Member Info for surprised

The high level of recurring revenues together with the high free cash flow these generate, plus a third of the market cap in net cash, means that the current valuation looks more than underpinned, even if their strategy to drive sales growth fails to deliver.

''Cavendish upgraded EPS by 22%, and my feeling is that the company will come in slightly above the broker EPS number when results are released in April. The net cash balance at £4.7m came in ahead of estimates and underpins a valuation that remains very low ....''

''.......The total addressable market for their software solution is huge, so there is a certain amount of frustration in the market with the slow progress in delivering a sales uplift. A sentiment I share. However, with long sales cycles and weak market conditions in 2025, it shouldn’t be surprising that it will take some time for additional sales efforts to be seen in the numbers. If they can generate meaningful sales uplift, the recurring nature of the wins mean that Cavendish’s 260p Price Target doesn’t look out of place''

That should read... Research tree

Re seach tree.....lse will not publish address in full

Part of broker note 👇

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/2010650732391997639

updating forecasts - 12 january 2026 seplat - nigeria’s leading independent energy company

we are updating our estimates to incorporate the strong 9m25 results, the guidance given at the capital markets day (cmd) and the positive impact of conversion of the onshore production to petroleum industry act (pia) terms from 2026, partly offset by lowered oil price assumptions.

that results in significant increases to our prior forecasts for net profit and dividend, notwithstanding an average cus$5/bbl reduction in our brent price forecast through 2027.

seplat continues to trade well below peer average ratings and has given up some of its gains post the cmd despite the sale of maurel et prom’s 20.7% stake to heirs at 305p.

our revised corporate level net asset value (nav) calculation computes to 463p on a 15% discount rate increasing to 629p

on a 10% discount rate, 65% and 124% higher, respectively, than the current share price.

at heart, seplat offers a giant, under-developed, low cost resource base of 2,305 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), rapidly rising production, a conservative balance sheet, and a clear distribution policy promising a minimum current yield of over 5% in a country with improving investment metrics yet it is trading on a discounted valuation.

https://*********************/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/seplat-energy-plc/research/capital-access-group/seplat-energy-updating-forecasts/23_2026011202203174163/12249694-a397-4a66-b791-9cbe6d8a006b

JEFFERIES RAISES SHELL TO 3400 (3200) BUY

Nigerian billionaire Tony Elumelu has significantly expanded his energy empire after his company, Heirs Energies Limited, acquired a 20 percent stake in Seplat Energy Plc for $496 million, making it the largest shareholder in one of Nigeria’s premier independent oil and gas producers.

The landmark acquisition, announced on December 31, 2025, sees Heirs Energies purchasing French firm Maurel & Prom’s entire 20.07 percent holding in Seplat, comprising 120.4 million ordinary shares valued at 305 pence each.

The deal represents one of Nigeria’s most significant energy sector transactions this year and marks a notable shift toward greater indigenous ownership of the country’s strategic oil and gas assets.

With this transaction, Heirs Energies now holds the commanding position among Seplat’s shareholders, surpassing institutional investors including Petrolin Group (13.77 percent), Sustainable Capital (9.7 percent), Professional Support (8.5 percent), and Allan Gray Investment Management (5.61 percent).

Strategic significance for both parties

For Elumelu, the banking magnate turned energy investor, the acquisition advances his long-standing vision of African ownership and management of the continent’s natural resources.

“This acquisition reflects our strong belief in Africa’s ability to own, develop, and responsibly manage its strategic resources,” Elumelu said. “It is a long-term investment in Nigeria’s and Africa’s energy future.”

Olivier de Langavant, CEO of M&P’s, reflected on the company’s 15-year journey with Seplat: “We are incredibly proud to have supported Seplat’s journey over the last 15 years and its transformation into a leading energy company in Nigeria across both oil and gas. This investment has also proven to be a great success for M&P, delivering very strong returns since inception in 2010.”

He also expressed confidence in the transfer to Heirs Energies, a subsidiary of Heirs Holdings, describing them as “another strong, long-term shareholder.”

Seplat’s assets, production

Seplat Energy represents a substantial addition to Heirs Energies’ portfolio. The company boasts 2P reserves of 1.043 billion barrels of oil equivalent as of December 2024 and maintains working interest production of 135.6 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day as of October 2025.

