Member Info for surprised

EMG is in oversold territory (charts) a fair valuation and recovery closer to 200p+ is expected over coming weeks. 8% divi, Free Cash Flow generator and cash balance of £225m EMG is an active investment management company. It's technology platform facilitates alpha generation, portfolio management, trade execution, operations, compliance, risk management and accounting......Broker has a 300p+ target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1912068940433367098

High volatility increases the opportunity in the market for contracts for difference traders and spread betters. This increases activity among existing clients and attracts new potential customers, driving increased trading volumes. Volatility increases the potential for larger spreads, increasing revenue per trade

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1912044607967301787

Online trading and investment platform CMC Markets (CMC) has extended its partnership with trading data aggregator and analytics service TradingView, promising an “enhanced trading experience” for CMC’s Australian clients.

The partnership will enable CMC clients to tap TradingView’s charting and analysis tools, offering traders a “dynamic space for executing trades, exchanging ideas, developing strategies, and leveraging advanced tools like custom indicators and automated trading bots”, CMC said.

In return, TradingView users will gain access to CMC’s “competitive pricing” on more than 10,000 financial instruments.

The expanded partnership could deliver a significant boost to CMC’s client base, with access to TradingView’s community of more than 100 million traders worldwide.

https://financialnewswire.com.au/investment/cmc-markets-to-tap-real-time-trading-data-from-tradingview/

.'sales to double from $916mn to $2.3bn in 2025, and again in 2026. Even with oil in the low $60s the company remains in the money & Gas prices having gained significantly. The next dividend will pay a special of 3.3¢ (5p) with an ex-dividend date of 8th May.'

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1910582525971345601

Bank a high yield and sales growth with this sleeping giant

Given the backdrop, it may seem like an odd time to put forward an oil and gas company with significant assets in the Delta. Well, yes. But the gas market is strong, and Seplat is a major gas producer with a good dividend.

Investors have already started jumping aboard, pushing up the company’s market value from £600mn at the start of 2023 to over £1bn by the end of 2024. The share price peaked at 235p in November, but Seplat has largely followed the market down in recent months, alongside other mid-caps.

However, Seplat’s growth prospects have the potential to push its market cap well beyond £1bn. Production is expected to rise from about 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2024 to around 130,000 boepd in 2025.

Citi analysts expect sales to more than double as a result, from $916mn last year to $2.3bn in 2025, and then again in 2026. The impact of Exxon’s assets on the bottom line is already being felt. In the 19 days in 2024 that they were part of the business, they contributed $100mn to adjusted Ebitda, out of a group total for the year of $539mn.

Even with an oil price in the low $60s per barrel, the company remains in the money. Gas prices have gained significantly in the past six months because of higher demand during a cold northern hemisphere winter and a strong liquefied natural gas market, with US prices up 29 per cent in the year to date.

The deal

The portfolio has several different parts. There are onshore oil and gas wells across seven licences, and Seplat owns 50 per cent of the ANOH gas terminal. Through the Exxon deal, it also has a 40 per cent interest in four offshore licences, an operating hub not far off the coast and three operated export terminals.

The bigger picture, however, is a portfolio of cash-generating assets that, with some more investment, will push earnings higher. “We’ve got large proven oil and gas accumulations in the licence area and I think this really is… a bit of a sleeping giant,” said chief executive Roger Brown

Seplat has boosted the dividend and will pay a special of 3.3¢ for 2024, with an ex-dividend date of 8 May. A capital markets day later in the year should bring a new policy with it. ...............the company deserves to re-rate given the massive expansion that has come through the Exxon deal.

Another strong quarter • 1Q25 production was 23,280 bbl/d, comprising 22,660 bbl/d at Bretana and 620 bbl/d at Los Angeles.

• 1Q25 production at Bretana was ~1 mbbl/d above our expectations. The high production reflects the strong performance of the recent wells. Well 23H produced 3,363 bbl/d in March, reaching a maximum daily high of 5,110 bb/d. Well 22H, which was brought onstream in mid-January, produced an average of 4,386 bbl/d in March.

