Member Info for surprised

Oil down 2.% ($67) ahead of Sunday's OPEC meeting, some sources concerned of another hike in production.

No discussions have taken place between members yet.

USA tightens pressure on Iranian oil and Russia's production expected to fall 6% in September. A lot of moving parts ahead of OPEC meeting this weekend and oil slightly lower ahead of meeting, oil stocks typically down 1.5% to 4% in current trading.

Offshore Energies UK warns that without a competitive fiscal regime, the UK will face a strategic exodus of critical supply chain capability as companies invest oversea, the group urges the government to replace the windfall tax as early as next year to unlock additional capital investment and reduce the country's energy import gap.

Economist Simon French advises government - 'No-one credible believes the nonsense that there is no trade off between Net Zero & growth. So SACK your energy minister ....'

Deutsche Bank Research raises Man Group price target to 215 (205) pence - 'buy'

Increased holding at 36p....ex divi next Friday 29.08.25 for 3% direct impact (12% pa), oil price picking up, stock report below, rated 97/100 for value and a 12% divi, free cash generator .....broker has 100p target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1958815564828205550

Added to SEPL holding at 251p (Tuesday) on it's pull back from 269p, it has dividend pay day next Thursday and a Capital Markets day 18.09.25.

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1957737585616302347

Looks like he may have transferred some from one fund into another as his total holding was,,as you say, over 5% on last count

Allan Gray ex-SA Equity Fund Ltd Dec 31, 2023 23.3m 3.25%

Allan Gray Africa Equity Fund Limited Dec 31, 2023 13.5m 2.26%

PayPoint and Lloyds Banking Group partner to deliver over 30,000 cash deposit points across the UK.....broker has 1100p target

PayPoint today announces that it is partnering with Lloyds Banking Group to enable consumer cash deposits at over 30,000 locations through its leading retail network across the UK. Lloyds, Halifax and Bank of Scotland, part of Lloyds Banking Group, will be the first high street banks to use PayPoint's BankLocal service, giving greater access to cash services at the heart of communities across the UK.

This new service, rolling out from 26 August 2025, gives Lloyds, Halifax and Bank of Scotland customers a simple and convenient way to pay in up to £300 a day in notes and coins, with the money showing in their account within minutes. Over 99.5% of people live within one mile of a PayPoint location, with stores open long hours, seven days a week.

Local Banking and Access to cash are key organic building blocks for growth for the PayPoint Group, contributing towards the delivery of our £100m EBITDA target in the current year

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1955167209912750372

Ørsted shares sink on $9bn fundraising plan to shore wind projects

Ørsted shares tumbled by almost a third on Monday after the world’s largest offshore wind developer announced plans to raise $9.4bn. Shares in Ørsted tumbled 28 per cent in early trading

Ørsted and the wind industry are in an extraordinary situation with the adverse market development in the US on top of the past years’ macroeconomic and supply chain challenges. Ørsted and the rest of the industry are facing the challenge of high interest rates and supply chain disruptions stemming from the pandemic.

In a sign that the strains facing the company extend beyond the US, Ørsted on Monday also launched a sales process for its European onshore wind business, as it tries to focus on its core work in offshore wind.

Ørsted halted work on a large UK project in May and walked away from two projects in the US

Q1 statement guides to ‘an encouraging start to the year’ with 7.5% net revenue growth. We maintain our estimate of 10% FD EPS growth in FY 26 with growth broadening out from Parcels. 106p of FD EPS should be achievable medium term, with 5-8% net revenue growth and higher profit growth, driven by organic building blocks for growth.

Looking at the four divisions:

1) At Shopping, PayPoint is increasing the number of sites, improving the offering, and the new Store Growth Specialist team is being rolled out to increase adoption of services;

2) At Love2shop, net revenues increased 22% due to phasing and we see further opportunities for growth, including positive InComm

performance in the quarter;

3) At Payments and Banking, there have been good new wins and we expect good progress on MultiPay, Open Banking, local banking and neobanks; and

4) At Parcels, there is huge growth potential from the Royal Mail partnership, and Chinese e-tailers and networks. PayPoint’s position on the high street

differentiates it in the crowded payment space; a CY 26 P/E of 8.5x and ordinary yield of 5.4% are too cheap

Underlying group net revenues increased by 7.5% from £39.2m in Q1 25 to £42.2m in Q1 26. Eliminating the £0.9m contribution from obconnect, that represents 5.4% organic net revenue growth. We see that as an impressive result........

