Member Info for surprised

CMCX typically enjoys market volatility..........

Market Volatility set to continue

President Donald Trump said he intended to send letters to trading partners in the next one to two weeks setting unilateral tariff rates, ahead of a July 9 deadline to reimpose higher duties on dozens of economies.

“We’re going to be sending letters out in about a week and a half, two weeks, to countries, telling them what the deal is,” Trump told reporters Wednesday

“At a certain point, we’re just going to send letters out. And I think you understand that, saying this is the deal, you can take it or leave it,” he added

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-11/trump-says-he-will-set-unilateral-tariff-rates-within-two-weeks?srnd=homepage-uk

Stock report (part of) below for Seplat that has gained attention and traction again in the past two months. Seplat Energy is a Nigeria-based independent energy company with 48 producing oil and gas fields, five gas processing facilities, and three export terminals. Its portfolio consists of interests in seven oil and gas assets in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Sales are expected to double from $916mn to $2.3bn in 2025, and again in 2026. Even with oil in the low $60s the company remains in the money with the added bonus of gas profits too, current dividend yield of approx 5% expected to increase

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1932136084055728457

Blue Harbour Capital continues to increase holding, now at 22% - Blue Harbour focus on companies that it believes are undervalued with potential for increased value. They are actively increasing their stake in PTAL, indicating their focus on companies with potential for significant change and added value.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1931968767744950483

After a crazy drop on very good figures to end of March, we also have the next quarter to look forward too with the increased volatility in markets from April following Trumps tariffs that would be expected to add further to CMCX profits looking forward, I added some more at 244p on the basis the figures below are very good and likley to be even better ahead and a nice divi increase as well

Underlying EBITDA up 12% to £103.4m,

Profit before tax jumps 33% to £84.5m.

Operating expenses down to £230.2 million (FY 2024: £237.9 million) ..

Final dividend up 37% to 11.4p

Added some more at 244p

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1930537879731667431

I wonder if the 'market' was reading the same positive rns as me, profits up, costs down, divi up and further profitability expected from April with market volatility - Underlying EBITDA up 12% to £103.4m, Profit before tax jumps 33% to £84.5m.Operating expenses down to £230.2 million (FY 2024: £237.9 million) ..Final dividend up 37% to 11.4p

and wit

Crazy opening price as dropped to 233p , taking out a load of 'stops'🤪....volatility since April will add further to #CMCX profits, expect market to hoover up cheap shares

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1930523843845632254

These are the results to March, since April Trumps tariffs have created the volatility that boosts CMCX trading and profits so fully expect futher profitabilty ahead...

Rns results- Underlying EBITDA up 12% to £103.4m, Profit before tax jumps 33% to £84.5m.Operating expenses down to £230.2 million (FY 2024: £237.9 million) ..Final dividend up 37% to 11.4p

Record net operating income of AU$106.3 million (FY 2024: AU$85.1 million) in Australian stockbroking, with double-digit growth in active clients and new accounts

· Interest income of £42.5 million (FY 2024: £35.0 million) is up 21%, driven in part by strong performance from our Treasury Management and Capital Markets division

· Underlying EBITDA up 12% year-on-year to £103.4 million (FY 2024: £92.7 million), reflecting strong underlying profitability alongside improved operating leverage

· Profit before tax of £84.5 million (FY 2024: £63.3 million), with margin of 24.8% (FY 2024: 19.0%) reflecting robust net operating income, disciplined cost management and lower one-off charges

· Operating expenses, excluding variable remuneration, were £230.2 million (FY 2024: £237.9 million) as the Group maintains a focus on delivering margin expansion

· Non-recurring charge of £4.3 million relating to customer remediation in Australia following an industry-wide review into margin netting - provision expected to be fully utilised in FY 2026

· Final dividend of 8.3 pence per share (FY 2024: 7.3 pence) taking dividend for the full year to 11.4 pence per share (FY 2024: 8.3 pence), up 37% year-on-year

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1930512263175098631

Goldman Sachs raises Man Group price target to 260p and buy rating.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1929463329526776298

TP ICAP said on Monday that it has bought Neptune Networks, an independent financial data company co-owned by a consortium of investment banks, for an undisclosed sum.