• The company has re-iterated its FY25 production guidance of 21,000 bbl/d to 23,000 bbl/d. • Field work for the erosion project is expected to commence at Bretana next month. Drilling at Los Angeles is expected to start in early 2H25. PetroTal has significant flexibility to adapt its capital program to changes in oil pricing. Additional colours could be provided with the 1Q25 results in mid-May

. • At the current share price, the expected FY25 dividend yield is greater than 16%.

• As we reduce our assumptions for Brent price over 2Q25 and 3Q25 from US$75/bbl to US$60/bbl, we have changed our target price to £1.20 per share

Balance sheet-

The total cash position at the end of March was of US$113.6 mm, of which US$103 mm was unrestricted. This exceeded our expectations of approximately ~US$100 mm. Additionally, accounts receivable, less accounts payable, amounted to US$27 mm, outperforming our forecast of a US$3 mm deficit. Overall, the balance sheet at the end of March was ~US$40 mmm ahead of our expectations

TCAP have £1,399m cash, pay 7% divi, 5 brokers have a 315p target price,

what do #TCAP do? see stock report below👇they trade execution, pre-trade and settlement services and data-led solutions include global broking, energy and commodities, liquidnet, and parameta solutions. The global broking segment services clients in rates, foreign exchange and money markets, equities and credit products, The energy and commodities segment operates in various markets, including oil, gas, power, base metals, precious metals, soft commodities and digital assets. Its liquidnet segment covers a broad range of asset classes, providing a client base of hedge funds, asset managers and asset owners

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1910235624470151561

Https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1910027521615180217

CMCX have half mcap in cash and trade CFDs and financial spread betting on a range of underlying shares, indices, foreign currencies, commodities, and treasuries. Its CFDs are traded worldwide; It serves retail and institutional clients through regulated offices and branches in about 12 countries.. previously trading at over 330p ......see stock report attached for more details

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1909980161673396630

Hege fund manager on Bloomberg this mornng said he is buying cheap stocks, we need energy, everyone needs energy and once trade talks start and tariffs ease the market will bounce large and quickly, short term volatility is the price for long term gains

Hege fund manager on Bloomberg this mornng said he is buying cheap stocks, we need energy, everyone needs energy and once trade talks start and tariffs ease the market will bounce large and quickly, short term volatility is the price for long term gains

Boss of Seplat wants to ‘demystify’ Nigeria for investors

Roger Brown says discount on major oil producer’s shares is unwarranted.

The boss of London-listed Seplat wants to “demystify” Nigeria for international investors after completing a tortured billion-dollar deal with ExxonMobil that has transformed the company into one of country’s biggest oil producers.

We’ve got a big discount on our share price for the Nigeria [factor],” the British executive told the Financial Times. “The only way to pierce that perception is just . . . keep growing production and keep talking about it.”

The $1.28bn acquisition of Exxon’s business, which was completed in December, has made Seplat one of Nigeria’s biggest domestic producers with an asset base of 11 onshore oil blocks, 48 oil and gasfields, three export terminals and five gas processing facilities.

The deal will enable it to expand production from 50,000 barrels a day to roughly 120,000 b/d before September, when Brown plans to address shareholders at an investor day in London. “We’ll try to lay out the future and we’ll try to demystify what’s going on in Nigeria,” he said

The transaction has consolidated Seplat’s position among a number of indigenous Nigerian oil companies, including Oando and Heirs Energies, that now control almost all of the country’s onshore and shallow water oil assets following the exit of international players including Shell, Exxon and Addax Petroleum.

The deals have transformed the shape of the sector in a positive way. “It was an amazing process to have all of those deals unlocked and approved and it’s great for Nigeria [as] you’re going to start to see Nigeria [oil production] grow,” he said.

In a further sign of change that was welcomed by many in the sector, Tinubu this week sacked NNPC’s entire 11-person board and replaced its long-serving chief executive with a former Shell engineer Bashir Ojulari. Former Seplat chief Avuru is one of the new board members appointed.

Over the next five years Brown intends to expand production beyond 110,000 boe/d through further drilling, increase the volume of gas Seplat suppliers to the Nigerian market, while also beginning liquefied natural gas exports.

https://www.ft.com/content/4952e4ff-5439-4a8d-9134-b1cf70f1a310

Took some more at 186p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1909152550521090473

IC article - Funding provider Duke Capital, a company that takes equity stakes in profitable, owner-operated businesses and provides long-term capital in exchange for a percentage of future revenues, is looking to attract third-party capital and transition to a self-funding capital light business model.

