating, highlighting a very attractive 33% upside

.......and we also with CA broker with a 629p target.

Revenue $2,726 million up 144.2%

Adjusted EBITDA of $1,275.4 million, up 137% on prior year

Cash from operations of $1,165.6 million, up 276% on prior year

Operating cost of $15.7/boe down 5% on prior year

Net debt at year end 2025 down 25% YoY

4Q 2025 declared dividend of USD 8.3c/shr, up 11%

2026 Outlook & Guidance

• Production guidance of 135-155 kboepd, mid-point represents a ~10% increase on 2025.

• Crude & Condensate: flat YoY; new well inventory offset by planned downtime for strategic maintenance and integrity activities.

• NGL: +85% YoY, effective 1Q 2026 with EAP complete.

• Gas: +30% YoY, ANOH contribution

Broker has 629p target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/2026920552124895256

Today's chart & stock report -👇 quality 92/100 ✅ Overall stock rank 80/100 ✅

still in well oversold territory, yesterday's drop was on 'fear' of AI not fundamentals, rsi just 17 !

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/2021529025555181831

Stock report - Quaility 99/100 ✅Momentum 98/100✅Overall Stock Rank 93/100✅ Nine-month revenue rises 28% to USD4.67 billion from USD3.34 billion, driven by expanding customer numbers, higher data usage, and continued momentum in its Airtel Money business. Operating profit climbs to USD1.53 billion from USD1.08 billion, while pretax profit more than doubles to USD1.02 billion.....Broker Deutsche Bank target is 430p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/2020781673743253593

Stock report 👇- Quaility 96/100, Value 91/100...dividend 11% .....initial target 225p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/2019713085716787527

Stock report 👇momentum 85/100 and an overall stock ranking of 93/100 reflects recent broker target upgrades of 550p and 629p on increased production, profits and dividends (currently 4%)

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/2019714764189143426

With the latest broker ratings issued by Cannacord at 550p and Capital Access at 629p there is huge scope for a major re rating here and it very well looks like it is underway. No doubt some profit taking will appear on the way, however, the trend is firmly to the upside .....

I put the results into A1 (Grok), here is the reply --- These are strong results for Airtel Africa, reflecting robust underlying performance in a high-growth market like sub-Saharan Africa, where demand for data and mobile money services remains very high.The key highlights from the nine months to December 31, 2025, show significant acceleration compared to prior periods:Revenue rose 28% year-over-year to $4.67 billion (from around $3.64 billion in the prior year's nine months, based on historical comparisons, with reported growth boosted by some currency appreciation). In constant currency terms, growth was around 24.6%, which is an improvement over earlier periods (e.g., prior nine-month constant currency growth was in the 20% range or lower in some cases).

Operating profit increased to $1.53 billion from $1.08 billion, demonstrating strong operational leverage.

Pretax profit more than doubled to $1.02 billion, aided by $99 million in derivative and foreign exchange gains (versus a $153 million loss previously).

Basic EPS jumped sharply to 13.1 cents from 4.4 cents.

EBITDA grew strongly (around 35.9% to about $2.28 billion in related reports), with margins expanding to nearly 49%, indicating improved cost efficiency and profitability.

Customer metrics were solid: customer base up ~10% to 179.4 million, data users up 14.6%, smartphone penetration at 48.1%, and higher data usage driving ARPU gains.

Airtel Money crossed 50 million (actually ~52 million) subscribers, with annualized processed value exceeding $210 billion—showing continued momentum in fintech ahead of its planned 2026 listing.

These figures represent a clear step up in momentum. For context:In the prior year's nine months (to Dec 2024), reported revenue was lower (around $3.64 billion in some periods, with constant currency growth ~20%), and profitability was more muted due to currency devaluations (especially in Nigeria).

Full-year FY2025 (ending March 2025) revenue was ~$4.96 billion with modest reported decline but ~21% constant currency growth.

Recent half-year (to Sept 2025) showed ~26% reported revenue growth to ~$2.98 billion.

The current nine-month results show acceleration in constant currency growth, margin expansion, and a swing from FX losses to gains, supporting the CEO's comments on strategy strength, accelerated investments (e.g., network/fiber expansion), and capturing market opportunities.Media coverage and announcements describe these as "strong results" with "robust growth" in data and mobile money, underscoring positive trends. While telecoms in Africa face ongoing challenges like currency volatility and competition, these numbers indicate Airtel Africa is executing well and positioning strongly for future growth, particularly in digital services. Overall, yes—these are considered strong by industry standards.

Airtel Africa reports strong growth, with nine-month revenue to December 31 rising 28% to USD4.67 billion from USD3.34 billion, driven by expanding customer numbers, higher data usage, and continued momentum in its Airtel Money business. Operating profit climbs to USD1.53 billion from USD1.08 billion, while pretax profit more than doubles to USD1.02 billion, supported by USD99 million in derivative and FX gains versus a USD153 million loss a year earlier. Basic earnings per share jump to 13.1 cents from 4.4 cents. The group says customer growth, increased smartphone penetration and stronger data ARPU underpin the performance, with Airtel Money surpassing 50 million subscribers and annualised processed value exceeding USD210 billion. CEO Sunil Taldar says: "These results highlight the strength of our strategy, with strong operating and financial trends across the business. During the quarter, we accelerated investment to enhance coverage and data capacity while also expanding our fibre network. Coupling this investment with innovative partnerships, strengthens our customer proposition and positions us to capture the considerable growth opportunity across our markets."

IP3LY - contact your broker of the account your shares are held in and request the shareholder card, it's often sent within days, depending on your broker.

Hi Gruyere..today's new broker note is based on today's tading update (18 pages) and a target of 1100p.....a lot to like

Panmure note out on today's trading update, they like it.. - Target price 1100p