Member Info for surprised

Triton ramp-up to full production delayed but very high production at BKR

• Following the July production restart at Triton FPSO, ramp-up to the steady-state plateau of has been delayed into August.

Several minor issues only became apparent once hydrocarbons were reintroduced to the FPSO system, having been undetectable during the prior shutdown period, Additional remedial work required a brief production pause to carry out necessary repairs

With Bittern now back online and Evelyn and Gannet expected to follow shortly, net production at Triton is set to reach 25 mboe/d in the near future.

• It is expected that the production plateau will exceed this level once the new wells are then brought onstream later in August.

• The delay has not resulted in any incremental costs. • Production from other assets remains robust, approaching ~30 mboe/d versus our 2Q25 estimate of ~25 mboe/d—seemingly driven by a current strong performance at BKR. As a result, despite timing at Triton, FY25 production guidance has been revised only marginally from 33–37 mboe/d to 33–35 mboe/d.

No changes to forecasts are warranted ahead of the half-year results on 5 August.

We maintain our expectation for total 2025 dividends of £0.16 per share (implying a ~9% yield).

• We reiterate our target price of £2.70 per share.

If Carlsberg did RNS ....

Results -

Revenue $1,398 million up c.231% on prior year

• Unit production operating cost of $12.5/boe below guidance of $14-$15

• Adjusted EBITDA of $735 million, up 175% on prior year

• Cash generated from operations of $766.2 million, up 239% on prior year

• Cash capital expenditure of $96.5 million (6M 2024: $102.4 million).

• Balance sheet strong, end-June cash at bank $419.4 million (3M 2025: $334.6 million),

Net Debt at end-June of $676 million down 9.5%

2Q 2025 declared dividend of US$ 4.6c/share, dividend to be revised September in line with recent company progress

Broker has 450p target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1950441976932803024

Join us on Wednesday, July 30, for our Half-Year 2025 Financial Results presentation. Our executive team will share insights on our performance and progress for the first half of 2025.

Join here: https://lseg.group/4lToNU0 at 1 PM WAT/BST

https://x.com/SeplatEnergy/status/1948310051577360668

Donal Trump tells Starmer and Miliband - '

'North Sea Oil is a TREASURE CHEST for the United Kingdom. The taxes are so high, however, that it makes no sense. They have essentially told drillers and oil companies that, “we don’t want you.” Incentivize the drillers, FAST. A VAST FORTUNE TO BE MADE for the UK, and far lower energy costs for the people!''

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114935401735258022

Added to ...#PAY 731p.. got my initial entry wrong here🙄doubled holding now 😳5.4% divi pa, goes ex divi 28/08/25, broker has 1100p target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1950134838960259257

Bought some PAY, pulled back from 870p recently and broker has 1100p target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1945818629334868089

PAY new addition to the pf and stock report

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1945898382905520213

.''We have both the capacity and financial strength to take on these assets and run with them. It’s like the stars are aligning — the outlook is even better than what we had before.''...broker has 450p target

https://businessday.ng/energy/article/seplat-says-indigenous-capacity-innovation-investor-confidence-boosting-fortunes-of-energy-sector/

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1944664719253500018

Seplat Energy #SEPL is one of the fastest-growing companies on the London market right now, having experienced a 350% revenue surge.

Output is up 167% Y/Y.

Debt is falling. Dividends are rising.

Here’s why investors are paying attention 👇

Seplat is a Nigerian oil & gas producer, dual-listed in London & Lagos.

But this isn’t the same Seplat you knew a year ago…

In 2024, it acquired ExxonMobil’s Nigerian shallow water assets (SEPNU) – a transformational deal.

The impact:

- Production: +167% Y/Y

- Q1 2025 revenue: $809m (+350%)

- Q1 EBITDA: $401m

- Net debt down to $747m

- Dividend up 28% quarter-on-quarter

Seplat is now:

- The largest independent energy producer in Nigeria

- Scaling up its gas business to meet clean energy goals

- Ending routine flaring

- Positioned as a long-term energy transition player

SEPLAT is one of Stockopedia Top ten stocks

https://x.com/KeelanCooper7/status/1943683250246869226

Seplat says indigenous capacity, innovation, investor confidence boosting fortunes of energy sector

“If you look at the trajectory, I would personally say that the outlook is very excellent, and we are well-positioned for a transformative oil and gas industry,” Roger Brown stated.