This seems a natural progression for a group that has established an eight-year track record and proven the resilience of its business model in a challenging economic and market environment. Duke has closed 22 deals of which seven have been bought out very profitably.

The clear benefits of this strategy will be to eliminate cash drag, deliver accretive fee-based revenue and reduce Duke's dependence on the UK public equity markets, thereby minimising dilution and enabling the group to execute strategic growth opportunities more rapidly and at scale. Duke has approached potential capital providers and received indicative term sheets from Tier-1 capital providers on potential new funding, with further term sheets expected in due course.

Duke completed a £23.5mn equity raise in November 2024 to provide additional capital to its current partners, thus enabling them to deliver bolt-on acquisitions to build their cash profits and increase the group’s equity participation where possible.

Duke’s portfolio includes £218mn of hybrid credit investments with 14 capital partners, £5.4mn of loan investments with two partners, and £16.9mn of equity investments with 11 partners. Analyst Andrew Renton at house broker Cavendish believes the equity holdings could have an unrealised value of more than £50mn (9.8p) in exit premiums, a sizeable sum in relation to Duke’s market capitalisation of £157mn (30.7p) and its proforma net asset value (NAV) of £185.4mn (36.4p).

Adjusting for the post period end equity raise, proforma net borrowings of £55.2mn equate to 30 per cent of NAV although gearing will rise to around 42 per cent when all the surplus cash is deployed. Free cash flow (FCF) will improve, too, as recurring quarterly revenue of £6.5mn in the latest quarter continues to grow. Cavendish predicts FCF of £13mn in the 12 months to 31 March 2025 will rise to £17.3mn in the new financial year, so easily covering the £14mn (2.8p) cash cost of the dividend on the enlarged share count. In other words, the 0.7p a share quarterly dividend underpinning the 9.1 per cent dividend yield is secure....

Neil Johnson, CEO of Duke Capital, said: "Despite the UK's stickier inflationary pressures, we are pleased to report that we are on track to achieve a solid year-on-year increase in recurring cash revenues for Q4 FY25. This performance reflects the strength of our business model in navigating challenging market conditions, while our follow-on investment in BPVA underscores our commitment to supporting our portfolio. With a strong balance sheet, we are confident we can deliver long-term, sustainable value for shareholders."

Added to holding at 27.34p - Duke expects to achieve recurring cash revenue* of £6.5 million in Q4 FY25. This represents a 12% year-on-year increase on Q4 FY24 (£5.8 million)

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1907063727964234131

Sp up 8% following today's CEO presentation and outlook for 2025/26 with improved production and potential M&A. Reduced divi from 18% is prudent to 13% yield & remains attractive. Stock metrics 🟢

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1907049467573883280

“if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States, There will be a 25% to 50% tariff on oil.'' Trump also mentioned considering "secondary tariffs" on Iran & threatened to bomb the country if it doesn't sign a deal re nuclear weapons.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1906432011939594610

Part of Zeus report -

Changes to the UK’s energy profits levy impacts investment plans: We expect the recent decision by the UK government to review scope 3 emissions guidance and the long-term industry tax structure to result in an improved investment environment, potentially bringing contingent barrels back into investment plans.

Well supported dividend offers attractive yield: Our estimated 2025 free cash flow is 1.8x the dividend and is covered by free cash flow over 2025-27......

Conclusion: Harbour’s Wintershall acquisition is the company’s most ambitious yet and has driven significant production growth and asset diversity to help underpin the dividend. The company’s ability to progressively reduce its debt and maintain dividends, alongside invest in the portfolio and drive overall positive news flow, is also significantly enhanced by the new diversity of the asset and project portfolio. The shares are below our 272p total risked NAV, and even trading at that level would still see them at a discount to peers ...In anticipation of ongoing cash flows and dividends, further deleveraging,

and overall positive news from the portfolio, we have a Buy recommendation..

A 90p dividend upcoming, goes ex divi 24/04/25, excellent stock metrics, cash £492m, profits +19%, order book £11.4bn +28%.....median broker consensus is 4000p+

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1904504147614773550

And a 90p dividend upcoming as MGNS goes ex divi 24/04/25