BUY Target Price 1100p

A pull back into the 150p area before todays results, however, market likes the forward trajectory and free cash forecast....broker has 270p target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1952630859506319683

4-Aug-25 Citigroup raises Seplat Energy price target to 325 (250) pence

31-Jul-25 Canaccord Genuity reiterates Seplat Energy Buy 456.00

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareBrokerTips.html?shareprice=SEPL&share=Seplat-Energy

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/SEPL/london-broker-ratings-jefferies-lifts-bae-systems-hsbc-cuts-shell-w1jwo9r5uclho7l.html

HSBC cuts Shell to 'hold' (buy) - price target 2,950 (previous 2,900) pence

31/07/25 SEPLAT - Canaccord Genuity Buy target price 456.00

''Expect Serica to remain highly cash generative and will maintain previous view (Green/positive), given the P/E of 5 and possible c.10% yield. The StockRanks also remain positive, at a top end ranking for quality, momentum and value 98 out of 100 (for quality, momentum and value)''

High market volatility increases the opportunity for CMCX in the market for contracts for difference traders and spread betters. This increases activity among existing clients and attracts new potential customers, driving increased trading volumes. Volatility increases the potential for larger spreads, increasing revenue per trade

CMCX have half mcap in cash and trade CFDs and financial spread betting on a range of underlying shares, indices, foreign currencies, commodities, and treasuries. Its CFDs are traded worldwide; It serves retail and institutional clients through regulated offices and branches in about 12 countries.

Investors chronicle - a highly volatile market should prove a boost for CMCX this year, with the forward price/earnings multiple of 8.5 still tracking below the 9.9 FactSet five-year average. BUY.

From CMCX rns- Full Year Results 5.06.25

Forthcoming announcement dates: November 2025 HY 2026 Results

As we enter FY 2026, CMC stands as a well-capitalised, highly cash-generative business with the vision, technology, strategy, and leadership to deliver the next phase of growth. Our two vertical model has firmly established us as a leader in multi-asset trading and technology solutions. Now, with the introduction of our third vertical, in the form of DeFi functionality, I am positioning CMC to lead the next wave of innovation.

I have dedicated most of my life to ensuring that CMC remains at the forefront of financial technology and that commitment is stronger than ever - I am fully focused and energised on ensuring we stay ahead in a rapidly evolving financial landscape. I am, and always will be, 100% dedicated to this business and I have no plans to ever retire, or to sell any of my shares.

With my clear vision and the talented team around me, I am confident CMC will continue to cement its status as a global leader and world-class financial technology business in the years to come with me at the helm.

With all the opportunities ahead of us, I am more confident and excited than ever before.

Lord Cruddas

5 June 2025

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CMCX/final-results-kt2wpkmxfq8vwkn.html

Seplat reported a strong operating performance in 1H25 with production of 135kboed up 178% YoY, reflecting both the impact of the MPNU acquisition and increased production from its legacy onshore business.

The cash flow performance was particularly strong with net debt further reduced and net debt/EBITDA at just 0.53x. The 2Q25 dividend was maintained at the new USc4.6 run rate resulting in a 53% YoY increase in the 1H25 dividend. Current guidance for 2025 was maintained.

Seplat will hold a Capital Markets Day presentation in September, pending which we are reinstating forecasts which confirm the transformational impact of the SEPNU assets, particularly the strength of free cash flow generation. Based on consensus estimates, Seplat is trading on attractive ratings versus peers.

Moreover, in terms of valuation per barrel of oil equivalent, at US$2.9/boe, Seplat is on the lowest valuation of the peer group. As further clarity develops, we expect markets to become increasingly enthusiastic about Seplat’s valuation.

For 1H25, underlying revenue jumped 202% to US$1440m with adjusted EBITDA up 175% to US$735m and net cash generated from operations up 182% to US$487m, resulting in a reduction in net debt to US$676m (US$898m at 31 December). Net profit of US$27.4m (1H24 US$49.9m) reflected the impact of higher taxation but management confidence in the profit potential of the business was underscored by the 53% YoY increase in the dividend. The tax rate for the full year is expected to fall relative to 1H25.

We have rebuilt our financial model for the company and are now reinstating forecasts where we expect rapid growth in profit and cash flow. Most striking is the strength of free cash flow generation that could see the company debt free by 2027. More likely is a combination of a higher reinvestment rate and increased dividend

Very good point Sekforde, we'll sell them at $73+ now, as oil rising again :-)

If Carlsberg did RNS ....

Results -

Revenue $1,398 million up c.231% on prior year

• Unit production operating cost of $12.5/boe below guidance of $14-$15

• Adjusted EBITDA of $735 million, up 175% on prior year

• Cash generated from operations of $766.2 million, up 239% on prior year

• Cash capital expenditure of $96.5 million (6M 2024: $102.4 million).

• Balance sheet strong, end-June cash at bank $419.4 million (3M 2025: $334.6 million),

Net Debt at end-June of $676 million down 9.5%

2Q 2025 declared dividend of US$ 4.6c/share, dividend to be revised September in line with recent company progress

Broker has 450p target

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1950441976932803024

WTI 69.160 +5%

Brent 72.575 +5%

TTF Gas 35.28 +4%

UK Gas 86.4736 +7%