Nigeria is rich in both oil and gas resources — with over 200 trillion cubic feet of gas — we are in the right place. We are also seeing international oil companies exiting the onshore and shallow water areas and transferring them to indigenous players. We have demonstrated both the capacity and financial strength to take on these assets and run with them. It’s like the stars are aligning — the outlook is even better than what we had before.

https://businessday.ng/energy/article/seplat-says-indigenous-capacity-innovation-investor-confidence-boosting-fortunes-of-energy-sector/

2/06/25 - Goldman Sachs raises Man Group price target to 260p and buy rating.

9/07/25 - Jefferies raises Man Group price target to 240 (235) pence - 'buy'

Hi Dumbly

You are correct the EIA is a farce and has heldp up developments, investment etc. hence the need for a major review and ditching of the initial interpretation. Fully expect it to be 'put aside' to allow new drilling etc and get business investing again.

Operating and regulatory environment potentially improving ...

New Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) rules published on 19 June now require the inclusion of Scope 3 emissions. The significance of these emissions must be evaluated in the context of global climate goals. This is particularly relevant as UK-produced oil and gas is likely to be associated with lower lifecycle emissions than equivalent imports— Norway being a potential exception. The upcoming development approvals for Jackdaw and Rosebank could serve as a key sentiment gauge for the sector. Meanwhile, the UK government has indicated that reforms to the oil and gas tax framework may be necessary. Currently, profits are taxed at an effective rate of 78%, including a 38% windfall levy.

A reduction in the windfall tax to 28% would increase our valuation for Serica to £3.04 per share

Start up at Triton in line with expectations • Repairs and scheduled maintenance work on the Triton FPSO have been completed, and the restart process for production operations is now underway. • This is consistent with the management’s indicated timing of “around end of June” as stated in the AGM update. • Production is expected to ramp up progressively, reaching steadystate levels later in July. • No further shutdowns are planned for Triton in 2025. We continue to anticipate 2H25 production in the range of 41–47 mboe/d. Before shutdown, Triton was producing ~25 mboe/d. Upon restart in mid2025, adding the W7z and EV02 wells could increase Triton’s output to 30 mboe/d, with the tie-in of BE01 in early 2026 also boosting production

With extensive inspection and maintenance completed, and both compressors coming on line, we believe Triton is well positioned to put the troubles behind it and deliver more stable and resilient performance than in the last year. • The share price could benefit from a progressively more supportive business environment in the North Sea. We maintain our expectation for total 2025 dividends of £0.16 per share (implying a ~10.5% yield), and we re-iterate our target price of £270

And ....breathe 😃

And yes I was surprised by the drop too :-)

Wasn't it just , impossible to call tops and bottoms, however, this move down is at odds with all we know.....

Added a few more at 229p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1938235004787794120

Bloomberg- Shell state no merger talks taking place with BP.

Shell in Early Talks to Acquire Rival BP

A deal for BP, worth roughly $80 billion, would be a landmark combination of two supermajor oil companies

Shell is holding early stage talks to acquire rival BP in what would be the largest oil deal in a generation, people familiar with the matter said.

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/shell-in-early-talks-to-acquire-rival-bp-2233591a

CMCX is typically a beneficiary of high market volatility as it increases the opportunity in the market for contracts for difference traders and spread betters. This increases activity among existing clients and attracts new potential customers, driving increased trading volumes. Volatility increases the potential for larger spreads, increasing revenue per trade. Results to end March - Underlying EBITDA up 12% to £103.4m, Profit before tax jumps 33% to £84.5m. Operating expenses down to £230.2 million (FY 2024: £237.9 million) Final dividend up 37% to 11.4p, goes ex divi 10/07/25, holds almost half mcap in cash. Trumps tariffs started in April adding to market volatility, July 9th is another round of tariffs and the current geopolitical events are adding to volatilile markets, broker has now raised target to 380p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1936865336772506040