The acquisition positions Heirs Energies, which only began operations in 2021, alongside one of Nigeria’s most established independent producers. The company already operates Oil Mining Lease (OML) 17 in the Niger Delta, producing over 50,000 barrels of oil daily and 120 million cubic feet of gas, with reserves exceeding 1.5 billion barrels of oil and 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas.

https://businessday.ng/news/article/tony-elumelus-heirs-energies-becomes-seplats-largest-shareholder-in-500m-deal/

A few snippets of the investment case highlighted by Stockopedia recently -- With a StockRank of 99/100 and a cash-rich balance sheet, investors have started to realise that this is a high-quality, cash-generative business on a value multiple. After a significant period of consolidation, management is starting to focus on growth again. Their content management business counts some of the most well-known organisations in the world as its customers, such as the UN. While in its content lifecycle and royalty management division, existing customers include some of the world's largest publishing houses. While historically the focus has been on the book publishing industry, the TAM for its solutions is huge, also encompassing music and games publishers worldwide.

Quality at a Very Reasonable Price: Since the current management team has driven a turnaround in the business, the Return on Capital Employed has averaged over 30%, suggesting a significant competitive advantage. Conservative accounting means that almost all earnings have converted to free cash flow, making the recent Cash Flow Return on Invested Capital over 40%.

It is rare for a software company to trade at a single-digit P/E, let alone one with such strong Quality metric..

There are several reasons that Ingenta looks likely to be an outperformer in 2026: - EPS up 38% to 5.86p. This is 71% of the full-year forecast....Contract Wins: In their half-year results, Ingenta made several statements that bode well for the end of this year and into the next...

The cash-generative nature of the business has meant that the cash pile has risen to £3.9m at the half-year..The business remains cash generative ..dividend yield of c.4%, which is amply covered by its Fee Cash Flow. Brokers have a 260p target.

www.stockopedia.com - stocks for xmas into 2026

part copy of stock report 👇

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/2006680434713763877

So we have a lower tax rate on assests now due to the pia change (85% reduced to 60% and to be lower still over coming months) providing increased profits and cash flow and we now have our new larges share holder Heirs having taken their shares yeserday at 305p a share, displaying great confidence in Seplat's prospects and with a potential bonus if performance hits future targets...sets a great benchmark for 2026 and with brokers Cannacord setting a 550p target.

Here is a better link with the M & P press release

www.maureletprom.fr/en/investisseurs/communiques-de-presse

That first line should have read (close not lose !)- Maurel & Prom S.A. (“M&P”, the “Group”) announces that on 30 December 2025 after market close it entered into a binding agreement in relation to the sale of its entire shareholding of 120.4 million shares, representing a 20.07% interest, in Seplat Energy Plc

Maurel & Prom S.A. (“M&P”, the “Group”) announces that on 30 December 2025 after market lose it entered into a binding agreement in relation to the sale of its entire shareholding of 120.4 million shares, representing a 20.07% interest, in Seplat Energy Plc

The sale is at a price of 305 pence per share, corresponding to a total consideration of $496 million

M&P has been one of Seplat’s three founders and its largest shareholder since inception in 2010, and has

supported the company throughout its development into a leading Nigerian energy player with a diversified

portfolio across oil and gas, playing a key role in Nigeria’s energy security.

Olivier de Langavant, Chief Executive Officer of M&P, declared: “

We are incredibly proud to have supported

Seplat’s journey over the last fifteen years and its transformation into a leading energy company in Nigeria

across both oil and gas. We would like to warmly congratulate and thank Seplat’s management team and

successive boards of directors for their outstanding performance over the years and wish them every success

for the future, as we are convinced that there is still much more to come. This investment has also proven to

be a great success for M&P, delivering very strong returns since inception in 2010. We believe that now is

the right time for M&P to monetise this position and further focus on direct investments in oil and gas assets,

in line with a growth strategy that we plan to accelerate. We are also very pleased to transfer our stake to

Heirs Energies, a subsidiary of the leading PanAfrican investment company Heirs Holdings, we are confident

that Seplat will continue to thrive with the support of another strong, long-term shareholder

file:///C:/Users/quiet/Downloads/sale-of-m-ps-20-07-interest-in-seplat-energy-to-he.pdf