Neptune delivers high-quality, real-time pre-trade bond market data from many sell-side banks to buy-side clients, the interdealer broker said.

"TP ICAP will bring together Neptune's extensive proprietary data network with Liquidnet's electronic credit trading platform, creating a unique, full service, global Dealer-to-Client (D2C) credit business," it said.

At launch, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citi, Credit Agricole CIB, Deutsche Bank, ING, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS - the bank shareholders - will own a 30% stake in the new business.

TP ICAP said this ownership structure is intended to ensure that Liquidnet and the bank shareholders are "resourced and incentivised to grow the business".

Chief executive Nicolas Bretea said: "Neptune is an exceptional platform with deep connectivity on both the sell-side and buy-side. With our partners, we plan to enhance and grow Neptune's core data business, strengthening its relevance to the buy-side via Liquidnet's electronic credit trading platform.

"By combining Liquidnet's extensive client reach with leading liquidity providers, we can seamlessly and discreetly connect the sell-side and buy-side to unlock exciting potential, positioning us well to drive a step-change in fixed income markets and liquidity."

Divi $.069 approx 5.1p

Current stock report and ratings 👇..............broker has 270p target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1927650247255200178

'Barclays says oil demand continues to surprise to the upside and refining margins at 18-month highs indicate underlying fundamental strength

It adds that "the wave of negative sentiment surrounding the oil market is misguided and short term in focus"

The broker highlights that non-OPEC supply growth is falling sharply and OPEC+ spare capacity is starting to decline, potentially leading to limited accessible capacity by 2027

The broker sees Shell and Harbour Energy as the stocks currently offering near term momentum'

Broker note out...

No cash tax is currently due on Triton production, making it disproportionately cash generative. This bodes well for strong cash flow generation in 2H25, once Triton is fully back online

We continue to forecast that the aggregate FCF from 2025 to 2027 will be equal to the current market cap.

We continue to expect that Serica could distribute a total of £0.16 per share in dividends in 2025, representing a yield of 11.4%.

We re-iterate our target price of £2.70

Maintenance work at Triton remains on track to restart production around the end of June, with the addition of new wells from the Guillemot North West and Evelyn fields providing the potential for production from the Triton Hub alone to surpass the 25,000 boepd net to Serica delivered earlier in the year. This should support significant cash generation in the second half of the year and beyond.

Free cash flow for the year set to be boosted by receipt of tax rebate of $71 million

total ring-fence tax loss balances in USD to over $1.3 billion CT, $1.2 billion SCT, and $63 million EPL - Labour aint getting many SQZ profits anytime soon :-)

In order to enhance Serica's corporate profile and broaden the Company's access to a wider pool of UK and global investors, Serica has initiated workstreams to facilitate a move from the AIM to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange in Q4 2025

The green wing of the Labour party wants to move away from fossil fuels into renewables, hydrogen and carbon sequestration. Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, represents that camp. Unfortunately, the government has embraced that view: It has promised to “manage existing oil and gas fields for their lifespan,” but it’s “committed not to issue licenses to explore new fields.”

Others, including officials in the UK Treasury, take a more pragmatic approach, recognizing that the economy will need oil and gas for decades to come. I agree: It’s better to pump those fossil fuels at home, where they generate wealth, jobs and tax revenue, than import them, where the profit goes to someone else. Norway is an example: It’s expanding its North Sea oil industry, while also embracing the energy transition faster than many others. For that to happen, the British North Sea, which is more mature as a basin than the Norwegian portion, needs lower taxes and the ability to drill new oil and gas fields. If not, its decline would accelerate notably.

