Member Info for surprised

I prefer the term 'highlighting'.....and SQZ has provided opportunity, I have a core holding and I trade a few alongside to hopefully take advantage of the swings/ protect from downside, as in any share. Shares are a moving living thing and I did not simply buy a load of Sqz at 100p or 400p and sit and watch....Opportunity exists at various times and each price point has offered opportunity as in most stocks.

Sentiment has hit SQZ harder than most, the actual figures, profit, free cah flow divi etc are sound , despite government policies, and with the new bod and even aquisition away from UK it is clear that SQZ still offers very decent divi and upside.

Hope that helps explain the 'complexities'

'Valuation

Our lower oil price and production assumptions (we assume ~41 mboe/d for FY24 with US$80/bbl for Brent in 2H24) have minimal impact on our Core NAV of £2.50 and ReNAV of £2.90. We have also assumed that first oil at Buchan is delayed by a year. '

With further visibility on the UK fiscal regime expected at the end of October, the key takeaway from the announcement is Serica’s financial framework. Given the strength of the company’s balance sheet, Serica has declared an interim dividend of £0.09/sh (in line with last year). Assuming the worst case fiscal regime, Serica’s future investments in the UK will be very limited. Under such a scenario, Serica estimates that the UK business could generate >U$500-600 mm of cumulative free cash flow by YE27. This represents almost the current market cap of the company.

On our commodity price scenario and production forecast, this could be achieved as early as YE26. • This leaves ample room to continue to fund a generous dividend. By YE24, the company will have already returned ~US$130 mm to shareholders (dividends plus share buybacks) which represents >20% of the current market cap.

• We continue to value the company at £1.80 per share based on the worst case fiscal regime changes. This represents 50% upside to the current share price. Our target price is unchanged at £2.90 per share

Https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1836669872584937753

Correction, it's canadian dollar 39p..

Investor Shares of Blue Harbour Capital Securities Fund I, which reportedly have an aggregate value of C$127,400,000, or approximately C$0.70 per PetroTal common share.

Interesting, Blue Harbour took nearly 20% of PTAL in the 'off book' deal at 53p

Here's a couple of comments along the lines we're discussing I came across tonight

''I have yet to speak with an oil-specific analyst who think the pace and magnitude of this crude price rout makes sense or could be considered fundamentally justified.''

'Investors are ‘dramatically overestimating’ an oil glut, Carlyle’s Jeff Currie says - CNBC

The disconnect between paper and physical oil markets is the biggest on record. If Riyadh wanted to, it could cause some serious damage

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1833574557816344855

Hi SharkSaber, I don't know if this will help as there is often no definitive answer at times on markets, however, The paper trading desks are huge and volatility suits them as they are in a constant battle with OPEC for control. Each has a short term run of control as each 'global' situation is often exaggerated to suit each party. The frequent change of position of the major hedge funds/banks fuels volatility and clearly the large short positions on futures etc all contrbute to the volatility before a move back to long. Paper trading is often disconnected to oil fundamentals and the market for paper is bigger too, oddly, hence we often see oil prices not reflecting fully what we see as maco events.

I knew a paper oil trader who often said a stable market was no good for him and he needed frequent volatility and if it was not through natural maco events they would need to create it ! In addition he stated oil tading did not need to relfect the actual market conditions at any time as oil trading was almost a seperate 'game'.

No wonder we all struggle to understand markets at times.

With further visibility on the UK fiscal regime expected at the end of October, the key takeaway from the announcement is Serica’s financial framework. Given the strength of the company’s balance sheet, Serica has declared an interim dividend of £0.09/sh (in line with last year). Assuming the worst case fiscal regime, Serica’s future investments in the UK will be very limited. Under such a scenario, Serica estimates that the UK business could generate >U$500-600 mm of cumulative free cash flow by YE27. This represents almost the current market cap of the company. On our commodity price scenario and production forecast, this could be achieved as early as YE26. • This leaves ample room to continue to fund a generous dividend.

Valuation Our lower oil price and production assumptions (we assume ~41 mboe/d for FY24 with US$80/bbl for Brent in 2H24) have minimal impact on our Core NAV of ~£2.50/sh and ReNAV of ~£2.90/sh. We have also assumed that first oil at Buchan is delayed by a year

Our target price is unchanged at £2.90 per share

https://x.com/surprised_trade/status/1833520966477176944

For a bit of perspective, HBR who have just secured new overseas production have seen their sp retracd over recent weeks to just a few pence off their 2024 low..now just 261p from 330p

I'm happy for the board to secure the right opportunities abroad and/or UK providing they can return free cash flow, profits, divi etc...the rest is just 'noise' and over time facts and figures detemine returns

Move to main board under consideration for 2025 will attract a greater number of ii's and shows the confidence board have in their plans to lift SQZ from here...a lot to like and we have a bod who have a plan despite the governments tax regime SQZ can still grow and provide a first class dividend while we wait

Very impressed with new CEO, looks like the new SQZ board have a plan, know their stuff and despite recent poor sentiment they aim to increase production, increase share price and returns and inform the market how under valued SQZ is. They have an intial five year plan and are looking at M&A opportunities further away than Norway too...

Actually profits and cah grow faster M1rob, take a look at the research and facts ...

Meeting over -

Very good update, sound business, hugely undervalued and focus is on maintaining shareholder value, intrinsic value not reflected in share price, SQZ aim to increase production and share price

Conts- SQZ producers its mcap in three years, it's share price does not reflect the business and now with a 19% divi it really is out of sync with valution. profits and cash flow are sound, no decomissioning costs SQZ will try to get market and investors to understand how under valued business is and many people do not understand the business and sometimes make up spurious rumours etc. SQZ will try harder to alert market to it's under valuation

Upomega - it a new board and new direction

Cont...buyback shares will be cancelled going forward (some in past were not simply for technical reasons)----, not any conspiracy reasons

Continues- moving off Aim to Main board listing under consideration going into 2025

Buybacks will continue at right time, dividend payments more important ,