Breaking news - Maurel Et Prom Sells Stake In Seplat Energy To Heirs Energies (Africa's largest indigenous owned energy company, based in NIigerea) For $496 Mln

SALE OF M&P’S 20.07% INTEREST IN SEPLAT ENERGY TO HEIRS ENERGIES FOR $496 MILLION, SALE IS AT A PRICE OF 305 PENCE PER SHARE

Taken some ING - broker has 260p target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/2005955956975210498

Great find Raxfactor

breaking news - NNPC Ltd, told reporters that the company has completed welding the main line of the $2.8 billion Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) pipeline, including the critical River Niger crossing. The gas processed by Seplat(ANOH) is pumped along pipelines (like ANOH-OB3) into the broader NNPC network for nationwide gas supply...increased production, distribution and cash flow/profits

Combined with the 25% pia reduced tax rate on assets recently announced and SEPL has started well after the xmas break.Broker Canaccord has target sp of 550p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/2005582117565087931

Transitioning to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) fiscal regime is intended to result in a lower tax bill for Seplat Energy compared to the previous Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) regime. This change is a key benefit of the PIA and a primary reason Seplat pursued the conversion. The transition is expected to reduce the tax burden on its converted assets significantly

The conversion of Seplat Energy's legacy onshore assets to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) fiscal regime is expected to reduce the effective tax rate on those assets from 85% to 60%, thereby significantly increasing post-tax cash flow

Conversion to the PIA fiscal regime has been an important focus for Seplat

Roger Brown, Chief Executive Officer of Seplat Energy, said - ''We recognise the enhanced value creation opportunities that we can benefit from, post conversion. PIA conversion was factored into our recent medium-term guidance and lays a path to improved profitability and cashflow margins in our onshore business."

Corvex Management LP on Thursday said it has taken a 6.1% (10 million shares ) stake in Whitbread PLC, saying the hospitality firm trades at a discount not only to its "fundamental value" but at a discount to the value of its UK freehold hotel portfolio alone.

Corvex urged Whitbread to commission a third-party strategic review of its capital allocation priorities.

Corvex is an alternative asset and investment management firm based in New York. It was founded in 2010 by Chief Investment Officer Keith Meister and its website says Covex engages in fundamental investing "with the ability to become active in situations to create asymmetric risk/reward opportunities".

Whitbread is a Bedfordshire-based hotel and restaurant owner, whose lead business is the Premier Inn chain in the UK and Germany.

"In our view, the current share price appears to ascribe no value to several meaningful components of the company's business," Corvex said, "including its UK operated leasehold portfolio, its German hotel assets, and its development properties currently under construction and not yet trading."

Corvex said it had not "predetermined any particular outcome" to the strategic review. However, it said, "we believe the board of directors should review the company's current five-year capital plan, which contemplates approximately GBP3.5 billion of investment - an amount approaching the company's current market capitalisation."

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/corvex-management-takes-6-stake-in-whitbread-wants-strategic-review-ce7d50dcdb81f624

The US is preparing a fresh round of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to increase the pressure on Moscow should President Vladimir Putin reject a peace agreement with Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter.

The US is considering options, such as targeting vessels in Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers used to transport Moscow’s oil, as well as traders who facilitate the transactions, said the people who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-17/us-readies-new-russia-sanctions-if-putin-rejects-peace-deal?srnd=homepage-uk

Instead of relying on information about the rent these businesses pay, the amount of income the property generates and the costs involved in running it is used to work out a rental value. The idea — deeply unpopular in some quarters — involves working backwards from a property’s income to figure out what a reasonable rent would be.

“Since 2015, we’ve had more than a dozen major business rates reviews, yet none has tackled structural flaws in the receipts and expenditure method. Why did it take average airport increases of nearly 300 per cent before action was considered?

Airports, event arenas and hotels are among those whose rates are linked to this approach, and pubs are subject to a similar one called “fair maintainable trade’’. Since the previous revaluation was based on April 2021 estimates, when much of the economy was closed due to the pandemic, many of these operators are facing enormous increases from April thanks to a revaluation which took place in more normal trading times.

The government has now pledged to review this curiosity of the system but is facing questions over why this was not done before the current revaluation period given the damage it risks doing.

https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/labour-promised-to-scrap-business-rates-so-why-are-they-going-up-t9c556flg