The Labour government has demonstrated it can be practical, for example, by approving a huge expansion of London’s main airport. Prime Minister Keir Starmer should recognize that the North Sea deserves its Heathrow moment. In this case, windfall taxes should be the starting point.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-19/north-sea-the-uk-is-taxing-an-oil-windfall-that-doesn-t-exist?srnd=homepage-uk

The UK Is Taxing an Oil Windfall That Doesn’t Exist

Let common sense prevail in the government about the North Sea.

What’s an “unusually high” oil price?

The answer will dictate the moribund British oil industry’s future. Once a source of national pride and economic security, the North Sea today faces a grim future under the weight of inflated taxes targeting unusually high prices.

In May 2022, weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed Brent crude to $139 a barrel, the government, then controlled by the Conservative party, slapped a windfall tax on producers. The Energy Profits Levy took the North Sea petroleum industry’s tax rate to 65%. It was supposed to continue until the end of 2025. But soon after, the government hiked the tax again — to 75% — and delayed its sunset until 2028. Finally, last year, the Labour government increased the rate to 78% and extended it to 2030.

UK crude oil production has plunged to a 48-year low

The impact has been devastating. Historic names of the North Sea are announcing they will shut down all production far earlier than expected. Others are cutting spending and firing workers. Oil output has fallen to a 48-year low.

Now the government wants a rethink: a new system that adapts to different price levels, providing certainty to companies and their investors. Thus why it’s asking what unusually high prices mean, so it can create a tiered rate. The fiscal review is part of a broader consultation about the North Sea, where green policy, energy security and tax revenue collide.

Everyone involved in the ongoing consultation, from oil companies to green activists, is coming up with their own answers. Surely, there’s a mathematical formula that solves the question of what unusually high prices are. But there’s also common sense.

Well, look at the market now and you won’t see obscenely high oil prices. In nominal terms, Brent is changing hands at around $65 a barrel, the same level as 20 years ago. Adjust the price to account for the inflation and, in real terms, oil is today cheaper than it was in the mid-1980s. Simply put, the UK is taxing a windfall that doesn’t exist.

The government should recognize it and, at the very least, reduce the rate; better even, eliminate the levy. If it wants to hit fossil fuel extraction with high taxes, irrespective of the prices, then it should make its case; so far, it hasn’t. Waiting to act until 2030, when the levy is supposedly expiring, would be too late.

The taxation review is one of the three consultations the UK government has launched that would define the North Sea for the rest of its existence .

May 14, 2025 at 5:21 PM

Seplat Energy Plc, Nigeria’s largest oil and gas explorer, expects first-half revenue to exceed last year’s $1.1 billion after ramping-up production.

“Our revenue last year was $1.1 billion. In the first quarter, our revenue was $809 million, so in the second quarter, it will likely exceed the total revenue for all of last year,” Chief Executive Officer Roger Brown told investors at an annual general meeting in Lagos on Wednesday.

Seplat has seen a significant boost in production since acquiring assets from the Nigerian unit of Exxon Mobil Corp late last year. It predicted at the time that the deal could nearly triple output to more than 200,000 barrels a day.

To guard against a global oil slump, Seplat has hedged five million barrels of crude per quarter at $55 a barrel and initiated cost controls to protect the business, Brown said.

US trade tariffs and higher OPEC+ output have caused oil prices to fall 11% this year to $66.27 per barrel.

The hedging allows Seplat to sell crude at the pre-determined price and volume in 2025, even if oil prices fall below the threshold.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-14/seplat-sees-first-half-revenue-topping-last-year-s-1-1-billion?srnd=homepage-africa

Seplat expects first-half revenue to exceed last year’s entire total $1.1 billion. First quarter revenue was $809 million, second quarter to exceed the total revenue for all of last year states CEO after ramp in production. Seplat has hedged five million barrels of crude per quarter at $55 a barrel. The hedging allows Seplat to sell crude at the pre-determined price and volume in 2025, even if oil prices fall below the threshold.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1922705720568336416